本轮周期为什么加密 VC 普遍不赚钱了？

深潮TechFlowPublished on 2025-04-21Last updated on 2025-04-21

Abstract

解锁机制、市场缺乏叙事持续性以及部分 VC 被边缘化或是主要原因。


撰文：1912212.eth，Foresight News


上轮周期，真可谓是加密 VC 的黄金时代。a16z 与 Paradigm 坐在金字塔上呼风唤雨，Multicoin Capital 凭借 Solana 等一战成名，2021 至 2022 年巅峰时期，毫不夸张的说，每隔两三天，DeFi/NFT/ 游戏领域就有一个项目获得 VC 融资，Web3 革命呐喊声充斥着社交网络。The Block Pro 融资数据显示，VC 在 2021 年向初创公司和项目投资了 290 亿美元，2022 年则攀升至 333 亿美元。众多 VC 在公链、DeFi 以及 NFT 等赚得盆满钵满。从种子轮轮到上所后，甚至获得将近几十甚至数百倍的咂舌回报。


然而时过境迁，如今一切都变了。VC 在 2024 年向加密货币和区块链初创公司投资了约 137 亿美元，比 2023 年的 107 亿美元增长了 28%。然而，资金仍远远低上轮周期的峰值。
本轮周期中，加密 VC 的回报表现令人失望。诸多项目估值过高，代币价格在二级市场崩盘，VC 被社区以及散户推上批斗台，VC 的退出渠道受阻。比特币从周期低点的 1.5 万美元，升至最高将近 11 万美元，涨幅近 734%，从 2022 年至 2025 年，其年化收益率约 94.28%。市场上有多少基金跑赢了 BTC 呢？近日，杜均表示 ABCDE 已停止新项目的投资和二期募资，重新思考如何参与行业的发展。

那么导致 VC 如今陷入困境甚至亏钱的原因都有哪些呢？


解锁机制仍不完善


解锁在某种程度上将 VC 与项目方利益深度绑定在一起，同甘共苦。然而加密市场非常讲究时机，加密 VC 或许在种子轮以及 A 轮等进入的成本较低，然而往往很多项目代币在真正 VC 解锁期已处于熊市阶段，加密 VC 的退出主要依赖代币上市后的二级市场交易，但市场波动性高，流动性不足。许多项目在空投或解锁后遭遇抛售，代币价格一泻千里，VC 的账面收益化为乌有。


LD CAPITAL 创始人 Jack Yi 就表示，「投资人普遍面临"1+3"的严格锁仓期，而交易所、项目方、做市商和 KOL 却不受此限制。在币圈 4 年内可能经历 10 个叙事变化的高速迭代环境下，这种不对等机制使投资人处于明显劣势。」


能成功的热门项目仍是少数


加密项目成热门项目，且在合适的时机 TGE 上大所的概率本身非常低。上轮周期的主线叙事被圈内外认可，赛道的可持续性也相当长。不过到了本轮周期，各个热门赛代和项目往往没有可持续性。


从去年至今，铭文、再质押、去中心化科学研究、Ton 小游戏、社交、L2、比特币生态等赛道往往在一阵短暂热度后即陷入沉寂，即便在这些项目热度处于巅峰期上了大所，该项目也需要实现高倍以上回报才能覆盖整体投资和时间成本，而按当前上线项目市值，这一目标难以在解锁时实现。


此外，诸多冷门项目既未上线大所，甚至连二线交易所也没能上线，不少项目方在空投阶段或者社区公关出现不小问题，导致即便 TGE，也无任何热度和买盘。项目很快就被边缘化，代币价格更是可想而知。


加密市场的资金和热度又在相当长的时间在比特币、MEME 以及 AI 概念币轮转，无疑也为 VC 的回报表现其雪上加霜。


部分 VC 被边缘化


除少数处于顶尖的 VC 外，部分 VC 并无多大话语权，真正热门项目投不进，或者即便能投进其估值已变得相当高，能获得的回报已变低，所获得的额度也少得可怜。


而不在热门关注度的项目其市场热度和回报往往并不高，即便其获得大额度也难有大回报。「好项目、低估值、大额度」已成不可能三角难题。


更深层次的问题在于，VC 的角色正在被边缘化。传统 VC 通过战略指导、资源整合和品牌背书为项目增值，但在加密市场，这些附加价值正在失效。项目方发现，通过 KOL 的社交媒体营销或与交易所合作，能更快速地吸引散户资金。VC 的背书不仅影响力下降，甚至有时被社区视为割韭菜的信号。许多 VC 仅提供资金，缺乏对项目的深度赋能，投资组合的失败率居高不下。


此外，部分项目方通过公私募平台（如 Echo、CoinList）直接向散户募资，绕过 VC，削弱了 VC 的议价能力和退出机会。


路在何方


VC 必须回归基本面。未来的赢家将是那些具备实际应用场景、产品市场契合度和可持续收入模型的项目。稳定币、RWA 代币化、数据基础设施是值得深耕的赛道。VC 需要加强对项目基本面的尽调，摒弃对热点的盲目追逐。其次，VC 需要从单纯的资金提供者转型为项目的战略合作伙伴。提供技术支持、市场资源和合规指导，才能真正提升项目的成功率。
加密 VC 的本轮亏损，是宏观经济寒冬、行业乱象和自身策略失误的共同结果。估值泡沫、退出困境、角色边缘化……这些问题如同一面镜子，映照出 VC 们在狂热市场中的迷失。然而，2025 年的市场正在酝酿新的机会。整合趋势、监管清晰化和传统金融的入场，为 VC 提供了重塑自我的舞台。从投机者到价值创造者，加密 VC 需要以更专业、更长远的视角，重新定义自己的角色。

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