4% 持有率，3.37 亿用户：比特币主流化还差 30 个 Snapchat 的距离？

Foresight NewsPublished on 2025-06-03Last updated on 2025-06-03

Abstract

BTC 距离真正的主流应用仍相去甚远。

来源：cryptoslate

编译：区块链骑士

「我们已不再处于早期阶段。」这句话在 Crypto 推特圈中广为流传。上周，有 3.5 万人参加了 2025 年 BTC 大会，参会者包括 BTC 爱好者、美国参议员、白宫工作人员、贝莱德分析师，甚至还有曾被监禁的丝绸之路创始人罗斯·乌布利希特。BTC 的现货价格已远超 10 万美元，BTC 支持者们正在庆祝其「走向主流」。

然而，在阵阵掌声和 ETF 推动的价格图表背后，却隐藏着一个更为冷静的事实：BTC 距离真正的主流应用仍相去甚远。

尽管 BTC 价格创下历史新高，且华尔街对其接纳度日益提升，但全球仅有 4% 的人口持有 BTC。从绝对数量来看，大约有 3.37 亿人持有 BTC，这一数字仅为 Snapchat 用户数量的一半。即便将所有另类资产的持有者都计算在内，总人数也仅为 6.59 亿，仍比主流应用的用户数量少数亿。

尽管蕴含着万亿美元的潜力，BTC 在仍处于发展期的生态系统中，依旧是边缘工具。

BTC 仍处在上世纪 90 年代末的互联网阶段

将 BTC 的采用曲线与早期互联网对比：

2025 年的 BTC，就如同电子邮件尚未完全普及之前的互联网。它是一个充满创新的领域，但远未达到无处不在的程度。使用 BTC 钱包和阅读此类文章，就如同拥有一个 AOL 账户，或是从随计算机杂志附赠的光盘上安装最新版本的 Netscape 浏览器。

当 BTC 的普及率达到 4% 时，相当于 2000 年新年前夜的互联网状态。那时，全世界都害怕在午夜钟声敲响时让电脑开着，生怕千年虫病毒摧毁人类文明。

当时，诺基亚 3210 手机充斥着大街小巷和教室，基本图像只能逐行加载，下载一张专辑需要一整天的时间，搜索工作则由一个名为 Jeeves 的在线管家来完成。自那以后，互联网发生了翻天覆地的变化，同理，BTC 若想沿着同样的道路继续发展，其生态集成仍需诸多变革。

拉斯维加斯会议上的部分参会者可能会觉得自己是后来者。但从统计数据来看，他们仍然是早期采用者。

华尔街买入，大众却不使用

Crypto 资产领域的叙事日益依赖机构参与。自 2024 年初 SEC 批准 ETF 以来，已有超过 440 亿美元的资金涌入美国现货 BTC ETF。养老基金、资产管理公司和家族办公室都将 BTC 作为投资组合的对冲工具。

然而，BTC 的日常实用性却并未得到提升。日活跃地址数量已从 2021 年的峰值 110 万下降至近 70 万。尽管传统金融（TradFi）的资金将 BTC legitimized 为资产类别，却未转化为更广泛的交易应用。罗斯·乌布利希特作为 BTC 叛逆根源的象征出席了会议，这凸显了 BTC 作为政治工具与作为机构商品之间的矛盾。

尽管 BTC 的知名度不断提高，但在走向大规模普及的道路上仍面临着诸多障碍：

用户体验不佳：设置钱包或管理助记词仍然不够直观。一旦出错可能导致资产永久丢失。

进入门槛高：对于服务不足的用户来说，小额入金渠道听起来很理想，但交易所费用、监管检查和缓慢的交易时间都削弱了用户体验。

监管不明确：ETF 为 BTC 带来了合法性，但全球范围内针对钱包、Mining 和商业活动的监管政策碎片化，引入了混乱和风险。

文化认知度低：即使在数字化程度较高的社会中，BTC 也更被视为一种投机性资产，而非支付或储蓄工具。

基础工作与现实议程

多项计划正在为 BTC 的更广泛应用奠定基础：

「BTC 不再小众。」WisdomTree 分析师 Dovile Silenskyte 在今年 1 月表示。这或许在资本市场领域是事实，但在人们如何使用货币方面，这一说法尚未得到体现。如今，一枚 BTC 的价格已超过 10 万美元，远超美国家庭的平均净资产（不包括房屋净值）。随着 BTC 变得越来越具有收藏价值，其可用性可能下降，除非 Layer2 解决方案和更广泛的接入能逆转这一趋势。

若想将炒作转化为实际的金融包容性，BTC 支持者应围绕以下几点进行重新定位：

优先落地场景：突出阿根廷自由职业者收入或东非闪电网络汇款等真实案例，而不仅仅是 ETF 资金流入或名人背书。

采用有意义的指标：普及程度不应以市值来衡量，应跟踪活跃钱包使用量、闪电网络流动性以及商家集成等指标。

为边缘用户设计：最关键的用户群体生活在经济不稳定、银行服务匮乏的地区。BTC 的承诺正是在这些地区得到检验，而非在拉斯维加斯的盛会上。

政策清晰：监管一致性比政治作秀更为重要。欧洲的《Crypto 资产市场法规》（MiCA）或有针对性的 Mining 激励措施等框架可以推动 BTC 的普及。

庆功之后才是真正的开始

BTC 或许已在新闻头条和对冲基金领域取得了突破，但真正的考验尚未开始。正如互联网在 20 世纪 90 年代的承诺直到 21 世纪初才随着手机、宽带和用户友好型应用程序的出现而得以实现一样，BTC 的全球影响力也将取决于炒作之后的创新。

BTC 钱包总数仍在持续增长，但闪电网络使用量、活跃钱包数量和每日链上交易者数量均未能重回历史高点。BTC 价格飙升，但链上使用率却并未同步提升。我们不能在战斗远未结束时就沾沾自喜并宣告胜利。

因此，尽管可以像庆祝 1999 年互联网泡沫那样庆祝 BTC 价格突破 10 万美元大关，但互联网的普及得益于智能手机（尤其是 iPhone）的推动。那么，BTC 领域又出现了哪些类似的创新呢？

拉斯维加斯峰会是一场庆典。但 BTC 在支付、储蓄、汇款和金融主权方面的革命，并不会在电视上播出。它将在默默无闻中悄然展开，一步一个脚印地向前推进。

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