【DeFi 大爆发】以太坊阵营全面反攻,ETH 要起飞了?

Foresight NewsPublished on 2025-06-11Last updated on 2025-06-11

Abstract

难道说,又要 3000 追车以太坊?

撰文:Bright,Foresight News

CZ 在社交媒体上公开表示:「6 月 9 日将被铭记为 DeFi 日。」继废除「Defi 经纪人规则」后,美国的加密监管再次砸开了一层镣铐。随即,老牌 DeFi 代币如 AAVE、UNI 均开启了轰轰烈烈的上涨模式。

美国时间 6 月 9 日,美 SEC 新任主席 Paul Atkins 的「DeFi 与美国精神」讲话标志着美国加密监管逻辑的根本性转变,结合以太坊基金会(EF)的战略调整与市场资金共振,ETH 链上 DeFi 正迎来前所未有的结构性机遇。监管范式革新、机构资金涌入、技术突破这三大核心驱动力 —— 共同构建了 DeFi Summer 2.0 爆发的底层逻辑。

一、监管松绑:Defi Summer 2.0 的政策催化剂

Atkins 在 6 月 9 日的讲话中一共释放了三大监管信号,彻底扭转了 Gensler 时代的「执法优先」基调。

第一,美 SEC 终于认可了代码中立原则。在讲话中,Atkins 以「自动驾驶汽车开发者不应对第三方滥用负责」的比喻,明确将责任主体从工具开发者转移到使用者,为 DeFi 协议的「无需许可创新」扫清了法律障碍。这一论断直接回应了上任民主党政府期间出现的 Tornado Cash 开发者案件,解除了开发者的合规枷锁。讲话后 24 小时内,AAVE、UNI 等 DeFi 蓝筹代币涨幅均超 13%,隐私赛道代币如 AZTEC 上涨 9%,市场用真金白银印证了监管松绑的价值重估效应。

第二,是产权回归与 Staking 合法化。Atkins 强调「私有财产自主管理权」是美国核心价值,明确支持用户通过个人钱包直接参与链上金融活动。这一表态彻底终结了 Gensler 时代对 Lido、Rocket Pool 等流动性质押协议(LSD)的证券化指控。LSD 赛道龙头 LDO 当日涨幅达 11%,EigenLayer 等再质押项目也同步上涨,显示机构资金对 Staking 生态的信心重构。

第三,则是创新沙盒机制落地。如同迪拜 DFSA,SEC 宣布设立了「创新豁免」框架,允许注册与非注册主体在合规条件下快速推出链上产品。这一机制为 RWA(真实世界资产上链)领域提供了官方许可的试验场,超万亿美元级链下资产上链进程将加速。

二、内核发力:以太坊基金会力推「Defipunk」

以太坊基金会 2030 计划中明确指出,将推动建立「Defipunk」的评估机制和促进 Defi 项目的相关转型。

在计划中,以太坊基金会将 DeFi 视为实现以太坊「无需许可、抗审查」愿景的核心载体,明确通过财库配置、技术支持和标准制定,推动 DeFi 成为「数字时代的开放金融基础设施」。其中,其关键目标为:到 2026 年,链上 DeFi 配置占财库(非 ETH 核心持仓)的 30% 以上,优先支持隐私、可组合性强的协议。

以太坊基金会(EF)基于密码朋克原则推动建立「Defipunk」评估框架,聚焦安全性、开源性、金融主权、技术方案优先及隐私保护等核心特征,旨在通过研究、倡导与资金配置培育抗审查的 DeFi 生态以应对目前 DeFi 生态隐私相关 Gas 费用高、用户体验摩擦等挑战,并解决现行 Defi 普遍依赖中心化后门、多重签名等机制等系统性漏洞。

目前,ETH 链上的 TVL 相较于 2、3 月的低谷已经回暖至 660 亿美元,并呈现良好的扩张势头,有望在规模上超过 24 年 12 月的顶峰。

而近期涨势良好的 AAVE 的 TVL 更是「高了又高」,TVL 已超 260 亿美元,质押的 ETH 已超过 930 万枚。

一天内暴涨 30% 的 UNI 在近期数据表现同样不俗。TVL 回升至了 51.52 亿美元,有望超过 24 年高点。

三、机构看涨:ETH 仍是加密合规语境下的首选

6 月 11 日,据 farside 监测,昨日 FETH 净流入 2630 万美元,灰度 ETH 净流入 970 万美元,ETHW 净流入 840 万美元。同时,以太坊质押量创历史新高,达到了 3480 万 ETH,约占流通供应量的 28.15%。

市场预计,美 SEC 将很快批准支持质押的以太坊 ETF,REX Shares 已提交相关申请。而 BlackRock 的 iShares Ethereum Trust 已经连续 23 个交易日无资金流出。

近期,LD Capital 创始人 JackYi 再次发文重申坚定看多以太坊及其生态代币,其表示目前持有 10 万枚 ETH 期权多单,认为以太坊生态被低估原因包括:ETH 代币本身被低估,看好牛市期间 ETH/BTC 汇率对回升;加密政策放开后,有真实收入、用户、产品的项目最先受益传统资本流入;华尔街资金近期正在流入以太坊进行建仓。LD Capital 旗下 Trend Research 更是明牌看多 ETH,现持币 14.2 万枚 ETH,浮盈 4235 万美元。

QCP 研报则认为,以太坊的隐含波动率上升,前端平值期权波动率已攀升至 70% 左右,期权市场偏度(skew)也明显转向看涨方向,上涨了 5 至 6 个百分点。永续合约的高资金费率进一步强化了市场的多头氛围。ETF 的资金流入显示机构兴趣正在回归。这一轮资金轮动或暗示,市场叙事正在从「比特币是数字黄金」转向「以太坊是现实世界资产(RWA)基础设施层」。

展望未来,宏观利好因素确实正在为以太坊积聚动力。从 2020 年野蛮生长、监管真空的 Defi summer 至今,加密行业已经完完全全置身于合规的语境之中。随着 GENIUS 法案在美国参议院推进、Circle 启动 IPO,以及稳定币在监管上逐步取得进展,以太坊在代币化和结算基础设施中的核心地位,可能迎来结构性超预期的上涨空间。对应的,基于 ETH 的 DeFi 也将再次一飞冲天。

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