BTC波动率回顾(6月23日-6月30日)

Odaily星球日报Published on 2025-07-02Last updated on 2025-07-02

Abstract

在过去的几周,币价一直在狭窄的旗形通道中交易,但市场即将发生变盘。

BTC波动率回顾(6月23日-6月30日)

关键指标:(六月 23 日 下午四点 香港时间 -> 六月 30 日 下午四点 香港时间)

  • BTC 对 USD 上涨 5.1% ( 102 千美元->107.6 千美元), ETH 对 USD 上涨 6.9% ( 2, 320 美元-> 2, 480 美元)

BTC波动率回顾(6月23日-6月30日)

  • 在过去的几周,币价一直在狭窄的旗形通道中交易(除了因为以色列-伊朗时间导致短时突破了 100 千美元)。目前感觉市场已经准备好进行一波上,只是需要找到足够的动能突破 108.5 千美元的强阻力以及之后的 112.5 千美元。但是如果我们未能成功突破,我们可能会慢慢回到旗形通道的底部,但在 101 千美元会遇到趋势支撑位,并在 98 千美元遇到更强力的支撑。如果这些点位被进一步突破,我们可能会看到币价大幅下挫到 90 千美元。

  • 我们依然保持乐观并相信会有一波到 125-130 千美元的涨幅完成整个长期的走势。

市场主题

  • 在紧张的地缘政治局势逐渐淡化后,我们经过了非常平静但风险情绪整体向上的一周。市场的关注点转向美国发展。特朗普宣布即将公布新任美联储主席并向市场保证会“降低利率”,市场随后迅速对降息进行定价(七月降息概率为 20% ,年底前预计有 2-3 次降息)。美股市场并未遇到太大阻力,标普 500 指数和纳斯达克指数创下历史新高。市场显然正在为夏季假期配置低波动/风险的投资,并看起来对即将到来的贸易关税截止日期并不感到担忧。

  • 相较于整体上涨的风险情绪,加密货币市场的表现非常平静。比特币最近和纳斯达克的强相关性出现了滞后,因为市场上堆积了太多的多头伽马并在 108.5-109 千美元的局部阻力位前放了一堆卖单。小币也未能加入这波风险上涨,Solana 在预计本周三 ETF 发行前停滞不前。

BTC波动率回顾(6月23日-6月30日)

BTC ATM 隐含波动率

BTC波动率回顾(6月23日-6月30日)

  • 上周实际波动率迅速减弱。主要是因为现货价格回到了 110-112 千美元中间的舒适区,比特币此前已经在该区间停留了 2 个多月;同时市场目前显然拿了很多多头 Gamma,这也为币价被限制在区间内做出了贡献。隐含波动率因此被大幅压低,我们今年首次看到日波动率被定价在了 30 以下,哪怕是 3 月的隐含波动率(九月到期)也近乎 40 点以下。

  • 期限结构上在一个月到期日内相当陡峭,接下来几天的日波动率被定在了 27-28 点,但是在七月底前被被定在了 40 点。期限结构更远端显著变平,市场完全失去了对实际波动率转变到更高区间的考量,因此创造了非常有吸引力的期限交易机会。

BTC 偏度/峰度

BTC波动率回顾(6月23日-6月30日)

  • 上周偏度价格基本保持横盘,因为现货市场上没有出现任何方向的动量导致对偏度的交易略显平淡。短期到期日依然偏向下方考虑到下跌时的实际波动率更加凶猛,更远期偏向上方因为市场缺乏对下行 Vega 的兴趣。

  • 峰度一开始也是横盘,但最终出现下跌。因为市场上累计的多头越来越多,很多卖家持续卖出一侧来资助他们的多头。但考虑到实际波动率转向更高区域的倾向以及波动率的高波动,我们认为在这种环境下应该抓住下跌时买入峰度(尤其考虑到实际波动率在局部一直表现不佳)。

祝大家本周好运!

BTC波动率回顾(6月23日-6月30日)

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What is $BITCOIN

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While such anonymity may foster a community-driven culture, it intensifies concerns about governance and accountability. Who are the Investors of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? The available information indicates that DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) does not have any known institutional backers or prominent venture capital investments. The project seems to operate on a peer-to-peer model focused on community support and adoption rather than traditional funding routes. Its activity and liquidity are primarily situated on decentralized exchanges (DEXs), such as PumpSwap, rather than established centralized trading platforms, further highlighting its grassroots approach. How DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) Works The operational mechanics of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) can be elaborated on based on its blockchain design and network attributes: Consensus Mechanism: By leveraging Solana’s unique proof-of-history (PoH) combined with a proof-of-stake (PoS) model, the project ensures efficient transaction validation contributing to the network's high performance. Tokenomics: While specific deflationary mechanisms have not been extensively detailed, the vast maximum token supply implies that it may cater to microtransactions or niche use cases that are still to be defined. Interoperability: There exists the potential for integration with Solana’s broader ecosystem, including various decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms. However, the details regarding specific integrations remain unspecified. 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Note: This report encompasses synthesised information available as of October 2023, and developments may have transpired beyond the research period.

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