BTC波动率2周回顾(三月31日-四月14日)

Odaily星球日报Published on 2025-04-15Last updated on 2025-04-15

Abstract

过去两周内尽管其他市场表现一片混乱，比特币价格表现相当坚挺。技术指标显示未来几周内比特币价格可能在82-88k 美元的范围内横盘整理，当前市场上的仓位看起来也更加干净。如果74k美元的双底继续保持，标志着自大选以来的下跌修正期结束，并为币价在接下来一个月内上涨至115-120k美元铺平道路。

BTC波动率2周回顾(三月31日-四月14日)

关键指标：(三月 31 日 下午四点 -> 四月 14 日 下午四点 香港时间)

  • BTC 对 USD 上涨 3% ( 82 千美元->84.45 千美元), ETH 对 USD 下跌 11.1% ( 1, 800->1, 620)

BTC波动率2周回顾(三月31日-四月14日)

  • 过去两周内尽管其他市场表现一片混乱，比特币价格表现相当坚挺。上周币价两次触及 74 千美元这个自去年美国大选结束后形成的初始阻力位，随后突破 1 月以来的中期下行区间。现在被卡在 81.8-82.3 千美元的强力支撑区域内，头顶上强力阻力位在 88-90 千美元之间。

  • 总体而言，技术指标显示未来几周内比特币价格可能在 82-88 千美元的范围内横盘整理，当前市场上的仓位看起来也更加干净。如果 74 千美元的双底继续保持，标志着自大选以来的下跌修正期结束，并为币价在接下来一个月内上涨至 115-120 千美元铺平道路。

市场主题

  • 过去两周全球市场都出现了极端的波动。特朗普的对等关税政策超过了最鹰派的预期，尤其是其对中国施压最终演变成了报复性升级导致双方关税都超过了 100% ，换而言之让两国之间不再可能进行贸易往来。VIX 恐慌指数从 4 月初的 20 飙升至将近 60 的高点，市场在努力消化关税事件带来的影响。特朗普花了一周的时间试图把各国拉到谈判桌前，但最终未能撼动立场。由于美债市场十分脆弱，特朗普宣布对除中国外的其他国家进行为期 90 天的关税暂缓，缓解了市场的情绪。VIX 指数在上周收盘时回到 40 以下。

  • 这一事件的影响不局限于股票市场，实际上市场在关税政策宣布后十分抗拒美国资产，导致 DXY 美元指数仅在四月份就下跌了近 5% 。而一度被视为“避险资产”的长期美国国债也出现抛售，类似于一场“新兴资产危机”。据估计，全球持有的未对冲美元资产超过 10 万亿美元。因此，尽管美元价值调整的速度已经放缓，但鉴于市场在重新调整川普时代的资产对冲，这一趋势不可避免。

  • 至于加密货币，最近一段时间基本受资产波动的影响。比特币数次下探 74-75 千美元的区间，同时以太坊上出现了大幅爆仓并短暂下跌到 1, 400 。但随着 90 天关税暂停和 VIX 指数下跌，股票市场情况好转，比特币开始重新站稳脚跟，与传统市场表现出差异化的趋势。最终，我们仍需要更持续稳定的宏观背景支持比特币上涨到 88-90 千美元，下方我们需要美股新低或者 VIX 指数新高币价才会跌破 74 千美元。总体来看币价目前处于复活节前稳定横盘。

BTC ATM 隐含波动率

BTC波动率2周回顾(三月31日-四月14日)

  • 过去两周比特币隐含波动率随着股票市场的波动剧烈波动。币价下方看起来并没有很多人买波动率，除了一些战略上的短期保护需求。因此，随着实际波动率激增，只有短期合约的隐含波动率上扬，进而导致整个期限曲线倒挂。

  • 伴随着 VIX 指数在本周结尾逐渐安稳，以及美债找到平衡点，加密货币市场在接下来 90 天内出现更高的波动基本不太可能。因此我们预计随着币价在区间内稳定，会在两侧都看到大量的卖出。如果股市或者利率市场出现进一步的混乱，央行干预的风险会上升（包括潜在的量化宽松），这些尾部风险可能会再次推高加密货币的波动率。

BTC 偏度/峰度

BTC波动率2周回顾(三月31日-四月14日)

