ETH和BTC本周疯涨的幕后推手！山寨季爆发仅差临门一脚？

投研日志Published on 2025-07-23Last updated on 2026-08-22

Abstract

不是 ETH 涨就一定会有山寨季

作者：Phyrex

结论在最后，不耐烦读的小伙伴可以直接拉到最底部，当然这都是我个人的看法，未必一定是对的。

上周我重点讲了 $ETH 拉升的原因，这周会更加系统的讲解，而且 ETH 和 罗素2000 的重合性也是需要考虑的，即便是从目前的状态来看，ETH 仍然是和罗素2000 保持非常紧密的重合度，这意味的是已经有投资者开始把资金下注到板块轮动上了，所以不仅仅是 ETH 可能会带来的加密货币山寨季，甚至是罗素2000 也可能会体现出美股山寨季的情况。

不过目前下定论是不是会有山寨季还早了一点。

那么现在 ETH 遇到的情况是什么样的呢？从转入交易所的数据可以明显的看到，在 ETH 的价格超过 2,400 美元以后，转入交易所准备抛售的 ETH 是在持续上升的，尤其是在最近两周 ETH 的价格超过 2,500 美元和 3,000 美元以后，转入交易所的 ETH 数据已经和2024年底 ETH 冲击 4,000 美元时候的抛售量不相上下了，所以如果单纯的从抛售量来看，确实目前遇到的压力会很大。

其实不仅仅是 ETH 是这样的，就是 $BTC 也是同样的，交易所转入准备抛售的 BTC 在价格突破 115,000 美元以后也出现了激增的现象，只是相比于 ETH 来说，BTC 的抛售并不是非常强烈，相比于 2024年12月 冲击10万美元的时候还有一定的差距，这也说明了起码从抛售情况来看，ETH 投资者会比 BTC 的投资者需求更加旺盛。

但从转出交易所的数据来看，ETH则出现了明显的提升，同样是和 2024年底相比，目前转出交易所的数量要远高于当初，这也说明了目前两周交易所的投资者开始买入了更多的的 ETH ，但这种买入量是让 ETH 价格上涨的主要原因吗？我并不是这么想的。

从最近一年交易所中 ETH 的净流量来看，全年几乎都是以转出为主，实际上转入交易所导致的抛售并不是非常的多，感觉这一年都有投资者在大量的吸筹，但 ETH 的价格在这一年中反而是在不断的过山车，甚至还有在四月跌破 1,400 美元的时候，而这段时间吸筹比现在还多。

再看交易所的存量数据，这个数据看上去就比较明显了，虽然交易所存量的 ETH 是在减少的，但主要的减少阶段是在价格 1,700 美元到 2,500 美元之间，超过 2,500 美元以后变化的幅度是较低的，尤其是上涨到超过 3,000 美元以后，才能看到购买力明显的增加，在抛售增加的情况下，购买力增加，才能减少交易所的存量，而在这之前则是因为抛售量的降低导致了价格上涨，而并不是因为购买力有太大的变化。

而且从 ETH 在 Coinbase 和 Binance 的成交量来看，虽然最近两周是有提升的迹象，但并没有本质上的上升，因此还是可以得出同样的结论，就是交易所的购买力虽然有提高，但提高量还是较为有限的，除了用户的 FOMO 情绪以外，更大的可能性还是卖出量的减少。

当然，毕竟和 BTC 相比，ETH 还有一部分的买卖量是在链上，这部分就较难统计了，但除了链上以外，还有一个非常重要的地方，就是现货 ETF 的购买力。现货 ETF 中购买主力主要就是贝莱德，富达和灰度这三家，我们分别看看这三家四个产品的成交量情况。

贝莱德

富达

灰度

灰度 Mini

可以明显看到这四支的成交量都是有明显的提升状态，除了灰度的 $ETHE 因为开始转换的原因会出现成交量上升的情况，但总的来看，都是一个成交量明显上升的情况，尤其是贝莱德的 $ETHA 更是其中最明显的，尤其是从 ETH 的价格在 1,700 美元以后成交量就有明显的提升，甚至超过了2024年的水平，而在价格超过 2,500 美元以后更是带动了其它几支基金成交量的大幅上涨。

甚至是远高于2024年 ETH 的价格上升到 4,000 美元时候的成交量，这也说明了在交易所变化量不大的同时，ETF 的购买力是价格上涨的一个重要因素，而且尤其是贝莱德的投资者，更是重点中的重点因素。

