BTCFi 已死?

链捕手Published on 2025-05-06Last updated on 2025-05-06

作者:Kevin,GOAT Network

 

当然不是。事实上,BTCFi的时代甚至还未真正开始。

最近,在各类会议和社交媒体上,关于BTCFi“已死”的论调甚嚣尘上,尤其是以Babylon为代表的一批BTCFi协议在Token发行表现不佳之后,这种情绪愈加高涨。

虽然Babylon确实开创了一个新的叙事路径,但也暴露出不少结构性问题。其核心理念是将比特币作为底层资产,输出其“数字黄金”的安全性作为公共产品。从供给侧逻辑来看,这无可厚非,但除了技术上的可行性,关键在于:市场的真实需求在哪里?大型链往往不会采用(因为这会削弱它们自身原生Token的价值和角色),而小链虽然可能会选择,但其承接市场规模有限,难以支撑高估值。BTC安全性的价值捕捉如果只是这些altcoins, 不仅会持续带来这些altcoin的抛压,而且这个经济模型很难持续运转。

而基于Babylon发行的LST虽然具备流动性优势,但其实际能够捕捉的价值有限。目前LST收益基本依赖于平台自身或第三方Token激励,缺乏真实、原生的BTC收益支撑。

然而,这并不意味着BTCFi赛道走不通。相反,深入分析这些现象后,我们更应聚焦两个尚未解决的根本性问题:

  1. BTC原生的安全性,如何实现?
  2. 从经济视角出发,原生BTC收益的来源和可持续性又该如何建立?

比特币的“OP时刻”

就像以太坊L2在Optimistic Rollup模型真正跑通后迎来了爆发,Bitcoin也同样需要自己的“OP时刻”。由于比特币脚本语言的限制,以及用户对原生安全性的极高要求,实现“真正原生”的L2安全性是BTCFi能否成立的第一根支柱。之前所谓的BTC L2之所以无法获得主流BTC社区的认可,BTCfi之所以发展不起来,这个技术问题是核心原因之一。

目前市场上有两大技术路线可行:OP_CAT与BitVM2。

OP_CAT尽管技术上合理,但需要修改BTC主网脚本指令集。考虑到这项变更触及比特币原教旨主义底线,其推进难度极高。另外,随着比特币被越来越多的公众、金融机构、监管机构乃至大国政府接受,若改变其底层逻辑,将可能导致其稳定性和信任度的严重下降。

相比之下,BitVM2无需修改比特币协议,且结合OCP(Optimistic Challenge Process)模型,逻辑简洁、效能稳定。在解决经济模型的前提下,具备广泛落地的基础。

小剧透:BitVM2技术的突破比预期来得更快,敬请期待我们的发布。我们相信,这就是比特币的“OP时刻”。

所有问题,归根结底都是经济问题 (It's the economy, stupid)

但安全性不是全部,BTCFi真正的挑战还是经济模型。

经济模型的本质是供需匹配:BTC能提供什么价值?这些价值能满足哪些现实需求?这个将提供的价值与需求匹配的过程,就是产生收益的过程。而且,除了收益本身,我们还必须同时关注收益的获取成本,确保其具备持续性而非一次性的激励。

供给端来看,比特币的核心价值主要包括两点:

  1. 其去中心化与强共识带来的安全性
  2. 作为主流加密资产的流动性价值

需求端来看,BTC持有者普遍希望资产“躺赚”。但无论资产体量大小,大家都希望BTC能创造更多收益。这个诉求十分强烈,且有广泛基础。为了满足这些需求而开发的产品,本身需要基于比特币原生的安全性,同时需要利用流动性带来的资金规模、效率、套利机会等。

因此,建立在原生BTC安全性基础之上的L2,是BTCFi可持续发展的起点。结合ZK Rollup桥,BTC可以安全高效地引入二层进行经济活动。二层产生的交易量所带来的收益(如Gas费用),应部分返还给BTC持有者,作为他们提供流动性与安全性的回报。

如果二层的Gas费以BTC计价,这就构成了极其纯粹的“原生BTC收益”模型。在此之前,BTC几乎没有真正意义上的原生收益场景,除了CeFi中的资金费率。

Babylon的模式,本质是收割第三方Token,并不原生,也不可持续。

更进一步,要实现持续收益,还要有效控制L2的运营成本。

ZK Rollup解决方案中,Sequencer、Prover、Challenger、Operator、Committee等角色各自承担不同职责,收益结构也不同。如何在保证激励机制的同时控制总体成本,将决定L2是否具备可持续运营能力。

