价值19亿美元ETH集体排队解质押的真正原因竟然是......

Odaily星球日报Published on 2025-07-24Last updated on 2025-07-24

Abstract

一位HTX巨鲸大额提现造成链上连锁反应。

原文来自 Galaxy
编译｜Odaily星球日报 Golem（@web3_golem）

价值19亿美元ETH集体排队解质押的真正原因竟然是......


从 7 月 16 日开始，ETH 的解质押请求数量急剧增加，验证者退出队列的数量从 1, 920 人飙升至 7 月 22 日的 475, 000 多人，等待时间从不到一小时增加到八天以上。虽然由于 ETH 近期价格表现优异以及近期 ETH Pectra 升级对验证者质押要求的调整，解质押活动有所增加是意料之中的，但此次急剧飙升主要是由 7 月 16 日开始的 ETH 借贷利率飙升所致。利率飙升引发了 ETH 循环贷策略的普遍平仓，这反过来又加剧了基于 ETH 的流动性质押和再质押代币（LST 和 LRT）的脱钩压力。

价值19亿美元ETH集体排队解质押的真正原因竟然是......


ETH 验证者队列退出等待时间和解质押请求


以太坊质押队列


以太坊的质押退出队列是一种内置机制，旨在管理验证者从网络中有序提取质押资金。为了维护网络稳定性并防止大规模验证者退出危及共识，以太坊限制了每个周期（epoch）内可以退出的验证者数量。此限制称为流失限制 (churn limit)，它会随着活跃验证者的总数而变化，每个周期（约每 6.4 分钟）大约允许 8 到 10 个验证者退出。当验证者发起自愿退出时，他们会进入队列，必须等待轮到自己才能被处理。退出后，需要等待一段时间（约 27 小时）才能提取资金。在退出需求旺盛的时期，队列可能会严重拥堵，导致等待时间长达数天甚至数周。


本周并非是以太坊首次出现解质押积压的情况。 2024 年 1 月，由于破产的加密货币借贷机构 Celsius 进行重组，需要提取 55 万枚 ETH，排队等待时间长达六天。


ETH 循环贷策略因借贷利率飙升而失效


从 7 月 14 日开始，Aave DeFi 协议上的 ETH 借贷利率开始周期性飙升。虽然借贷利率通常在 2% 到 3% 之间，但在 7 月 16 日、 18 日和 21 日，该利率飙升至 18% 。剧烈的波动是由 Aave 平台上 ETH 供应量的急剧减少引起的，而这源于一个关联到 HTX 交易所的钱包从平台上进行大量提现。从 6 月 18 日开始，该钱包提取了超过 16.7 万 ETH。ETH 存款量的突然减少给在 Aave 上运行 ETH 循环贷策略的用户带来了压力，也导致了部分赎回请求的激增。


循环贷策略是加密货币交易者广泛使用的一种策略，旨在提升 ETH 质押收益率。其常见形式是，用户在 Aave 等平台上存入流动性质押代币 (LST) 或流动性再质押代币 (LRT) 作为抵押品，并借入 ETH，然后将其兑换回 LST 并重新存入，如此反复，不断积累杠杆敞口。当质押收益率超过 ETH 借贷利率时，该策略即可盈利，用户可从中赚取利差。该策略可以手动执行，也可以通过 EtherFi 和 Instadapp 等协议提供的自动化金库执行。

价值19亿美元ETH集体排队解质押的真正原因竟然是......


ETH 质押年利率与 Aave wETH 借贷利率之间的利差（百分点）
然而，自 7 月 16 日开始的 ETH 供应紧缩之后，质押收益率与 ETH 借贷成本之间的利差变为负值。到 7 月 21 日，利差已跌至 -2.25% ，使得该策略无法盈利。这引发了交易者集体平仓，用户开始提取其提供的 ETH、偿还贷款并逐步降低仓位杠杆。由于许多交易者使用 LST 或 LRT 作为抵押品，他们需要将这些资产换回 ETH 或解除抵押。这给 LST/LRT 二级市场和以太坊验证者退出队列带来了进一步的压力。

价值19亿美元ETH集体排队解质押的真正原因竟然是......


