繁荣还是泡沫?解剖Ethena资本飞轮下的“真实采用”困局

marsbitPublished on 2025-07-29Last updated on 2025-07-30

2023 年 8 月,MakerDAO 生态借贷协议 Spark 给出 $DAI 8% 的年化收益,随后孙割分批进入,累计投入 23 万枚 $stETH,最高占 Spark 存款量 15% 以上,逼得 MakerDAO 紧急提案,把利率下调到 5%。

MakerDAO 的本意是“补贴” $DAI 的使用率,差点变成孙宇晨的 Solo Yield。

2025 年 7 月,Ethena 玩转“币-股-债”的财库策略,$sUSDe 的 APY 迅速拉升至 12% 左右,$ENA 单日大涨 20%。

作为发轫于 BTC 生态的财库策略,擦着 $SBET/$BMNR 的头角飞过,最终落在 USDe 头上。

Ethena 再次利用资本市场,在链上市场和股市成功制造 $ENA 和 $USDe 的双向飞轮。

双币系统大逃杀

USDT 创造了稳定币,USDC 占领用户合规心智,USDe 是资本捕手。

Ethena

图片说明:Ethena 资本化之路图片来源:@zuoyeweb3

在 $ENA 财库策略上线时,我下意识认为这是对当前 Strategy 风潮的简单模仿,但是在仔细复盘后,Ethena 其实是在尝试破除“双币”系统的魔咒。

魔咒是链上稳定币发行方,必须在协议代币币价和稳定币市占率二选一

• Aave 选择赋能 $AAVE 三个月币价上涨 83.4%,但是 $GHO 发行量只有 3 亿美元

• MakerDAO 演化而来 Sky 三个月币价上涨 43.2%,$USDS 发行量 75 亿美元

• Ethena 代币 ENA 三个月币价上涨 94.2%,$USDe 发行量 76 亿美元

再加上崩盘的 Luna-UST 双代币系统,就会发现维持二者之间的平衡无比困难,根本原因是协议收入有限,导流至市占率,则代币价格不稳,反之亦然。

在整个稳定币市场中,这是 USDT 开启的后来者壁垒,USDT 发明了稳定币赛道,自然不需要烦恼,Circle 就需要把利润分享给合作伙伴,但是依然不会分享给 USDC 持有人。

Ethena 通过贿赂机制,将 ENA 作为利润“期权”分享给 CEX 合作伙伴,暂时安抚住大户、投资者和 CEX,优先保护 USDe 持有人的分红权。

根据 A1 Research 的测算,Ethena 自成立以来,将大约 4 亿美元的利润通过 sUSDe 形式分享给 USDe 持有人,突破了 USDT/USDC 设下的进入门槛。

Ethena 不仅在稳定币市占率反超 Sky(不计算 DAI 残留份额),而且在主代币项目的表现上超越 Aave,这并不是偶然。

Ethena 的 ENA 价格上涨固然有上所 Upbit 刺激的因素,但是 Ethena 正在深度改造双币系统的价值传递方式,通过引入股市财库策略。

回到之前的问题,优先保护 USDe 市占率之外,ENA 的分红权依然需要兑现,Ethena 的选择是模仿财库策略推出 StablecoinX,但是对其进行改造。

• BTC 财库策略,以 Strategy 为例,押注的是 BTC 长期价格向上的涨势,60 万枚 BTC 的持有量是上涨助燃剂,也会是下跌时的地狱;

• ETH 财库策略,以 Bitmine(BMNR)为例,押注的是自身最终能买入 5% 的流通份额,成为新庄,走股市孙割、易理华之路,赚的是波动趋势。

• BNB/SOL/HYPE 财库策略,是项目基金会或单一实体拉高股价以刺激本币增长,这是最跟风的一批,因为这些资产还没有取得 BTC/ETH 类似的市场价值。

ENA 的财库 StablecoinX 和以上都不太一样,从表面上看,是 ENA 链上实体注资和募资,花费 2.6 亿美元购买 8% 的 ENA 流通量,左手倒右手刺激 ENA 价格上涨。

