ETH和BTC本周疯涨的幕后推手！山寨季爆发仅差临门一脚？

投研日志Published on 2025-07-23Last updated on 2026-06-23

Abstract

不是 ETH 涨就一定会有山寨季

作者：Phyrex

结论在最后，不耐烦读的小伙伴可以直接拉到最底部，当然这都是我个人的看法，未必一定是对的。

上周我重点讲了 $ETH 拉升的原因，这周会更加系统的讲解，而且 ETH 和 罗素2000 的重合性也是需要考虑的，即便是从目前的状态来看，ETH 仍然是和罗素2000 保持非常紧密的重合度，这意味的是已经有投资者开始把资金下注到板块轮动上了，所以不仅仅是 ETH 可能会带来的加密货币山寨季，甚至是罗素2000 也可能会体现出美股山寨季的情况。

不过目前下定论是不是会有山寨季还早了一点。

那么现在 ETH 遇到的情况是什么样的呢？从转入交易所的数据可以明显的看到，在 ETH 的价格超过 2,400 美元以后，转入交易所准备抛售的 ETH 是在持续上升的，尤其是在最近两周 ETH 的价格超过 2,500 美元和 3,000 美元以后，转入交易所的 ETH 数据已经和2024年底 ETH 冲击 4,000 美元时候的抛售量不相上下了，所以如果单纯的从抛售量来看，确实目前遇到的压力会很大。

其实不仅仅是 ETH 是这样的，就是 $BTC 也是同样的，交易所转入准备抛售的 BTC 在价格突破 115,000 美元以后也出现了激增的现象，只是相比于 ETH 来说，BTC 的抛售并不是非常强烈，相比于 2024年12月 冲击10万美元的时候还有一定的差距，这也说明了起码从抛售情况来看，ETH 投资者会比 BTC 的投资者需求更加旺盛。

但从转出交易所的数据来看，ETH则出现了明显的提升，同样是和 2024年底相比，目前转出交易所的数量要远高于当初，这也说明了目前两周交易所的投资者开始买入了更多的的 ETH ，但这种买入量是让 ETH 价格上涨的主要原因吗？我并不是这么想的。

从最近一年交易所中 ETH 的净流量来看，全年几乎都是以转出为主，实际上转入交易所导致的抛售并不是非常的多，感觉这一年都有投资者在大量的吸筹，但 ETH 的价格在这一年中反而是在不断的过山车，甚至还有在四月跌破 1,400 美元的时候，而这段时间吸筹比现在还多。

再看交易所的存量数据，这个数据看上去就比较明显了，虽然交易所存量的 ETH 是在减少的，但主要的减少阶段是在价格 1,700 美元到 2,500 美元之间，超过 2,500 美元以后变化的幅度是较低的，尤其是上涨到超过 3,000 美元以后，才能看到购买力明显的增加，在抛售增加的情况下，购买力增加，才能减少交易所的存量，而在这之前则是因为抛售量的降低导致了价格上涨，而并不是因为购买力有太大的变化。

而且从 ETH 在 Coinbase 和 Binance 的成交量来看，虽然最近两周是有提升的迹象，但并没有本质上的上升，因此还是可以得出同样的结论，就是交易所的购买力虽然有提高，但提高量还是较为有限的，除了用户的 FOMO 情绪以外，更大的可能性还是卖出量的减少。

当然，毕竟和 BTC 相比，ETH 还有一部分的买卖量是在链上，这部分就较难统计了，但除了链上以外，还有一个非常重要的地方，就是现货 ETF 的购买力。现货 ETF 中购买主力主要就是贝莱德，富达和灰度这三家，我们分别看看这三家四个产品的成交量情况。

贝莱德

富达

灰度

灰度 Mini

可以明显看到这四支的成交量都是有明显的提升状态，除了灰度的 $ETHE 因为开始转换的原因会出现成交量上升的情况，但总的来看，都是一个成交量明显上升的情况，尤其是贝莱德的 $ETHA 更是其中最明显的，尤其是从 ETH 的价格在 1,700 美元以后成交量就有明显的提升，甚至超过了2024年的水平，而在价格超过 2,500 美元以后更是带动了其它几支基金成交量的大幅上涨。

甚至是远高于2024年 ETH 的价格上升到 4,000 美元时候的成交量，这也说明了在交易所变化量不大的同时，ETF 的购买力是价格上涨的一个重要因素，而且尤其是贝莱德的投资者，更是重点中的重点因素。

贝莱德

富达

灰度

同样的数据在 BTC 就没有那么明显，同样也是贝莱德，富达和灰度，但可以明显的看到即便是成交量最高的 $IBIT 也就是维持在均值附近，不但没有明显的提高，反而还有少许的下降，而富达和灰度则是直接成交量明显的下降，说明相对于 ETH 来说，虽然 BTC 的现货 ETF 也带来了一些购买力，但 BTC 上涨的主要逻辑并不是购买力大幅提升，而是抛售量非常的低，反而是 ETH 能明显看到 ETH 购买力的上升。

所以结合罗素2000的情况来看，应该是更多的投资者在笃定（博弈）板块轮动，甚至是不排除先是美股的小盘股出现了轮动的趋势，所以才有更多的资金不仅仅关注在小盘股，也开始关注到 ETH 和 加密货币的山寨币板块，希望也能出现板块轮动的可能。但是不是能出现山寨季，除了ETH 上涨这个优先条件以外，还需要看是否能有溢出资金的带动。

历史上已经教育过我们几次了，并不是 BTC 涨就一定 ETH 涨，并不是 ETH 涨就一定会有山寨季，在 ETH 突破 4,000 美元的时候，山寨季也就是这么点时间，上涨的幅度也就是一般，而如果购买力都是由现货ETF带动的，那么很有可能和BTC当初一样，没有足够的溢出资金，那么山寨季要么就是不会出现，要么就是昙花一现。

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