Matrixport投研：BTC价格或进入下一轮上升区间

Odaily星球日报Published on 2025-07-04Last updated on 2025-07-04

Abstract

BTC迈入历史表现强劲月份，在外部支撑良好的情况下价格有望进一步上升。

BTC 夏季盘整阶段或进入尾声，BTC 价格上探关键突破阻力位，或进入新一轮上升区间。BTC 实际波动率已降至近几年低点，一周隐含波动率也仅维持在 30% 上下。波动率的下行不仅反映市场结构日趋成熟，也为风险偏好边缘化的机构投资者打开了参与空间。

BTC 现货 ETF 资金流入表现强劲，市值上涨需要更多的资金支持

BTC ETF 资金流入出乎意料地保持韧性。自 4 月以来，已有约 140 亿美元流入 BTC 现货 ETF，较现货价格所对应的流入规模高出约 40 亿美元。这部分“真实需求”具备高度黏性，几乎没有明显的短线投机迹象，BTC 正越来越多地被视为一种长期配置型资产，而非短期交易工具。

在 BTC 资金流入的同时，整体加密市场的资本效率却在下降。2025 年迄今的资金流入规模预计将低于 2024 年 3, 770 亿美元的峰值，按目前趋势年化后约为 2, 910 亿美元。当前推高 BTC 市值进所需的资本密度远高于以往。以每投入 1 美元可带来 2.0 至 2.6 倍市值增长计算，维持价格上行正变得愈发依赖资金支撑。所以，尽管 BTC 币在近期持续获得强劲的 ETF 资金流入，叠加公司金库资金的持续加仓，但价格依旧在区间震荡盘整。

华尔街的强势参与，或为 BTC 价格上涨提供充足动能

数据显示，目前有超 1, 000 亿美元的加密相关 IPO 处于筹备阶段。Circle 已率先上市，且表现远超市场预期。相比加密原生资产，加密概念股为机构投资者提供了兼具“杠杆”的更熟悉的投资配置路径，“技术创新”的属性让叙事层面更加宏大。

进入历史表现强势月份，BTC 价格有机会冲击 $ 120, 000 

7 月通常是 BTC 表现相对强势的月份，历史数据显示，过去十年中有七次上涨，平均涨幅达 9.1% 。相比之下， 8 月与 9 月的市场表现则因市场活跃度回落与宏观不确定性上升而整体偏弱。如果该季节属性延续，BTC 价格或在未来几周迎来一波冲高，随后重新进入季节盘整。

当前美联储态度转向温和，且美股财报整体向好，结合“ 7 · 4 ”假期过后的市场情绪修复，三者共同为 BTC 价格提供了阶段性的外部支撑。但若整体净流入未能明显回升，尤其缺乏来自散户或新增资金的驱动，不排除该反弹会在 $ 116, 000 受阻，理想状态下 BTC 价格或可达 $ 120, 000 。

市场贪婪恐惧指数侧面验证了上述设想，目前，“贪婪/恐惧指数”平滑移动均线已出现筑底迹象，并有望向“贪婪区”移动。因此，若 BTC 延续其 7 月一贯的季节性强势，原本相对保守的“夏季调整”或将面临修正。

免责声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成投资建议。数字资产交易可能具有极大的风险和不稳定性。投资决策应在仔细考虑个人情况并咨询金融专业人士后做出。Matrixport 不对基于本内容所提供信息的任何投资决策负责。

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