市场对此反应积极,Ethena TVL、USDe 供应量、以及 sUSDe APY 应声上涨,不过注意,sUSDe 本质是协议的负债,ENA 的销售收入才是利润。

StablecoinX 减少 ENA 流通量,刺激二级市场的销售增长,其中的沟通成本是可控的,Ethena 和出资人 Pantera、Dragonfly、Wintermute 协商即可。

其中,Dragonfly 是 Ethena 种子轮领投方、Wintermute 也是参投方,相比于新出资,这更像是会计记账。

Ethena 走的是资本操盘路,成功在双币系统大逃亡,这应该是 Luna-UST 后的最大稳定币创新。

真实采用仍未发生

当虚假的繁荣被破坏时,那些根植已久的东西便会暴露出来。

ENA 新上涨趋势就是项目利润来源之一,USDe/sUSDe 的持有量也会随之增长,最起码现在 USDe 有成为真正的应用型稳定币的可能。

ENA 的财库策略模仿 BNB/SOL/HYPE,拉高收益率刺激稳定币采用,既可以赚取波动趋势,协商机制下的高控盘也减轻下跌时的抛压。

资本运作只能刺激币价,稳定 USDe 和 ENA 的增长飞轮后,长期发展依然需要 USDe 的真实应用,才能覆盖做市成本。

Ethena

图片说明:Ethena 生态扩张

 

图片来源:@Jonasoeth

在这一点上,Ethena 向来是链下和链上两条腿走路:

• 链上:Ethena 长期和 Pendle 合作,一起盘活链上利率市场,并且和 Hyperliquid 逐步合作,在内部也扶持 Ethreal 作为 Perp DEX 备选

• 链下:和贝莱德合作伙伴 Securitize 合作发行 Converge EVM 链,瞄准机构采用,最新 Genius Act 后和 Anchorage Digital 加大合规稳定币 USDtb 发行量。

另外,Anchorage Digital 和 Galaxy Digital 都是最近的大火机构,某种意义上,他们是 Jump Trading/Alameda Research 后的第三波做市主力,第二波是 DWF/ Wintermute 等做市商,留待以后详述。

Ethena 在链上链下资本局之外,真正的现实采用仍然乏善可陈。

相较于 USDT 和 USDC,USDe/USDtb 在跨境支付、代币化基金、DEX/CEX 计价方面都只是浅尝辄止,唯一称道还是和 TON 的合作,DeFi 协议的合作很难走入千家万户。

如果 Ethena 的目的就是链上 DeFi,那么目前已经非常成功,但是如果进入链下的机构采用和散户使用,那只能说万里长征刚走完第一步。

此外,ENA 隐忧出现,费用开关(Fee Switch)也在路上,还记得 Ethena 目前只分润给 USDe 持有人吗,费用协议开关要求 ENA 持有人通过 sENA 分享收益。

Ethena 通过 ENA 稳定 CEX 换取 USDe 生存空间,通过财库策略稳住 ENA 大户、投资人利益,但是该来的始终躲不过,一旦 ENA 开始分享协议收入,ENA 也会成为 Ethena 的债务而非收入。

只有真正的变成 USDT/USDC 类似物,ENA 才能进入真正的造血周期,现在依然是在辗转腾挪,压力从来不会真正消失。

结语

Ethena 的资本操盘,给于更多稳定币、YBS(生息稳定币)项目方启发,即使是 Genius Act 合规支付稳定币,也没说不能以 RWA 上链计息。

继 Ethena 之后,Resolv 也宣布激活费用开关协议,但是暂时不会真正分润给代币持有人,说到底,协议收入分润的前提是要有协议收入。

Uniswap 多年谨慎对待费用开关,核心是要在 LP 和 UNI 持有人之间取得协议收入最大化,而目前大部分 YBS/稳定币项目方还缺乏持久收益能力。

资本刺激是起搏器,真实采用是造血蛋白。

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