贝莱德

富达

灰度

同样的数据在 BTC 就没有那么明显，同样也是贝莱德，富达和灰度，但可以明显的看到即便是成交量最高的 $IBIT 也就是维持在均值附近，不但没有明显的提高，反而还有少许的下降，而富达和灰度则是直接成交量明显的下降，说明相对于 ETH 来说，虽然 BTC 的现货 ETF 也带来了一些购买力，但 BTC 上涨的主要逻辑并不是购买力大幅提升，而是抛售量非常的低，反而是 ETH 能明显看到 ETH 购买力的上升。

所以结合罗素2000的情况来看，应该是更多的投资者在笃定（博弈）板块轮动，甚至是不排除先是美股的小盘股出现了轮动的趋势，所以才有更多的资金不仅仅关注在小盘股，也开始关注到 ETH 和 加密货币的山寨币板块，希望也能出现板块轮动的可能。但是不是能出现山寨季，除了ETH 上涨这个优先条件以外，还需要看是否能有溢出资金的带动。

历史上已经教育过我们几次了，并不是 BTC 涨就一定 ETH 涨，并不是 ETH 涨就一定会有山寨季，在 ETH 突破 4,000 美元的时候，山寨季也就是这么点时间，上涨的幅度也就是一般，而如果购买力都是由现货ETF带动的，那么很有可能和BTC当初一样，没有足够的溢出资金，那么山寨季要么就是不会出现，要么就是昙花一现。

Trending Cryptos

ctr
CitreaCTR
wstusdt
wrapped stUSDTWSTUSDT
apr
CapricornAPR
audio
AudiusAUDIO
comp
CompoundCOMP
mantra
MantraMANTRA
xvs
VenusXVS
waxl
AxelarWAXL
bill
Billions NetworkBILL
pyth
PYTH (Pyth)PYTH
rune
THORChainRUNE
velodrome
Velodrome FinanceVELODROME
brev
BrevisBREV
zrx
ZRX（0X）ZRX
cake
PancakeSwapCAKE

Related Reads

Goldman Sachs' Summary After Silicon Valley Investigation: Agents Enter the Execution Era, AI Competition Shifts to Workflows, World Models Rise

Based on a recent field research in Silicon Valley, Goldman Sachs highlights a key shift in the AI industry: moving from systems that "answer questions" to autonomous AI agents that "execute tasks." Commercial models are transitioning from per-seat subscriptions to usage- and outcome-based pricing. The competition is shifting from raw model capability to mastery over specific business workflows, with value accruing to proprietary data, domain context, and operational expertise. A major hurdle for enterprise Agent deployment is not technical ability but "controllability"—issues of accountability, auditability, and error correction, especially in regulated fields. Workflows with clear rules, verifiable outcomes, and reversible actions (e.g., invoice processing) are being automated first. The model landscape is evolving toward a division of labor. Frontier models (like GPT-4) are expected to handle high-value, high-reliability core tasks, while improving open-source models will likely capture the majority (~90%) of inference tokens for standardized, high-volume tasks due to cost advantages. Finally, attention is moving from Large Language Models (LLMs) to "World Models," which understand physical environments, causality, and dynamic interactions. This shift elevates the importance of proprietary, real-world data (from industrial, scientific, and robotic systems) and could drive a second wave of compute demand. Goldman Sachs projects compute needs could grow ~24x over five years, benefiting cloud and infrastructure providers.

marsbit4m ago

Goldman Sachs' Summary After Silicon Valley Investigation: Agents Enter the Execution Era, AI Competition Shifts to Workflows, World Models Rise

marsbit4m ago

Fidelity Warns: The Boom in AI Agents May Not Be a Feast for Public Blockchains

Fidelity Digital Assets cautions that the anticipated boom in AI agents does not automatically guarantee a corresponding surge in public blockchain adoption or token value. While AI agents that can autonomously perform tasks like payments and data calls could theoretically utilize blockchain for settlement, a significant gap exists between "can use" and "must use." The analysis highlights six key risks. First, many AI agents, especially in corporate settings, may prefer closed, permissioned systems over public blockchains due to needs for speed, cost, compliance, and control. Second, increased on-chain transactions from AI-driven micropayments may not benefit native tokens if fees remain low or if value is captured by stablecoins and payment service providers instead. Third, while AI lowers development costs and increases the number of projects, more code does not equal more economic value and can lead to market oversaturation. Fourth, AI commoditizes coding, making pure technological advantage less of a sustainable moat; competition may shift to brand, liquidity, and user networks. Fifth, AI can also lower the cost of attacks by making vulnerability discovery easier, potentially outpacing security auditing and increasing ecosystem risk. Sixth, institutions may require "controlled blockchain" systems with robust identity, permissioning, and audit trails, conflicting with the permissionless nature of public chains. Ultimately, Fidelity argues against simply equating AI growth with blockchain prosperity. The narrative requires moving from speculation to a concrete analysis of which infrastructures can convert real AI agent needs into sustainable economic value, critically examining each step of the assumed value chain.