  • 随着 VIX 每次上涨或者美股下跌，偏度的价格激烈地偏向币价下方。因此当前比特币币价和标普指数保持相当高的相关性，同时比特币的币价对波动率相关性和标普指数也如出一辙。在四月到期日之外偏度的下斜没那么明显，因此市场上并没有非常大的结构性下行对冲需求，但我们确实也在市场上看到了一些六月 60-70 千美元看跌期权的买家。

  • 峰度以基本不变结束本周，尽管隐含波动率的波动相当剧烈，以及币价与偏度的高度相关性（币价下跌时偏度极度下跌，币价回归时偏度回归）。总体看最近币价多在局部波动，同时相对稳定在 74-90 千美元的中期区间内，因此市场对买翼侧不是很感兴趣。结构性来看我们仍然认为翼侧的价格过低，基于相当波动的波动率以及现货对偏度的动态表现。

祝你下周好运！

BTC波动率2周回顾(三月31日-四月14日)

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What is $BITCOIN

DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN): A Comprehensive Analysis Introduction to DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a blockchain-based project operating on the Solana network, which aims to combine the characteristics of traditional precious metals with the innovation of decentralized technologies. While it shares a name with Bitcoin, often referred to as “digital gold” due to its perception as a store of value, DIGITAL GOLD is a separate token designed to create a unique ecosystem within the Web3 landscape. Its goal is to position itself as a viable alternative digital asset, although specifics regarding its applications and functionalities are still developing. What is DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a cryptocurrency token explicitly designed for use on the Solana blockchain. In contrast to Bitcoin, which provides a widely recognized value storage role, this token appears to focus on broader applications and characteristics. Notable aspects include: Blockchain Infrastructure: The token is built on the Solana blockchain, known for its capacity to handle high-speed and low-cost transactions. Supply Dynamics: DIGITAL GOLD has a maximum supply capped at 100 quadrillion tokens (100P $BITCOIN), although details regarding its circulating supply are currently undisclosed. Utility: While precise functionalities are not explicitly outlined, there are indications that the token could be utilized for various applications, potentially involving decentralized applications (dApps) or asset tokenization strategies. Who is the Creator of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? At present, the identity of the creators and development team behind DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) remains unknown. This situation is typical among many innovative projects within the blockchain space, particularly those aligning with decentralized finance and meme coin phenomena. While such anonymity may foster a community-driven culture, it intensifies concerns about governance and accountability. Who are the Investors of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? The available information indicates that DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) does not have any known institutional backers or prominent venture capital investments. The project seems to operate on a peer-to-peer model focused on community support and adoption rather than traditional funding routes. Its activity and liquidity are primarily situated on decentralized exchanges (DEXs), such as PumpSwap, rather than established centralized trading platforms, further highlighting its grassroots approach. How DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) Works The operational mechanics of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) can be elaborated on based on its blockchain design and network attributes: Consensus Mechanism: By leveraging Solana’s unique proof-of-history (PoH) combined with a proof-of-stake (PoS) model, the project ensures efficient transaction validation contributing to the network's high performance. Tokenomics: While specific deflationary mechanisms have not been extensively detailed, the vast maximum token supply implies that it may cater to microtransactions or niche use cases that are still to be defined. Interoperability: There exists the potential for integration with Solana’s broader ecosystem, including various decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms. However, the details regarding specific integrations remain unspecified. Timeline of Key Events Here is a timeline that highlights significant milestones concerning DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN): 2023: The initial deployment of the token occurs on the Solana blockchain, marked by its contract address. 2024: DIGITAL GOLD gains visibility as it becomes available for trading on decentralized exchanges like PumpSwap, allowing users to trade it against SOL. 2025: The project witnesses sporadic trading activity and potential interest in community-led engagements, although no noteworthy partnerships or technical advancements have been documented as of yet. Critical Analysis Strengths Scalability: The underlying Solana infrastructure supports high transaction volumes, which could enhance the utility of $BITCOIN in various transaction scenarios. Accessibility: The potential low trading price per token could attract retail investors, facilitating wider participation due to fractional ownership opportunities. 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Note: This report encompasses synthesised information available as of October 2023, and developments may have transpired beyond the research period.

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What is $BITCOIN

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