钻石手终章：我看好的四大山寨币投资机会

深潮Published on 2025-07-22Last updated on 2025-07-23

明后年来看这一版💎👋能不能跑赢 BTC😎。

撰文：Lao Bai

两年没写钻石手系列，今儿来个第三版，也大概率是最后一版钻石手系列文了。因为币圈这个周期除了奖励 BTC 钻石手，其他钻的基本都被无情浇给。之前的钻石手系列也偏向找 Alpha，这一期偏 Beta，毕竟之前有些 Alpha 钻完被割的体无完肤，实在是往事不堪回首。

最大的 Beta 当然还是一超三强 BTC + ETH, SOL, BNB。山寨的 Beta 么， 我个人当前看好下面这四个，打算继续钻一钻。

1. AAVE - AAVE 算是为数不多上面一超三强之外你能长持且睡得着觉的标的，TVL 已经破前高到了 300 多亿，更难能可贵的是，这么多年了一次重大的安全事故都没有。你看 JP Morgan 之类的传统金融机构试水区块链，也都是优先选 AAVE 上测试点啥。

这波 RWA+ 稳定币，区块链与传统金融结合，提升效率多快好省，注定是区块链未来发展的第一大方向。能够蹭上车的标的，除了公链之外，Uniswap/Curve 的确定性反而没那么高，AAVE 则是确定一定以及肯定会在车上的龙头标的。未来几个月 V4 的上线也颇为期待，所以值得一钻。

2. Pendle - TVL 已经 60 亿，接近前高，稳得一米，即将迎来第三浪

Pendle 第一浪是背靠 Sushiswap 和一些 Defi 协议，把流动性挖矿等收益拆分出来，但没什么声浪与热度，因为那些收益着实很虚。

第二浪是上一波基于 Lido 和 Eigenlayer 的 LST/LRT，一飞冲天。毕竟收益实落了许多。

未来第三浪则是 RWA 和稳定币的一浪，传统金融里面收益分级和风险拆分是个极其重要的赛道，市场巨大（10 万亿 + 级别）。随着链上越来越多的 RWA 与稳定币资产，这个赛道一定是会跟着水涨船高的，且跟 AAVE 好歹还面临 Compound，Morpho 等竞争不同，Pendle 在这个赛道基本就是一家独大，拿着望远镜都看不到对手那种。

唯一不爽的是币价也太稳了，涨跌幅度都不大，先钻上几个月看看吧。

3. Hyperliquid - 本周期发币项目最强选手，没有之一

对其他链上 Perp 碾压式的用户体验 + 碾压式的交易深度，导致了碾压式的交易量领先与碾压式的市值领先。

而且 Hyperliquid 的定位就不是一个 Perp，它是链上的 Liquidity Layer，最近 Phantom 接入就是一个最好的证明，未来还会有更多的前端去接 Hyperliquid 这个流动性后端。

除了现在每天大量的买买买回购，后面还有 HyperEVM 的生态打造，HIP-3 的 RWA Perp 等各种后手在蓄势。

但 Hyper 是我唯一一个还没建仓的钻石手，原因是空投 4-10 都卖飞了，看着现在近 500 亿的市值有些怨念 + 下不去手，未来希望能找到好的点位机会，钻是一定要钻的，大不了等下个熊了再钻……

4. Bittensor - 我之前一直都偏 Bittensor 黑，直到最近才想明白开始转粉，打算钻它个 6-12 个月。

黑的原因是自然是他的 PMF，23 年就我开始质疑，现在也依旧怀疑，总觉得 Bittensor 跟 Filecoin 很像。

Filecoin 没真实商业需求就拿垃圾数据填充, Bittensor 没真实商业需求就自己创造需求然后矿工卷一个并没有什么卵用的推理结果，去年还有很多矿工与 Validator 勾结拿排放的 Rumor 等各种 Drama……

所以怎么看怎么觉得这玩意像 Filecoin。

那最近为啥想明白了呢？

首先 Crypto 发展到这个周期证伪了一堆赛道，证实了两个赛道。

证实的赛道一个是金融（Defi，RWA，稳定币都算），一个是 Gamble（meme，PolyMarket，以及各种链上 Casino 的形式都算）。

为数不多还在自证的，Crypto+AI 肯定是个头最大的，且这个赛道中短期内就算没法证实，也很难彻底证伪。

而所有目前这些 AI+Crypto 的项目，最难证伪的就是 Bittensor。

原因有这么几点：

  1. 它市值第一名，在这个赛道 Mindshare 也是第一名，想到 Crypto+AI 你第一个想到的肯定是它

  2. 当前阶段能完全说清楚 Bittensor 到底是干什么的人很少，不信你自己试试脑补下自己跟一个朋友花 10 分钟介绍 Bittensor，你能讲清楚么？

  3. 现在的子网已经铺到快 100 个了，明年两三百个应该问题不大，且有些子网真的有 PMF+ 有收入了 - （虽说客户大多也是 Web3 的项目，虽说那点收入相对于 Bittensor 的市值来说可以忽略不计）……

  4. 明年 1，2 月份 Bittensor 就要减半了，这东西跟 BTC 一样 2100 万硬顶，4 年左右一次减半，明年的减半肯定会是个大事件。

在排放机制和 Mindshare 上，这东西可以看做 AIxCrypto 赛道的 BTC。而子网设计，共识与证明机制上又像是 ETH - 搞不好哪个明星子网跑出来什么真有 PMF 的东西，就像 ETH 上跑出来 Uniswap 和 AAVE 一样。毕竟它的子网覆盖范围从去中心化训练，到数据，到算力，到推理，文字图像视频药物研究 blah blah blah 应有尽有，你能想到所有的 AI+Crypto 的细分领域基本都有一个或者几个子网在折腾事情。所以相对于其他项目，Bittensor 更像 ETH 这种底层平台的即视感，尤其是今年子网可以自己发币之后。

但 Bittensor 最大问题同样是市值很高，每天光是排放就有百万 U 以上，当前这个阶段消化起来还是挺费劲的，觉得贵的话明年前半前后可以重点关注下，当前可钻可不钻。

OK，钻石手系列就算彻底收官了，明后年回来看这最后一版的钻石手能不能跑赢 BTC，所以记录下今天的价格 - BTC-118275， AAVE - 312.7， Pendle - 4.43，Hyper - 44， TAO- 433。

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431 Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

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