准备追赶黄金!顶级投行预计比特币将很快突破12万美元

金十数据Published on 2025-04-29Last updated on 2025-04-29

据渣打银行分析师杰夫・肯德里克(Geoff Kendrick)称,比特币在今年年初的下跌态势,将在本季度让位于新一轮涨势,并创下历史新高。

肯德里克预计,全球第一大加密货币将在未来几个月内创下新的历史高点,利好因素将推动比特币涨至12万美元。

这位数字资产研究全球主管周一写道:“虽然很难预测比特币大幅上涨的时机,但我们认为,目前从美国资产中撤出的潜在战略资产重新配置,可能引发这样的上涨行情。”

“如果是这样的话,我们预计比特币将在第二季度创下历史新高,并在夏季进一步上涨。我们维持比特币年底达到20万美元的预测。”

这位坚定的加密货币多头为今年以来表现令人失望的比特币描绘了乐观的前景。人们曾寄望于特朗普政府对加密货币友好的政策能推动比特币进一步上涨,但在1月份触及10.9万美元后,它失去了上涨动力。

如今,肯德里克认为有三大理由将推动比特币大幅上涨。

经济动荡提升比特币吸引力

首先,经济不确定性为加密货币创造了有利环境。关税的升级以及对美联储独立性的威胁,降低了投资者对美国国债和美元等传统避险资产的兴趣,因市场对货币和贸易体系受到的干扰感到不安。

不过,肯德里克表示,政府信誉受损往往会直接让比特币受益。他说,10年期美国国债期限溢价(即投资者持有该资产所要求的补偿金额)达到年度高点,这表明比特币可能会赶上黄金近期的涨幅。

他写道:“最近一周的交易型开放式指数基金(ETF)资金流向表明,避险资产之间的这种资金转移已经开始,资金正从黄金ETF流向比特币ETF。” 如果这种情况持续下去,这意味着投资者开始将比特币视为比黄金更好的避险资产。

关税引发的购买行为

其次,渣打银行的分析显示,自特朗普4月9日宣布将大多数国家的对等关税推迟90天以来,美国投资者一直在抢购比特币。

肯德里克写道:“从那以后,尽管科技股和比特币价格都上涨了,但比特币的表现更为出色。两者的相关性被打破以及美国投资者的购买行为表明,他们正在寻求非美国资产。

比特币在4月8日触及年内最低水平,交易价格约为7.6万美元。但自那以来,它已飙升了24%。

肯德里克还补充道,与此同时,“比特币巨鲸”(持有超过1000枚比特币的投资者)在关税引发的价格下跌期间一直在囤积比特币。

更多催化剂正在形成

投资者还应关注5月中旬美国ETF向美国证券交易委员会(SEC)提交的13F文件,以确定机构对比特币的支持是否在增加。肯德里克预计,最新的文件将显示,养老基金和主权财富基金的购买量有所增加

与此同时,特朗普强调了今年夏天可能出台稳定币立法,随着加密货币市场继续向主流金融体系扩张,这一举措可能会为加密货币市场提供新的推动力。

Trending Cryptos

Related Reads

Circle CEO Responds to the OUSD Challenge: Stablecoin is a Winner-Takes-All Business, and We Won't Slow Down

In response to questions about the OUSD stablecoin initiative, Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire argues that the stablecoin market is a "winner-take-most" platform business driven by powerful network effects, and Circle has no plans to slow down. He outlines three key drivers behind USDC's dominant position: 1. **Protocol/Software Layer Network Effects**: The value of a stablecoin network grows as more developers and services integrate it, creating compounding utility and user preference. Circle has spent nearly a decade building this ecosystem with USDC, now accelerated by mainstream adoption and enhanced by software stacks like CCTP and Gateway for interoperability. 2. **Liquidity Network Effects**: Liquidity begets more liquidity. USDC has achieved top-tier global liquidity—ranking among the top three digital assets alongside BTC and USDT—through nearly a decade of building deep primary and secondary market access across regions and venues. 3. **Regulatory and Policy Integration**: Establishing a global stablecoin requires deep regulatory engagement, licensing, and compliance across key markets—a significant, long-term investment where Circle is a leader. Allaire cites Artemis data showing USDC facilitated 80% of all dollar stablecoin on-chain transaction volume in Q1 2026, with USDT at 20% and all others negligible. He addresses OUSD's purported advantages: "free" minting/burning is often not sustainable in practice; redistributing all revenue can starve essential infrastructure investment; and large consortium models historically struggle with inefficiency and slow execution, unlike focused strategic partnerships. He reaffirms Circle's strong ongoing partnership with Coinbase on USDC and notes Circle collaborates with dozens of other stablecoin issuers through its expanding platform (Arc, CCTP, CPN, etc.). While welcoming OUSD to the ecosystem, Allaire asserts that Circle's vast, trusted network and continued investment make USDC the foundational digital dollar infrastructure for the world.

