Не ждите быстрого роста BTC: Ки Ён Джу видит 6-месячную медвежью тенденцию в данных

cryptonews.ruPublished on 2025-03-07Last updated on 2025-04-07

  • Реализованная капитализация растет, а цены остаются на прежнем уровне, что свидетельствует о продолжающемся медвежьем давлении на рынке.
  • High sell pressure limits price gains despite substantial capital inflows.
  • Исторические тенденции демонстрируют сокращение медвежьих циклов и повышение долгосрочной устойчивости рынка.

Генеральный директор CryptoQuant Ки Ён Джу предупреждает, что в ближайшие месяцы биткоин может столкнуться с длительным медвежьим давлением, указывая на определенные сигналы в цепочке, даже несмотря на то, что капитал продолжает поступать в актив. Он предупреждает, что рыночные данные показывают отсутствие положительного ценового импульса, несмотря на эти притоки, что исторически связано с медвежьими циклами криптовалют.

#Bitcoin bull cycle is over — here’s why.

There’s a concept in on-chain data called Realized Cap. It works like this: when BTC enters a blockchain wallet, it's considered a "buy," and when it leaves, it's treated as a "sell." Using this idea, we can estimate an average cost… pic.twitter.com/xDHRin8N1K

— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) April 5, 2025

Цзюй указал на растущий разрыв между Реализованной капитализацией и Рыночной капитализацией как на основной индикатор. Реализованная капитализация измеряет общий капитал, инвестированный в биткоин, на основе фактических транзакций в цепочке. Рыночная капитализация, наоборот, представляет собой просто текущую цену, умноженную на циркулирующее предложение, на которое сильно влияет биржевая торговля.

Цзюй объясняет, что когда реализованная капитализация растет, а рыночная капитализация остается неизменной или падает, это сигнализирует о том, что новые деньги, поступающие в сеть, поглощаются существующим давлением продаж, что предотвращает рост цен.

По теме: Поиск пола: вот ключевые уровни поддержки BTC/ETH после падения

Как долго может длиться эта медвежья фаза?

Исторически подобные расхождения между реализованной и рыночной капитализацией предшествовали затяжным медвежьим рынкам.

На основе этих предыдущих циклов Цзюй оценил, что разворот рынка может занять минимум шесть месяцев, если эта модель сохранится, предполагая, что краткосрочное восстановление цен остается маловероятным. Он отметил, что среды, в которых большие притоки или высокие объемы торговли (гипотетически, даже вблизи уровней вроде 100 000 долларов) не могут поднять цены, явно указывают на базовое давление продаж, доминирующее над спросом.

Что говорят долгосрочные данные об устойчивости?

Предоставляя более широкий контекст, Цзюй также сослался на долгосрочный график CryptoQuant, отслеживающий рыночную капитализацию биткоина с 2012 года. Этот график показывает чередование бычьих и медвежьих фаз, причем бычьи циклы исторически удлиняются и способствуют общему росту. Хотя зона медвежьих настроений появилась в конце 2022 года, ее интенсивность, по-видимому, уменьшилась к 2025 году по сравнению с предыдущими циклами.

Источник: CryptoQuant

По теме: Аналитик CryptoQuant говорит, что биткоин, скорее всего, консолидируется перед следующим ростом

График подтверждает, что рыночная капитализация Bitcoin превысила $1 трлн в 2024 году и в значительной степени сохранила этот уровень, несмотря на недавние коррекции. Хотя медвежьи фазы случаются, они кажутся короче и менее разрушительными в течение жизненного цикла Bitcoin, что предполагает долгосрочную устойчивость.

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