Дефицит Ethereum растет: 29% ETH заблокировано в стейкинге

cryptonews.ruPublished on 2025-07-15Last updated on 2025-07-15

Ethereum (ETH) может столкнуться с шоком предложения. Количество коротких позиций с кредитным плечом достигло рекордных значений, стейкинг бьет рекорды, а ликвидность на биржах снижается

Разбираемся, приведет ли это к росту Ethereum (ETH) или нас ждет повторение «Черного четверга».

Дефицит предложения Ethereum усиливается

График, опубликованный ZeroHedge на X, показывает дефицит предложения Ethereum. Количество коротких позиций с кредитным плечом достигло рекордных -13 291 в OTC и наличных контрактах. Это самое резкое падение с начала 2025 года, что говорит об активной деятельности хедж-фондов.

Рекордные короткие позиции с кредитным плечом на Ether. Источник: ZeroHedge

Криптоэксперт Fejau на X отмечает, что это не связано с медвежьими настроениями, а является стратегией торговли на разнице. Хедж-фонды используют разницу в ценах между фьючерсами на ETH на CME и спотовыми рынками, получая устойчивую прибыль в условиях контанго.

«Причина большого количества коротких позиций на ETH — это торговля на разнице. Фонды могут получить годовую доходность в 9,5%, продавая фьючерсы на CME и покупая ETH на споте с доходностью от стейкинга в 3,5% (вот почему это в основном касается ETH, а не BTC) для дельта-нейтральной доходности в 13%», — объяснил Fejau на X.

Дефицит ETH усиливается, так как стейкинг достиг рекордного уровня. По данным Dune Analytics, более 29,03% от общего предложения заблокировано. Это оставляет в обращении около 121 млн ETH.

Стейкинг Ethereum. Источник: Dune

Ончейн-данные показывают, что ETH активно выводят с бирж. Это совпадает с ростом цены до $3 000. Частично это связано с накоплением крупных игроков, таких как SharpLink. Снижение ликвидности создает давление на рост цен, когда спрос превышает предложение. В прошлую пятницу с криптобирж вывели 140 120 ETH на сумму около $393 млн.

«Более 140 000 ETH, стоимостью около $393 млн, покинули биржи. Это стало крупнейшим однодневным выводом более чем за месяц», — пишет Sentora.

Чего ждать от цены ETH

MerlijnTrader на X прогнозирует, что ETH достигнет $10 000 в этом цикле благодаря возможному короткому сжатию и активности стейкинга. Ожидается, что одобрение ETF-стейкинга произойдет к концу года. Это усиливает ожидания по поводу дефицита ETH.

Тем не менее, риски остаются значительными. Торговля на разнице, хотя и прибыльна, уязвима к внезапной волатильности, как это было в 2020 году в «Черный четверг». Если дефицит предложения Ethereum не приведет к росту цен, фонды могут понести убытки, а доверие рынка пошатнется.

На момент написания ETH снова поднялся выше $3 000. Однако текущая цена все еще на 38% ниже исторического максимума, достигнутого в ноябре 2021 года.

Ценовая динамика ETH. Источник: BeInCrypto

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