链捕手2m ago

Circle CEO Responds to the OUSD Challenge: Stablecoin is a Winner-Takes-All Business, and We Won't Slow Down

链捕手2m ago

Q2 Crypto Market Review: Did Bitcoin Rise for 'Nothing'? Did Money Flow to AI and On-Chain?

Q2 2026 Crypto Market Recap: Bitcoin's Gains Erased Amid Shift to AI and On-Chain Activity The second quarter of 2026 saw a significant reversal for the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin gave back all its April gains, ending Q2 down approximately 11%, while major stock indices posted strong gains. This divergence was driven by a hawkish shift in Fed rate expectations, capital rotation into AI stocks, and weakening liquidity channels into crypto. Key demand pillars deteriorated simultaneously. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $4.08 billion for the quarter, with outflows dominating June. Crypto treasury entity Strategy's bitcoin accumulation slowed markedly, and the total stablecoin market cap contracted by ~$4.2 billion. This created a tighter liquidity environment. Exchange data reflected the downturn. Spot trading volumes fell 28% quarter-over-quarter. The market underwent significant deleveraging, with $8.35 billion in long liquidations for BTC and ETH, primarily in late May/early June. Open interest and order book liquidity also declined. Despite the bearish price action, structural developments point to an expanding on-chain ecosystem. These include the rise of tokenized stocks with full legal rights, the growth of RWA (real-world asset) perpetual contracts for trading stocks and commodities 24/7, and the use of crypto markets for price discovery ahead of major events like the SpaceX IPO. On-chain vaults are also emerging as a core layer for institutional capital allocation.

Foresight News21m ago

Q2 Crypto Market Review: Did Bitcoin Rise for 'Nothing'? Did Money Flow to AI and On-Chain?

Foresight News21m ago

Xing Bo Strikes Again: Last Time 'Critiquing' World Models, This Time It's Agents' Turn

Xing Bo, President of MBZUAI and professor at Carnegie Mellon University, along with co-authors Mingkai Deng and Jinyu Hou, has released a new paper, "Critique of Agent Model," critiquing the current state of artificial intelligence agents. The paper draws a crucial distinction between "agentic" systems, which rely on external toolchains, prompts, and workflows, and truly "agentive" systems capable of genuine autonomy driven by internal decision-making structures. To illustrate this, it references a real-world incident where an AI programming assistant, following an external prompt but lacking internalized judgment, caused a catastrophic data deletion. The authors propose a detailed analysis and a new framework, "Goal-Identity-Configurator" (GIC), for building truly autonomous agents. This framework systematically addresses five key dimensions where current "Agent" designs fall short: 1. **Goal:** Moving from step-by-step human instruction to a system capable of autonomously decomposing a single long-term goal and adapting sub-goals based on new information. 2. **Identity:** Evolving self-assessment updated by experience, rather than a static description in a system prompt. 3. **Decision Making:** Replacing textual Chain-of-Thought reasoning with "simulative reasoning" that uses a dedicated world model to predict real-world consequences before selecting actions. 4. **Cognitive Control:** Introducing a separate "System III" metacognitive module that dynamically decides when to deliberate, stick to a plan, or act quickly. 5. **Learning:** Enabling "continual autonomous learning," where the agent itself decides when to act, practice in simulation, or update its world model and self-perception. The GIC architecture integrates six components—a belief encoder, goal decomposer, identity evolver, configurator (System III), simulation-based planner (System II), and executor (System I)—to embody these principles. The paper argues that a growth path akin to pilot training (ground theory, simulator practice, real deployment) should be underpinned by a unified cognitive architecture, not separate workflows. On safety, the authors contend that the GIC framework's modular, explicit design enhances inspectability, allowing problematic behavior to be traced to specific components (e.g., flawed goal or poorly trained module) rather than emerging opaquely. However, they acknowledge that ultimate safety depends on correctly training these modules in the first place. In conclusion, the paper challenges the loose application of the term "Agent," asserting that task completion alone does not equal true autonomy. True autonomy requires goals, identity, and judgment to be genuinely internalized within the agent's architecture, not merely enforced by external scripts.

