比特币价格突破11万美金创下历史新高,数据显示比特币牛市尚未结束

marsbitPublished on 2025-05-21Last updated on 2025-05-22

【数据革命:新高背后的结构性突变】

历史

2025年5月21日,比特币在币安交易所突破110,000美元历史峰值,Coinbase平台更触及110,852美元,总市值飙升至2.165万亿美元,超越亚马逊位列全球资产第五。这场数字黄金的史诗级上涨并非偶然:

  • ​​机构化浪潮​​:上市公司持有的比特币总量已达3490亿美元,占比特币流通量的15%,仅Strategy公司便持有超500亿美元头寸。摩根大通、Cantor Fitzgerald等传统金融巨头已组建专项基金,复制"MicroStrategy模式"——通过囤币改善资产负债表并推高股价
  • ​​流动性虹吸​​:比特币ETF单周资金流入超400亿美元,标普500成分股Coinbase的纳入更让被动投资者被动持有"币圈资产"。Glassnode数据显示,非流动性供应量达历史峰值,散户抛售与机构吸筹形成鲜明剪刀差
  • ​​监管破冰​​:美国《GENIUS稳定币法案》通过程序性投票,为传统资本入场铺设合规通道。特朗普政府推动的"战略比特币储备"计划,与禁止稳定币支付利息的条款形成微妙对冲,既防范银行体系流失存款,又为加密原生企业保留战略空间

自价格从 74,500 美元的波动低点反弹以来,已连续七周出现绿色蜡烛。 

历史比特币一周走势图。资料来源:Cointelegraph/TradingView

如果比特币在 5 月 25 日收于 106,500 美元以上,那么它将成为自 2023 年 10 月以来连续收盘上涨时间最长的一次。

Glassnode 指出,除了创下历史新高之外,比特币的市值和实际市值也分别创下 2.17 万亿美元和 9115 亿美元的新高。


比特币多头的目标是价格突破 11 万美元

由于 BTC 势头强劲,加密货币交易员 Titan of Crypto指出,2025 年比特币的价格目标仍为 135,000 美元。通过追踪过去两年中比特币在关键高时间框架阻力位和支撑位方面的回报,该预测使用了斐波那契扩展工具,该工具通过测量先前的价格波动来确定价格目标。 

历史Titan of Crypto 的比特币分析。资料来源:X.com

在图表上,1.618 斐波那契水平从波动低点延伸至波动高点,与 135,000 美元至 140,000 美元对齐,确定了潜在目标。

资深交易员彼得·布兰特(Peter Brandt)承认比特币创下新高,但他指出,在牛市期间,这样的里程碑“在技术上并不重要”。这位交易员表示, 

“牛市总是创下历史新高。这就是牛市的定义。到8月底,价格可能突破12.5万到15万美元???”

相比之下,技术分析师格特·范拉根(Gert van Lagen)设定的价格水平要高得多,在30万美元到32万美元之间。在最近的X帖子中,范拉根指出,比特币突破了持续四年的看涨“扩音器”形态,该形态以趋势线背离、高点不断走高、低点不断走低为标志,预示着突破上方阻力位后可能出现大幅上涨。

历史比特币的扩音器模式。资料来源:X.com

分析师利用艾略特波浪理论指出,BTC 正处于冲击周期的最后一波,支持比特币再次上涨 170% 至 190% 的看涨观点。

尽管市场正逐渐走向繁荣,但 Alphractal 首席执行官 João Wedson建议投资者保持谨慎和耐心。这位分析师指出,BTC 热图显示价格正朝着高杠杆区域移动,这表明做市商可能会针对过度自信的交易者进行清算。 

韦德森强调,公众对历史新高的痴迷可能会给多头和空头都带来陷阱。因此,“始终管理风险”至关重要。 

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