BTC波动率周回顾（六月30日-七月7日）

Odaily星球日报Published on 2025-07-08Last updated on 2025-07-08

Abstract

我们预计市场在未来几周将会突破历史最高点，如果我们成功突破了113000美元，可能会迅速涨到120000美元，最终到达125-135000美元。

BTC波动率周回顾（六月30日-七月7日）

关键指标:(六月 30 日 下午四点 -> 7 月 7 日 下午四点 香港时间)

  • BTC 对 USD 上涨 1.1% （107.6 千美元 -> 108.8 千美元)，ETH 对 USD 上涨 4% （2, 480 美元 -> 2, 580 美元）

BTC波动率周回顾（六月30日-七月7日）

  • 币价持续在历史最高点以下徘徊，每次试图突破时都会立马遇到强劲的阻力。我们预计市场在未来几周将会突破历史最高点，但仍存在一定风险会重新回到 100 千美元以下。如果我们未能突破可能会看到币价持续向下纠正到 93-94 千美元，但依然不影响我们长期看多的观点。如果我们成功突破了 113 千美元，可能会迅速涨到 120 千美元，最后到 125-135 千美元。

市场主题

  • 在美国假期和夏季假期的全面展开下，我们又度过了平静的一周。美国非农数据再次出人意料的强劲，打消了 7 月份提前降息的希望，也磨灭了夏季市场风险偏好加大的可能性。市场对 7 月 9 日关税截止期限的担忧导致风险资产在周末前的低流动性环境中短暂回撤，但总体上感觉市场的总体仓位和杠杆并不重。

  • 加密货币市场在上周初风险情绪回归。比特币短暂地触碰到了 110 千美元以上，但我们最后还是在历史最高点前止步不前。由于美国经济数据打破了提前降息的预期，比特币与美股市场一同跌落，对关税政策的担忧也导致币价回吐到 108 千美元。局部看比特币和美股/其他风险资产的相关性依然很高，但感觉上市场还在等待真正的催化剂推动币价上涨到历史新高 - 美国国会预先宣布 7 月 14 日开始为“加密货币”周，会在当周推动加密货币相关的法案（主要涉及稳定币）。或许这会是触发市场获得足够动量突破最高点的契机。

BTC ATM 隐含波动率

BTC波动率周回顾（六月30日-七月7日）

  • 上周实际波动率相当低，又是低于 30 点的一周（包括周末两天，这两天的实际波动率几乎为 0）。币价仍然舒适地躺在 105-115 千美元的区间内，近期的催化剂也几乎无处可寻。然而，如此低的隐含波动率现在开始吸引买家购买低价期权（买入下方以保护多头现货头村，或者买入上方的看涨价差来扩大看涨的杠杆为最终的突破准备仓位）- 这些交易目前很好地支撑住了隐含波动率的底部。

  • 目前的期限结构不算陡峭（相较于历史水平），市场完全收割了剩余的期限溢价。考虑到比特币的特性，很容易在币价突破范围时重回高波动率区间，拥有长期限上的多头 Vega 并卖出短期期限作为资助（短期曲线陡峭，在期限上快速下跌）看上去是一个非常有吸引力的仓位。

BTC 偏度/峰度

BTC波动率周回顾（六月30日-七月7日）

  • 偏度在周末以前朝下方剧烈移动，因为市场担心特朗普的关税消息带来额外的负面影响，同时对 110 千美元往上突破的失败导致了一波向下插针。由于市场上存在对冲下方风险的需求同时波动平基本很低，导致偏度向下倾斜。在周末进一步下跌没有发生的情况下，偏度快速恢复。同时期限远方市场的需求量只在币价上方，所以远期的偏度更加稳定。

  • 上周峰度有所上涨，因为局部的隐含波动率持续走低，同时市场开始买入币价范围外的点位以捕捉币价突破的机会。然而，在期限远端峰度仍然处于较低的水平，还存在机会买入峰度为币价突破以及波动率模式回到高位做准备。

祝大家本周好运！

BTC波动率周回顾（六月30日-七月7日）

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