marsbit4m ago

Fidelity Warns: The Boom in AI Agents May Not Be a Feast for Public Blockchains

marsbit4m ago

Telegram Introduces WEB-Proxy Technology: Masks Traffic as Regular Website Visits

Telegram has introduced a new experimental WEB-Proxy technology designed to circumvent blocking by disguising messenger traffic as regular, secure website visits. Announced on August 21, 2026, the technology routes MTProxy data through an in-app WebView using HTTPS or WebSocket transport, making the data stream indistinguishable from legitimate web surfing. The core innovation is a multiplexed stream sent through a single WebView session. It uses special frame formats to pack multiple logical Telegram connections into one encrypted channel that externally resembles loading a web page. A server-side relay receives this stream, separates it into individual connections for the standard MTProxy, without decrypting content or knowing final destinations, thus preserving privacy. The WEB-Proxy operates on a standard HTTPS domain that also hosts a public website. The proxy bridge page is only activated by a specific URL parameter derived via HMAC-SHA256 from the proxy configuration; all other requests receive the normal site homepage. This provides reliable cover against automated detection systems. Currently a proof-of-concept, the system includes a desktop implementation, an experimental Android client, and plans for iOS support. The technology represents a shift towards more sophisticated integration with legitimate web infrastructure, complicating filtering systems that must choose between blocking HTTPS traffic entirely or allowing service access. Its long-term value will depend on resilience to adaptive traffic analysis and scalability without performance loss.

cryptonews.ru20m ago

Telegram Introduces WEB-Proxy Technology: Masks Traffic as Regular Website Visits

cryptonews.ru20m ago

Justin Sun Declares War on Altcoin: 'It Freezes User Assets Through a Hidden Function'

Justin Sun has declared war on the altcoin $USD1, accusing World Liberty Financial (WLF) of embedding "backdoor functions" in its stablecoin that could allow the company to freeze or destroy user assets. In a statement via X, Sun detailed his ongoing legal battle with WLF. He claims his legal team successfully opposed WLF's attempt to move their dispute into private arbitration, keeping the case public in a California federal court. Through this process, Sun alleges he discovered $USD1 has similar hidden authorization mechanisms that grant WLF unilateral control over user funds, posing a significant counterparty risk. Sun also raised concerns about WLF's financial health. He questioned the company's ability to cover potential liabilities, including his own claims which could reach hundreds of millions of dollars. He emphasized that the roughly $4 billion in collateral backing $USD1 belongs to its users and cannot be used to satisfy company obligations. Sun urged investors to exercise "extreme caution." WLF has not yet issued an official response to these allegations. Sun's claims remain unproven at this stage.

cryptonews.ru1h ago

Justin Sun Declares War on Altcoin: 'It Freezes User Assets Through a Hidden Function'

cryptonews.ru1h ago

MiCA is coming for DeFi vaults, but regulation will be difficult

The European Commission is exploring whether to extend the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation to cover decentralized finance (DeFi) lending and borrowing, including lending vaults. These vaults, which channel billions into on-chain credit markets, present significant regulatory challenges because their decentralized structure doesn't map neatly onto existing financial frameworks. Their legal status is currently based on non-binding interpretations that they fall outside MiCA and EU fund rules. The article uses Morpho's decentralized lending protocol as an example, illustrating how responsibilities are divided among various participants (owner, curator, allocator, sentinel), making it difficult to identify a single "provider" to regulate. Experts warn that broadly categorizing "DeFi lending" could inadvertently capture vastly different structures. They argue that any regulatory approach should focus on the specific structure and control mechanisms of a vault, rather than using decentralization as a simple dividing line, and that DeFi lending may require a dedicated, carefully crafted framework distinct from traditional finance. The Commission's consultation closes on September 30, 2026. The core challenge for regulators is not just whether to regulate DeFi lending, but how to design rules that distinguish between different forms of on-chain lending and the entities that control them.