GOAT Network将很快发布新的《经济褐皮书》,详细阐述我们的解法,敬请期待。

写在最后

尽管市场仍处震荡期,但真正有价值的产品终将脱颖而出。我们坚信,BTC L2与BTCFi的时代即将来临。

基于BTC原生安全性的架构之上,我们预期将会出现更多、针对不同风险偏好的精细化的BTCFi产品,满足广大BTC持有者对收益的不同需求。

很高兴能与大家并肩前行,引领BTC L2和BTCFi的创新探索。

LFGOAT!

Trending Cryptos

Related Reads

Goldman Sachs: July Smashes Through Crowded Trades, U.S. Stock Bull Market Not Broken but Harder to Navigate

Goldman Sachs: July Sees Crowded Trades Unwound, U.S. Bull Market Intact but Getting Tougher. The U.S. stock market in July did not see an index-level crash, but rather a significant unwinding of speculative positions. While the S&P 500 remained stable—trading within a narrow 3.5% range and staying within 2% of its high—underlying market dynamics were volatile. Heavily crowded trades, particularly in high-momentum tech, AI-linked stocks, and Asian strategies, faced severe pressure and forced deleveraging. Data indicates this was a meaningful cleanse, not a minor adjustment. Global tech exposure saw its largest sell-off in over five years, leverage in Korean equity ETFs plummeted, and Goldman's prime brokerage recorded the largest gross exposure reduction since late 2022. Leverage on momentum factors among fundamental long/short clients fell to the 28th percentile of its one-year range. The AI trade narrative shifted from pure potential to a focus on tangible returns. While Meta failed to show clear AI monetization, Microsoft and Amazon provided evidence that massive capital expenditure is translating into scalable revenue and product growth, preventing a blanket sell-off of the AI sector. The Federal Reserve's more opaque communication style and volatility in long-end Treasury yields have introduced new friction, particularly for rate-sensitive growth and tech stocks. The broader outlook for U.S. equities remains favorable, supported by a strong economy, robust earnings, and substantial AI capital expenditure. However, risk/reward is no longer cheap, and the market's upward elasticity has weakened. The Nasdaq 100's trajectory—up 12% year-to-date despite significant pullbacks—illustrates that the bull trend persists but the path is becoming more difficult. The key lesson from July is that the market no longer rewards crowded, highly leveraged trades, requiring more disciplined and liquid portfolio approaches.

marsbit12m ago

Goldman Sachs: July Smashes Through Crowded Trades, U.S. Stock Bull Market Not Broken but Harder to Navigate

marsbit12m ago

Interview with Robinhood Executive: Meme + Tokenized US Stocks as "Barbell" Customer Acquisition Strategy, All Business Lines Achieve Hundreds of Millions in Revenue

Interview with Robinhood executive Johann Kerbrat reveals the company's "barbell" customer acquisition strategy for its new Robinhood Chain, combining meme tokens with tokenized stocks. Three weeks after mainnet launch, the chain has seen over $3B in weekly DEX volume and 105M transactions. Kerbrat explains the logic behind the permissionless chain: meme tokens attract DeFi users, while tokenized real-world assets (RWA), currently over 90 US stocks and ETFs accessible in 120+ countries, serve global users. The goal is to bring Robinhood's 27 million funded accounts on-chain by simplifying DeFi with a user-friendly interface, exemplified by features like Robinhood Earn which offers yield without requiring wallet management. Built on Arbitrum's technology stack for its speed, low cost, and Ethereum's security, the chain focuses on financial products like Earn, spot trading, and perpetuals. Kerbrat downplays direct competition with platforms like Base, emphasizing the goal of expanding the overall market for on-chain assets. He details selective partnerships (e.g., Morpho, Lighter) based on compliance, unique UX, and differentiation. While regulatory clarity is pending for US perpetuals, the expansion continues via Bitstamp in Europe. Finally, Kerbrat positions Robinhood as a "super app" integrating stocks, options, crypto, banking, and AI trading, with all major business lines generating hundreds of millions in revenue. For the chain, current priority is driving adoption over maximizing gas fee revenue.

marsbit2h ago

Interview with Robinhood Executive: Meme + Tokenized US Stocks as "Barbell" Customer Acquisition Strategy, All Business Lines Achieve Hundreds of Millions in Revenue

marsbit2h ago

Fidelity Q3 Report: BTC, ETH, and SOL Continue to Build Bottoms; How Much Further Will This Crypto Bear Market Go?