ETH 流动性质押/再质押代币低于面值
随着借贷利率攀升，LST 和 LRT 开始进一步与 ETH 脱钩。LST/LRTS 通常以略低于 ETH 的价格交易，以弥补以太坊退出队列造成的赎回延迟、DEX 流动性有限以及特定于协议的风险（例如罚没或智能合约风险）。在强制去杠杆或赎回期间，这种抛售压力会将 LST/LRT 价格进一步推低至面值以下。此外，自动循环贷金库对中断的反应也有所不同。有些金库选择解除抵押，而有些则直接在二级市场出售。例如，截至今日，EtherFi 的 Liquid 策略在以太坊退出队列中约有 20, 000 个 ETH。


进一步加剧队列拥堵的是，某些市场参与者开始利用 LST/LRT 脱钩进行套利。通过在二级市场上以折扣价购买 LST/LRT，并通过赎回抵押品将其兑换成 ETH 的全额价值，他们可以赚取两者之间的价差。这导致 ETH 退出队列请求数量激增。


质押和成为验证者排队需求升温


赎回抵押品请求的激增被新增抵押品需求的激增所抵消。自 6 月以来，ETH 抵押请求和成为验证者的排队长度已升至 2024 年 4 月以来的最高水平。

价值19亿美元ETH集体排队解质押的真正原因竟然是......


ETH 验证者队列进入等待时间和质押请求


这是由于 ETH 近期表现优于比特币，以及多家数字资产财务公司（DATCO）的成立，这些公司在近几个月购买了超过 25 亿美元的 ETH，从而引发了人们对 ETH 的热情。
展望


虽然未质押 ETH 的总体数据最初可能暗示着一波获利回吐，但仔细观察就会发现，大部分活动是由 ETH 借贷市场的波动以及自 7 月 16 日开始的借贷利率大幅上升所驱动的。同时新的质押需求保持强劲，几乎抵消了持续的提现量，投资者不必恐慌。


尽管需求有所上升，但 ETH 的质押架构仍按预期运行。虽然有些人可能会抱怨排队时间大幅增加，但这是网络的一个特性，而非缺陷。它旨在限制验证者进入或退出的速度，从而保护以太坊权益证明 (PoS) 共识机制的稳定性和安全性。


然而，这一事件凸显了 ETH 流动性质押和再质押生态系统的持续脆弱性。这些资产对杠杆策略仍然敏感，并且在极端市场条件下容易承受压力。LST/LRT 脱钩和赎回延迟的广泛影响，强化了考虑期限风险和流动性瓶颈的重要性。


展望未来，仅依赖以太坊原生退出机制的协议可能会面临更严格的审查。我们预计，人们对提高赎回灵活性的解决方案的兴趣将日益增长，例如点对点退出市场、改进的 LST/LRT 自动做市商 (AMM)，以及旨在缓解退出队列拥堵和平滑资金流动的协议原生流动性金库。

Trending Cryptos

ctr
CitreaCTR
wstusdt
wrapped stUSDTWSTUSDT
apr
aPrioriAPR
ctx
Cryptex FinanceCTX
audio
AudiusAUDIO
comp
CompoundCOMP
mantra
MantraMANTRA
xvs
VenusXVS
waxl
AxelarWAXL
bill
Billions NetworkBILL
pyth
PYTH (Pyth)PYTH
rune
THORChainRUNE
velodrome
Velodrome FinanceVELODROME
brev
BrevisBREV
zrx
ZRX（0X）ZRX

Related Reads

GLM Hits a Trillion, Will DeepSeek Be Far Behind?

Zhipu AI, a Chinese AI company, has reached a market capitalization exceeding HK$1 trillion, with its stock rising over 1900% this year. Its valuation now rivals half of Alibaba's, highlighting intense market speculation around Chinese AI firms. Despite 2025 revenues of only ¥7.24 billion and a net loss of ¥47.18 billion, investors are pricing in massive future growth, driven by its GLM-5.2 model and its positioning as China's potential answer to Anthropic. The surge reflects a broader trend: soaring valuations for AI companies across primary and secondary markets. DeepSeek's latest funding round valued it over $50 billion, while other players like MiniMax and StepFun are also targeting listings. This capital influx is concentrated in hard tech and AI within Hong Kong's IPO market. However, concerns about a bubble are mounting. Zhipu's high valuation, volatile trading, and impending share lock-up expiries pose near-term risks. The core challenge for Zhipu and its peers is transforming advanced model capabilities into sustainable revenue and profit, following the path of Anthropic which is nearing operational profitability. The trillion-HK dollar mark for Zhipu represents a symbolic peak for China's AI industry, but its permanence hinges on demonstrable commercial success.

marsbit42m ago

GLM Hits a Trillion, Will DeepSeek Be Far Behind?

marsbit42m ago

BTC Market Pulse: Week 26

Bitcoin's market activity has cooled as it consolidates after a strong recovery. Spot trading volume has decreased, and order flow has shifted to net selling. While price momentum remains constructive, institutional demand has softened, evidenced by continued net outflows from US spot ETFs and lower on-chain transfer volumes. Derivatives markets show a cautious stance. Futures open interest is stable, but declining perpetual buying pressure and a rise in demand for downside protection indicate a more defensive trader posture. Beneath the surface, supply dynamics remain supportive. Supply is increasingly held by long-term holders, profitability is high, and realized gains are increasing. A slight rise in active short-term capital could lead to higher volatility. Overall, Bitcoin is range-bound. Fading momentum and moderated participation are balanced by resilient holder behavior, stable futures positioning, and healthy profitability, creating a foundation that awaits the next major market catalyst.