cointelegraph2h ago

MiCA is coming for DeFi vaults, but regulation will be difficult

cointelegraph2h ago

Trading

Spot

Hot Articles

What is $BITCOIN

DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN): A Comprehensive Analysis Introduction to DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a blockchain-based project operating on the Solana network, which aims to combine the characteristics of traditional precious metals with the innovation of decentralized technologies. While it shares a name with Bitcoin, often referred to as “digital gold” due to its perception as a store of value, DIGITAL GOLD is a separate token designed to create a unique ecosystem within the Web3 landscape. Its goal is to position itself as a viable alternative digital asset, although specifics regarding its applications and functionalities are still developing. What is DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a cryptocurrency token explicitly designed for use on the Solana blockchain. In contrast to Bitcoin, which provides a widely recognized value storage role, this token appears to focus on broader applications and characteristics. Notable aspects include: Blockchain Infrastructure: The token is built on the Solana blockchain, known for its capacity to handle high-speed and low-cost transactions. Supply Dynamics: DIGITAL GOLD has a maximum supply capped at 100 quadrillion tokens (100P $BITCOIN), although details regarding its circulating supply are currently undisclosed. Utility: While precise functionalities are not explicitly outlined, there are indications that the token could be utilized for various applications, potentially involving decentralized applications (dApps) or asset tokenization strategies. Who is the Creator of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? At present, the identity of the creators and development team behind DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) remains unknown. This situation is typical among many innovative projects within the blockchain space, particularly those aligning with decentralized finance and meme coin phenomena. While such anonymity may foster a community-driven culture, it intensifies concerns about governance and accountability. Who are the Investors of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? The available information indicates that DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) does not have any known institutional backers or prominent venture capital investments. The project seems to operate on a peer-to-peer model focused on community support and adoption rather than traditional funding routes. Its activity and liquidity are primarily situated on decentralized exchanges (DEXs), such as PumpSwap, rather than established centralized trading platforms, further highlighting its grassroots approach. How DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) Works The operational mechanics of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) can be elaborated on based on its blockchain design and network attributes: Consensus Mechanism: By leveraging Solana’s unique proof-of-history (PoH) combined with a proof-of-stake (PoS) model, the project ensures efficient transaction validation contributing to the network's high performance. Tokenomics: While specific deflationary mechanisms have not been extensively detailed, the vast maximum token supply implies that it may cater to microtransactions or niche use cases that are still to be defined. Interoperability: There exists the potential for integration with Solana’s broader ecosystem, including various decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms. However, the details regarding specific integrations remain unspecified. Timeline of Key Events Here is a timeline that highlights significant milestones concerning DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN): 2023: The initial deployment of the token occurs on the Solana blockchain, marked by its contract address. 2024: DIGITAL GOLD gains visibility as it becomes available for trading on decentralized exchanges like PumpSwap, allowing users to trade it against SOL. 2025: The project witnesses sporadic trading activity and potential interest in community-led engagements, although no noteworthy partnerships or technical advancements have been documented as of yet. Critical Analysis Strengths Scalability: The underlying Solana infrastructure supports high transaction volumes, which could enhance the utility of $BITCOIN in various transaction scenarios. Accessibility: The potential low trading price per token could attract retail investors, facilitating wider participation due to fractional ownership opportunities. Risks Lack of Transparency: The absence of publicly known backers, developers, or an audit process may yield skepticism regarding the project's sustainability and trustworthiness. Market Volatility: The trading activity is heavily reliant on speculative behavior, which can result in significant price volatility and uncertainty for investors. Conclusion DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) emerges as an intriguing yet ambiguous project within the rapidly evolving Solana ecosystem. While it attempts to leverage the “digital gold” narrative, its departure from Bitcoin's established role as a store of value underscores the need for a clearer differentiation of its intended utility and governance structure. Future acceptance and adoption will likely depend on addressing the current opacity and defining its operational and economic strategies more explicitly. Note: This report encompasses synthesised information available as of October 2023, and developments may have transpired beyond the research period.

2.0k Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

What is $BITCOIN

Discussions

Welcome to the HTX Community. Here, you can stay informed about the latest platform developments and gain access to professional market insights. Users' opinions on the price of BTC (BTC) are presented below.

活动图片

Top Questions