Fidelity's Q3 Crypto Signal Report analyzes the current bear market, noting Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Solana (SOL) are in a prolonged bottoming phase. Key indicators like the weighted Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) have turned negative (-0.01), signaling the market is slightly below its aggregate cost basis, with BTC acting as the primary stabilizing asset. BTC's dominance has risen to 68%, indicating a lack of capital rotation to other digital assets. Performance has been weak across the board, with BTC, ETH, and SOL down significantly year-to-date. Market sentiment is depressed, exacerbated by substantial outflows from spot ETPs and a challenging macro environment. The report compares the current ~203-day downtrend to historical ~300-day bottoming cycles, suggesting the process may be two-thirds complete, with late 2026 as a potential timeframe to monitor. For Bitcoin, NUPL at 0.09 indicates cautious sentiment, while momentum signals remain negative. The Yardstick metric points to potential undervaluation relative to network security (hashrate). Ethereum's NUPL is deep in the "capitulation" zone at -0.43, a historically positive signal for future returns, though its momentum and network fee revenue are negative. Solana shows the deepest NUPL at -0.72 but demonstrates relative resilience in on-chain activity and stablecoin transfer volume. The report concludes that while several metrics are near historical capitulation levels, a definitive market bottom has not yet been established. The path forward likely involves continued consolidation, with BTC's relative strength and fundamental on-chain usage for ETH and SOL providing key areas for investor observation.

marsbit2h ago

Fidelity Q3 Report: BTC, ETH, and SOL Continue to Build Bottoms; How Much Further Will This Crypto Bear Market Go?