marsbit1h ago

Xing Bo Strikes Again: Last Time 'Critiquing' World Models, This Time It's Agents' Turn

marsbit1h ago

Trading

Spot

Hot Articles

What is $BITCOIN

DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN): A Comprehensive Analysis Introduction to DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a blockchain-based project operating on the Solana network, which aims to combine the characteristics of traditional precious metals with the innovation of decentralized technologies. While it shares a name with Bitcoin, often referred to as “digital gold” due to its perception as a store of value, DIGITAL GOLD is a separate token designed to create a unique ecosystem within the Web3 landscape. Its goal is to position itself as a viable alternative digital asset, although specifics regarding its applications and functionalities are still developing. What is DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a cryptocurrency token explicitly designed for use on the Solana blockchain. In contrast to Bitcoin, which provides a widely recognized value storage role, this token appears to focus on broader applications and characteristics. Notable aspects include: Blockchain Infrastructure: The token is built on the Solana blockchain, known for its capacity to handle high-speed and low-cost transactions. Supply Dynamics: DIGITAL GOLD has a maximum supply capped at 100 quadrillion tokens (100P $BITCOIN), although details regarding its circulating supply are currently undisclosed. Utility: While precise functionalities are not explicitly outlined, there are indications that the token could be utilized for various applications, potentially involving decentralized applications (dApps) or asset tokenization strategies. Who is the Creator of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? At present, the identity of the creators and development team behind DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) remains unknown. This situation is typical among many innovative projects within the blockchain space, particularly those aligning with decentralized finance and meme coin phenomena. While such anonymity may foster a community-driven culture, it intensifies concerns about governance and accountability. Who are the Investors of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? The available information indicates that DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) does not have any known institutional backers or prominent venture capital investments. The project seems to operate on a peer-to-peer model focused on community support and adoption rather than traditional funding routes. Its activity and liquidity are primarily situated on decentralized exchanges (DEXs), such as PumpSwap, rather than established centralized trading platforms, further highlighting its grassroots approach. How DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) Works The operational mechanics of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) can be elaborated on based on its blockchain design and network attributes: Consensus Mechanism: By leveraging Solana’s unique proof-of-history (PoH) combined with a proof-of-stake (PoS) model, the project ensures efficient transaction validation contributing to the network's high performance. Tokenomics: While specific deflationary mechanisms have not been extensively detailed, the vast maximum token supply implies that it may cater to microtransactions or niche use cases that are still to be defined. Interoperability: There exists the potential for integration with Solana’s broader ecosystem, including various decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms. However, the details regarding specific integrations remain unspecified. Timeline of Key Events Here is a timeline that highlights significant milestones concerning DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN): 2023: The initial deployment of the token occurs on the Solana blockchain, marked by its contract address. 2024: DIGITAL GOLD gains visibility as it becomes available for trading on decentralized exchanges like PumpSwap, allowing users to trade it against SOL. 2025: The project witnesses sporadic trading activity and potential interest in community-led engagements, although no noteworthy partnerships or technical advancements have been documented as of yet. Critical Analysis Strengths Scalability: The underlying Solana infrastructure supports high transaction volumes, which could enhance the utility of $BITCOIN in various transaction scenarios. Accessibility: The potential low trading price per token could attract retail investors, facilitating wider participation due to fractional ownership opportunities. Risks Lack of Transparency: The absence of publicly known backers, developers, or an audit process may yield skepticism regarding the project's sustainability and trustworthiness. Market Volatility: The trading activity is heavily reliant on speculative behavior, which can result in significant price volatility and uncertainty for investors. Conclusion DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) emerges as an intriguing yet ambiguous project within the rapidly evolving Solana ecosystem. While it attempts to leverage the “digital gold” narrative, its departure from Bitcoin's established role as a store of value underscores the need for a clearer differentiation of its intended utility and governance structure. Future acceptance and adoption will likely depend on addressing the current opacity and defining its operational and economic strategies more explicitly. Note: This report encompasses synthesised information available as of October 2023, and developments may have transpired beyond the research period.

539 Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

What is $BITCOIN

Discussions

Welcome to the HTX Community. Here, you can stay informed about the latest platform developments and gain access to professional market insights. Users' opinions on the price of BTC (BTC) are presented below.

活动图片