BTCFi 已死？

链捕手Published on 2025-05-06Last updated on 2025-05-06

作者：Kevin，GOAT Network

 

当然不是。事实上，BTCFi的时代甚至还未真正开始。

最近，在各类会议和社交媒体上，关于BTCFi“已死”的论调甚嚣尘上，尤其是以Babylon为代表的一批BTCFi协议在Token发行表现不佳之后，这种情绪愈加高涨。

虽然Babylon确实开创了一个新的叙事路径，但也暴露出不少结构性问题。其核心理念是将比特币作为底层资产，输出其“数字黄金”的安全性作为公共产品。从供给侧逻辑来看，这无可厚非，但除了技术上的可行性，关键在于：市场的真实需求在哪里？大型链往往不会采用（因为这会削弱它们自身原生Token的价值和角色），而小链虽然可能会选择，但其承接市场规模有限，难以支撑高估值。BTC安全性的价值捕捉如果只是这些altcoins, 不仅会持续带来这些altcoin的抛压，而且这个经济模型很难持续运转。

而基于Babylon发行的LST虽然具备流动性优势，但其实际能够捕捉的价值有限。目前LST收益基本依赖于平台自身或第三方Token激励，缺乏真实、原生的BTC收益支撑。

然而，这并不意味着BTCFi赛道走不通。相反，深入分析这些现象后，我们更应聚焦两个尚未解决的根本性问题：

  1. BTC原生的安全性，如何实现？
  2. 从经济视角出发，原生BTC收益的来源和可持续性又该如何建立？

比特币的“OP时刻”

就像以太坊L2在Optimistic Rollup模型真正跑通后迎来了爆发，Bitcoin也同样需要自己的“OP时刻”。由于比特币脚本语言的限制，以及用户对原生安全性的极高要求，实现“真正原生”的L2安全性是BTCFi能否成立的第一根支柱。之前所谓的BTC L2之所以无法获得主流BTC社区的认可，BTCfi之所以发展不起来，这个技术问题是核心原因之一。

目前市场上有两大技术路线可行：OP_CAT与BitVM2。

OP_CAT尽管技术上合理，但需要修改BTC主网脚本指令集。考虑到这项变更触及比特币原教旨主义底线，其推进难度极高。另外，随着比特币被越来越多的公众、金融机构、监管机构乃至大国政府接受，若改变其底层逻辑，将可能导致其稳定性和信任度的严重下降。

相比之下，BitVM2无需修改比特币协议，且结合OCP（Optimistic Challenge Process）模型，逻辑简洁、效能稳定。在解决经济模型的前提下，具备广泛落地的基础。

小剧透：BitVM2技术的突破比预期来得更快，敬请期待我们的发布。我们相信，这就是比特币的“OP时刻”。

所有问题，归根结底都是经济问题 (It's the economy, stupid)

但安全性不是全部，BTCFi真正的挑战还是经济模型。

经济模型的本质是供需匹配：BTC能提供什么价值？这些价值能满足哪些现实需求？这个将提供的价值与需求匹配的过程，就是产生收益的过程。而且，除了收益本身，我们还必须同时关注收益的获取成本，确保其具备持续性而非一次性的激励。

供给端来看，比特币的核心价值主要包括两点：

  1. 其去中心化与强共识带来的安全性；
  2. 作为主流加密资产的流动性价值。

需求端来看，BTC持有者普遍希望资产“躺赚”。但无论资产体量大小，大家都希望BTC能创造更多收益。这个诉求十分强烈，且有广泛基础。为了满足这些需求而开发的产品，本身需要基于比特币原生的安全性，同时需要利用流动性带来的资金规模、效率、套利机会等。

因此，建立在原生BTC安全性基础之上的L2，是BTCFi可持续发展的起点。结合ZK Rollup桥，BTC可以安全高效地引入二层进行经济活动。二层产生的交易量所带来的收益（如Gas费用），应部分返还给BTC持有者，作为他们提供流动性与安全性的回报。

如果二层的Gas费以BTC计价，这就构成了极其纯粹的“原生BTC收益”模型。在此之前，BTC几乎没有真正意义上的原生收益场景，除了CeFi中的资金费率。

Babylon的模式，本质是收割第三方Token，并不原生，也不可持续。

更进一步，要实现持续收益，还要有效控制L2的运营成本。

ZK Rollup解决方案中，Sequencer、Prover、Challenger、Operator、Committee等角色各自承担不同职责，收益结构也不同。如何在保证激励机制的同时控制总体成本，将决定L2是否具备可持续运营能力。

GOAT Network将很快发布新的《经济褐皮书》，详细阐述我们的解法，敬请期待。

写在最后

尽管市场仍处震荡期，但真正有价值的产品终将脱颖而出。我们坚信，BTC L2与BTCFi的时代即将来临。

基于BTC原生安全性的架构之上，我们预期将会出现更多、针对不同风险偏好的精细化的BTCFi产品，满足广大BTC持有者对收益的不同需求。

很高兴能与大家并肩前行，引领BTC L2和BTCFi的创新探索。

LFGOAT！

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