暴涨后的沉思：我们正处于宏观周期的哪个阶段？

Odaily星球日报Published on 2025-07-11Last updated on 2025-07-11

Abstract

附“放水红绿灯速查表”和四大观测信号。

本文来自：hoeem（@crypthoem）

编译｜Odaily星球日报（@OdailyChina）；译者｜Azuma（@azuma_eth）

编者按：随着 BTC 再创历史新高，ETH 强势突破 3000 美元关口，市场大有加速上扬的态势。纵览市场关于上涨原因的剖析，始终绕不过降息这一话题。今日早间，两位美联储高官再次就降息预期给出了积极的信号。

  • 旧金山联储主席戴利昨晚表示：“我认为可能会出现两次降息，但每个人的预期都存在不确定性，考虑在秋季实施降息。”

  • 美联储理事、下一任主席潜在候选人沃勒则表示，即便 6 月就业数据表现强劲，美联储仍应考虑在 7 月议息会议上降息 —— “我已阐明观点。现行政策利率水平过高，我们可以在 7 月讨论下调基准利率……当通胀下行时，我们无需维持如此紧缩的政策立场，这才是央行应有的决策逻辑。”

然而，降息对加密货币市场究竟意味着什么？我们当前正处于流动性周期的哪个阶段？哪些信号可供观测未来的变化？许多市场参与者对这些最基础却又最重要的问题却没有清晰的认知。在下文中，长期关注宏观环境的加密货币交易员 hoeem 就这些问题给出了自己的答案。

以下为 hoeem 原文内容，由 Odaily 星球日报编译。

暴涨后的沉思：我们正处于宏观周期的哪个阶段？

我们处于流动性周期的哪个阶段？

世代财富往往在从紧缩转向宽松的阶段中创造。准确把握流动性周期的位置对投资布局至关重要 —— 那么当前我们究竟处于什么阶段？让我来告诉你答案。

即使你讨厌宏观分析，你也应该关注流动性周期的变化，因为央行流动性是全球经济引擎的润滑油。加得太多，市场会过热；抽得太猛，活塞就会卡死，而你的美好生活也会紧接着离你而去。如果能精准跟踪流动性的流向，你就能提前布局泡沫与崩盘。

2021-2025 ，流动性周期的四个阶段

第一阶段：大放水

  • 时间段： 2020 - 2021 ；

  • 消防栓全开：零利率 + 史无前例的量化宽松（QE） + 16 万亿美元的财政刺激；

  • 全球货币供应量（M2）增速创二战后新高。

第二阶段：大抽水

  • 时间段： 2021 - 2022 ；

  • 500 个基点的暴力加息 + 量化紧缩（QT）+ 危机应对政策到期；

  • 2022 年债券市场创下历史最差表现（跌幅约 17% ）。

第三阶段：平缓期

  • 时间段： 2022 - 2024 ；

  • 政策维持紧缩，但不再加码；

  • 央行们在放任既有政策发挥作用，以压制通胀。

第四阶段：初步转向

  • 时间段： 2024 - 2025 ；

  • 全球开启降息周期，限制逐步放宽，尽管利率仍然相对较高，但已开始全球范围内下降。

2025 年，我们所处的位置

站在 2025 年的年中，我们的一只脚还留在平缓期，但另一只脚已开始试探性地转向。当前阶段仍呈现“高利率 + 量化紧缩持续”的组合，但政策天平已明显倾向宽松，除非新的冲击将我们拖回"大放水"模式。

更多内容见下面的“红绿灯速查表” —— 我借助 ChatGPT 把这些内容整理成了一个更直观的表格，能帮你更清楚地看到 2017、 2021 和 2025 年的流动性对比。

  • Odaily 注：在下图中，“🔴” 表示未激活，“🟠”表示轻度激活，“🟢”表示强烈激活。此外需要注意的是，最后 1 项杠杆将控制其他 11 项杠杆。

暴涨后的沉思：我们正处于宏观周期的哪个阶段？

杠杆机制逐项解析

降息

  • 2017 年：美联储主导加息，全球宽松有限；

  • 2021 年：紧急降息潮席卷全球，利率逼近零下限；

  • 2025 年：为维护抗通胀信誉维持高利率，美欧拟定 2025 年底启动温和降息。

量化宽松/紧缩（QE/QT）

  • 2017 年：美联储缩表，欧日央行持续购债；

  • 2020-2021 年：全球 QE 规模破历史纪录；

  • 2025 年：政策立场逆转 —— 美联储坚持 QT，日央行无限量购债，中国定向释放流动性。

流动性周期的本质在于，QE 是向血管输血，QT 则是缓慢抽血，因此必须认清 QT/QE 的切换时点及流动性周期定位。

2025 年中的政策状态

  • 降息进程：政策利率仍居高位，若鲍威尔主张落地， 2025 年第四季度或启动首次降息。

  • QE/QT 动态：QT 持续运行，暂无新 QE 计划，但已出现刺激政策早期信号。

四大观测信号

信号一：通胀= 2% ，且政策宣布风险平衡

  • 关注点：美联储/欧央行声明转向中性措辞；

  • 意义：扫清降息前的最后修辞障碍。

信号二：QT 暂停（到期债券 100% 再投资）

  • 关注点：FOMC/欧央行宣布全额再投资；

  • 意义：停止抽水，转为中性储备。

信号三：FRA-OIS 利差大于 25 个基点，或回购利率飙升

  • 关注点：三月期 FRA-OIS 或 GC 回购交易跳升至 20 多个基点；

  • 意义：预示美元融资压力，常迫使流动性干预。

信号四：中国央行全面降准 25 个基点

  • 关注点：存款准备金率降至低于 6.35% ；

  • 意义：释放 4000 亿基础货币，常是新兴市场宽松的第一张骨牌。

通俗化概述

简而言之，所有这些复杂的数据归结起来就是，我们尚未进入新一轮的“大放水”阶段。

所以，市场的风险偏好将继续摇摆，除非多个杠杆机制变成绿色，否则不会有真正的狂热。

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