- XRP has repeated a three-phase pattern across three market cycles involving the 21-month EMA.
- Current trends and historical data point to a possible price range between $12 and $46, averaging near $27.
After recording a positive market trend, XRP’s long-term price behavior shows recurring trends when viewed on the monthly time frame. These trends emerge clearly through analysis of XRP’s position in relation to the 21-month Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Historical data across three distinct market cycles reveals consistent phases of decline and recovery tied closely to this technical level, as analysts hint at more uptick from the current price level of $2.34.
According to an analysis prepared by Egrag Crypto, it is notable that in the first major cycle, XRP dropped below the 21 EMA. This move preceded a 5500% price decline. Following that, XRP retraced to the 21 EMA before dropping again by 2500%. This cycle set a historical precedent for extreme volatility following a break below this average.
Source: Egrag Crypto (X)
The second cycle showed a smaller initial drop of 150% after moving under the 21 EMA. XRP then rebounded to meet the EMA again. A second downward move followed, amounting to a 500% drop. This second cycle marked a significant reduction in volatility compared to the first but maintained the same structural pattern.
Currently, cycle three is in play, and XRP has moved below the 21 EMA. A rise of 430% has followed this drop. XRP is currently approaching the 21 EMA. If XRP maintains a position above $2, the descending EMA is projected to meet the price soon. This would complete the retracement phase observed in previous cycles.
Price Projections Based on Past Cycles and Current Market Trends
Tracking the current market action for XRP, CoinMarketCap data indicates that XRP traded at $2.34 with a 1.15% daily increase. Market cap reached $137.76 billion, up 1.15%. 24-hour volume rose 39.40% to $2.06 billion.
Source: CoinMarketCap
XRP’s price declined early, bottomed near $2.28, then recovered steadily throughout the day. The chart showed a clear intraday rebound pushing the price back above $2.34. Volume-to-market cap ratio reached 1.49%, indicating increased trading activity during the price rebound.
From the current market observations, if the first cycle’s magnitude repeats, XRP could reach $46. Following the second cycle’s scale, XRP could hit $12. The average between both outcomes, 1500% growth, would imply a price of approximately $30. Based on this analysis, XRP’s estimated peak could reach $27 in the current cycle.