insights.glassnode6h ago

BTC Market Pulse: Week 26

insights.glassnode6h ago

Infamous MEV Bot JaredFromSubway Drained For $7.5 Million

The notorious Ethereum MEV bot "JaredFromSubway" has been drained of approximately $7.5 million after attackers tricked its automated system. Security firm Blockaid reported that the bot was deceived into approving malicious trading routes by attacker-controlled contracts. These approvals were then used to siphon WETH, USDC, and USDT from the bot's contract. The incident is ironic as MEV bots are designed to exploit minute market advantages, but in this case, its own automation became the vulnerability. The attack specifically targeted the bot's trading logic, not the Ethereum protocol or a broader DeFi application. It underscores a critical risk in automated trading: the pursuit of speed can create fragility, making systems susceptible to carefully crafted traps. While the financial loss is significant, the broader impact is reputational for MEV infrastructure. It serves as a warning that automated systems granting token approvals require stringent safeguards, simulation, and route verification. The event is considered a targeted exploit on a trading bot, not a network-wide security issue.

bitcoinist8h ago

Infamous MEV Bot JaredFromSubway Drained For $7.5 Million

bitcoinist8h ago

Report Interpretation: J.P. Morgan Details Micron's Pre-Earnings Sentiment, Current Hardware Sector Dynamics

Morgan Stanley analyst Joshua Meyers' report (June 21, 2026) highlights key trends in the hardware and semiconductor sector ahead of Micron's earnings. The core takeaways are: 1. **Micron & Memory:** Memory remains a high-conviction long theme, driven by strong AI demand and rising ASPs. However, investor focus is shifting to the sustainability of Micron's >80% gross margins and the specifics of potential new long-term supply agreements (SCAs). 2. **Hardware Supply Chain:** AI-related demand for servers, networking, and storage remains robust, but company performance is diverging. Celestica (CLS) shows improved margin confidence, Western Digital and Seagate benefit from pricing, Fabrinet (FN) sees predictable AI optics growth, and Teradyne (TER) anticipates a new Google customer. 3. **AI Capex & WFE Forecasts:** JPMorgan increased its Wafer Fab Equipment (WFE) market growth forecasts to 28% in 2026 and 29% in 2027. AI infrastructure financing is evolving, with higher project-level debt reducing constraints on capex expansion. The report signals that while the AI-driven hardware cycle is strong, the market is entering a phase focused on execution verification (e.g., Micron's SCA details, Fabrinet's ramp with Amazon) and valuation sustainability. Key near-term signals include Micron's guidance, Arista Networks' outlook, and the pace of demand normalization post potential tariff-related pull-ins.

marsbit9h ago

Report Interpretation: J.P. Morgan Details Micron's Pre-Earnings Sentiment, Current Hardware Sector Dynamics

marsbit9h ago

Research Report Analysis: The Fed's New Chair's Debut – New Leader, But Same Script?

Report Analysis: Federal Reserve's New Chair Debut – A New Captain, But the Same Script? Morgan Stanley's chief global economist Seth B. Carpenter analyzes the first FOMC meeting under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh in a June 21 report. Warsh deliberately avoided providing forward guidance on interest rates, aligning with his philosophy. However, market expectations for a rate hike this year were reinforced. Key signals lie elsewhere: inflation may fall more than expected, and quantitative tightening (QT) could be more aggressive than anticipated. The FOMC's "dot plot" suggests only one rate hike in 2026. Carpenter argues that if inflation undershoots forecasts, the logic for even a single hike weakens, especially as projections indicate potential rate cuts in 2027. On QT, Warsh's stance is clear. Carpenter notes that measures like halving the Treasury's account balance could shrink the Fed's balance sheet by around $500 billion with minimal market impact. Combined with adjustments to reserve interest and liquidity rules, the ultimate QT scale may exceed expectations, though its market effect might be less disruptive unless the Fed actively sells Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS). While Warsh initiated a review of the Fed's policy framework, the 2% inflation target remains intact for now. The report concludes that the market may be overestimating the significance of reduced forward guidance and the near-term rate hike risk, while potentially underestimating the scope and manageable nature of the coming balance sheet reduction. The key debates will hinge on upcoming core PCE data, the specifics of the QT path, and the framework review's findings.

marsbit9h ago

Research Report Analysis: The Fed's New Chair's Debut – New Leader, But Same Script?

marsbit9h ago

Trading

Spot
Futures

Hot Articles

Discussions

Welcome to the HTX Community. Here, you can stay informed about the latest platform developments and gain access to professional market insights. Users' opinions on the price of ETH (ETH) are presented below.

活动图片

Top Questions