marsbit2h ago

Trading

Spot

Hot Articles

What is $GOAT

Understanding Goat,$$goat: Innovations and Community in the Crypto Space Introduction to Goat,$$goat In the dynamic and often unpredictable landscape of cryptocurrency, the term “Goat,$$goat” has emerged to represent two distinct projects that are making waves in the blockchain community. This article aims to delve into both projects, offering readers a comprehensive overview of their aims, functionality, innovative aspects, and community engagement strategies. The first project, commonly referred to as “GOAT,” is a memecoin built on the Solana blockchain. It has gained notable attention for its unique marketing strategy, spearheaded by an AI bot known as Truth Terminal. The second venture, also named “GOAT,” operates as a Layer 2 (L2) solution on the Bitcoin network, focusing on providing sustainable yield for Bitcoin holders. Together, these projects demonstrate the evolving nature of the cryptocurrency industry, blending AI technology, community building, and innovative financial solutions. What is Goat,$$goat? 1. GOAT (Solana-based Memecoin) Overview: The GOAT project on Solana embodies the playful and often irreverent nature of memecoins. It leverages the engaging persona of Truth Terminal, an AI bot that has become a cultural icon within the memecoin community. The project embraces a philosophy known as the “Goatse Gospel,” aiming to challenge traditional norms concerning digital interactions and community engagement. Aims: The primary ambition of the Solana-based GOAT project is to explore unsupervised interactions within digital spaces, cultivate an AI-driven community, and harness the influence of AI personalities to set trends online. 2. GOAT (Bitcoin Layer 2 Solution) Overview: On the other hand, the second GOAT project serves a more serious purpose as a Bitcoin Layer 2 solution. Designed to address critical concerns related to security and liquidity fragmentation within the Bitcoin ecosystem, this project integrates decentralized sequencers and a novel locking mechanism based on Bitcoin Script. Aims: The main objective of the Bitcoin L2 GOAT project is to provide a reliable and effective means for Bitcoin holders to generate yield via decentralized finance (DeFi) applications, all while safeguarding the integrity and security of the Bitcoin blockchain. Who is the Creator of Goat,$$goat? 1. GOAT (Solana-based Memecoin) Creator: The concept behind Truth Terminal was initially developed by Andy Ayrey, who envisioned it as a digital twin before it morphed into a fully-fledged AI persona. While Ayrey's involvement with Truth Terminal is clear, it is essential to note that the GOAT token itself was conceived by an anonymous developer influenced by Ayrey's innovative ideas. 2. GOAT (Bitcoin Layer 2 Solution) Creators: In contrast, the Bitcoin L2 GOAT project is brought to life by a dedicated team of core contributors. Notable individuals include Kevin Liu, Dr. Redouane Elkamhi, Dr. Eric Wang, Stephen Duan, Annie Zhao, Brett Wags, Dane Great, Dylan Kawalec, and Mario. This collective brings diverse expertise and experience to the project, enhancing its potential for success. Who are the Investors of Goat,$$goat? 1. GOAT (Solana-based Memecoin) Investors: Noteworthy contributions have been made to the Solana-based GOAT project by influential figures within the cryptocurrency sector. Most prominently, Marc Andreessen made headlines by donating ₹50,000 in Bitcoin towards the development of Truth Terminal. While further details about formal investment foundations or organizations behind the GOAT token remain vague, Andreessen's involvement emphasizes the project's credibility and potential. 2. GOAT (Bitcoin Layer 2 Solution) Investors: Information related to specific investors or organizations supporting the Bitcoin L2 GOAT project is surprisingly scarce. Details about the backing of this project have not been publicized, which might reflect its nascent stage or the current confidentiality typical of early-stage crypto projects. How Does Goat,$$goat Work? 1. GOAT (Solana-based Memecoin) Unique Factors: The GOAT project leverages the capabilities of Truth Terminal, an innovative AI bot, to enhance marketing strategies and foster community interactions. The AI engages users by sharing insights and humour that resonate with the community's ethos, allowing for a dynamic and continuously evolving growth narrative. 2. GOAT (Bitcoin Layer 2 Solution) Unique Factors: This version of GOAT uniquely incorporates decentralized sequencers alongside a native Bitcoin Script-based locking mechanism to ensure both efficiency and security. Additionally, it implements an Optimistic Challenge Process (OCP) using BitVM2’s permissionless bridge protocol, facilitating the verification of off-chain computations directly on the Bitcoin network. This synergy reflects a commitment to not only promote growth in Bitcoin yield but also to enhance user trust through security features. Timeline of Goat,$$goat 1. GOAT (Solana-based Memecoin) July 2024: Truth Terminal garners notable attention following Marc Andreessen’s significant donation of ₹50,000 in Bitcoin, marking a pivotal moment in community engagement. October 10, 2024: The official creation of the GOAT token takes place, aligning with the project's overarching goals. October 14, 2024: The token's presale event is notably successful, raising an impressive ₹104.11 million in funding. October 2024: Within a mere ten days of trading, GOAT achieves a market cap exceeding ₹878 million, showcasing the strong demand and interest in the project. 2. GOAT (Bitcoin Layer 2 Solution) Timeline: Currently, detailed chronological milestones for the Bitcoin L2 GOAT project are not publicly available. As the project evolves, regular updates may be anticipated by the community. Key Topics About Goat,$$goat Community Engagement A common thread that binds both GOAT projects is an emphasis on community engagement, albeit through different strategies. The Solana-based GOAT harnesses AI technology for active community interaction and feedback, while the Bitcoin L2 project aims to create an engaging platform for BTC holders, enabling them to participate in yield generation. Innovation Both projects showcase innovative approaches within their respective niches. The playful integration of AI in the marketing for the Solana-based GOAT contrasts with the serious infrastructure advancements introduced by the Bitcoin L2 GOAT through its decentralized solutions and smart contract functionalities. Security A focal point for the Bitcoin L2 GOAT is its ability to address security concerns. By introducing a native Bitcoin Script-based locking mechanism coupled with an Optimistic Challenge Process, the project prioritizes not only yield generation but also the steadfast integrity of transactions within the Bitcoin network. Conclusion As the cryptocurrency space continues to evolve, projects like Goat,$$goat exemplify the fusion of creativity, technology, and community that defines Web3. Whether it is through the playful engagement of a memecoin on Solana or the serious financial solutions provided by a Bitcoin Layer 2 project, both initiatives pave the way for future innovation in the blockchain universe. Through community-driven strategies and a robust focus on security and efficiency, Goat,$$goat represents an intriguing evolution in the ever-changing crypto landscape.

72 Total ViewsPublished 2024.10.22Updated 2024.12.03

What is $GOAT

Discussions

Welcome to the HTX Community. Here, you can stay informed about the latest platform developments and gain access to professional market insights. Users' opinions on the price of GOAT (GOAT) are presented below.

活动图片