以太坊OG怒批「ETH困境」:基金会需直面四大战略失误,曾坐拥全球最强算力却错失良机

marsbitPublished on 2025-04-02Last updated on 2025-04-03

以太坊与比特币的比值(ETH/BTC)创下近五年内的最低点 0.02193,引发以太坊支持者以及投资者低气压,而以太坊创办人「灵魂人物」——Vitalik 以及基金会的近期举动也引起社群不满,近期机构也纷纷看衰以太坊在有限的周期内很难看到有新的突破。

这个创造了智能合约一词的伟大公链,开创了自比特币区块链技术从零到一之后,从一到多,并且与现实金融接续的可能,如今为何会衰败到今天的地步,也是以太坊社群近期讨论的重点。而在一些早期就存在的以太坊技术讨论群中,动区接触了一位宣称自 2016 年加入以太坊开发社群、2021 年退出的老 OG(化名为逆鳞之龙),在私人社群中细谈以太坊发展至今的重大决策与影响。本文将整合逆鳞之龙提到的以太坊自 2021 年后做出的重大改革与决策,以及关键失败点,而动区则会补充当时的故事细节作为完整故事的补充。


以太坊黄金年代:2021 年初 


谈到以太坊最辉煌的年代,莫过于 DeFi Summer 后的 2021 年初,不仅开始有「链上侦探」的角色出现,开始解决闪电贷,更有许多新的代币创新,如 NFT、流动性碎片化,甚至讨论固定链上收益的「耕种」名词也有许多工具,更有着第一代的链上杠杆与合约协议出现,那是一个天才辈出、链上创新不断的时代。


其实,我职业生涯中遇到过收益最高的投资标的,除了比特币与以太坊本身以外,都集中在 2020-2021 年的项目,尤其是 2021 年,那应该是最多项目存活下来的年代。像是以太坊、BNB、SOL 这些基础建设的现金估值破数亿美元,很多都是那时开创的。


相比 2020 年很多项目的「野鸡感」与「疯子」氛围,2021 年上半年,许多创办人不仅是真的天才,他们还知道市场需要什么样的产品,怎么活下去。而 2021 年末与 2022 年初,很多项目明显是来割韭菜的。所以我个人认为,2021 年中是一个不同时代的分水岭。通常在 2021 年后或者 2022 年后才进圈的人,已经是另一个氛围了。


EIP-1559 带起「ETH 通缩论」


过去以太坊如此辉煌的年代,是从什么时候开始走下坡的呢?我们在讨论中与群主沟通,在老 OG 群发起投票,共有 117 人投票,其中 59 票认为,影响以太坊最大的决策与时刻,是在 2021 年中的 EIP-1559 提案前后。


以太坊社群开始出现分裂与斗争,当时也造成了小规模的以太坊人才出走。但社群讨论中认为,影响最重要的并非这个提案的内容本身 EIP-1559,而是围绕着这个提案的「通缩资产」思想,直到现在还严重影响了以太坊的整体发展。


当时,以太坊的许多开发者根本赚不到钱,直到 DeFi Summer,交易费用上涨,让 PoW 矿工开始赚钱了,这可能让以太坊开发者心态上有些不平衡。我自己当时也有一点这种感觉。有同事发现,某几位交易者疑似把矿池挖到的额外手续费拿来交易,又垫高了 Gas Fee。这在核心开发者圈子里被传播为一种「交易堵塞永动机」思想,于是建议用 EIP-1559 来烧掉这些费用。当然,这个提案当时引发了非常多争议,例如有人认为这种思想与实际情况脱节。但最终,在社群两派的对抗下,那些「进步派」取得了胜利。


EIP-1559 的影响非常深远,至今仍然有后遗症。当时,许多核心开发者认为「PoS」合并可以在 2021 年完成。为了推动 EIP-1559 通过以及未来的 PoS 进步,他们突然提出了一个「通缩资产」叙事口号。因此,当时有非常多的人和文章都在宣扬 PoS 的好处,包括与以太坊亲近的媒体社群 Bankless。在当时的环境下,似乎只有赶上这班车,才不会被时代淘汰。


开发者们认为,只要持有以太坊并维护它,就能领取利息,而且 ETH 价格还会增长,以太坊开发者当时都认为,他们的职业生涯非常光明。但现在回头看,这个大饼画得有点过头了。


社群泛政治化,寻求「以太坊价值」正统性 


逆鳞之龙在社群中谈及 EIP-1559 带来的「通缩资产」思想其实非常致命。这不仅与当初以太坊与以太坊经典分裂的理念背道而驰,也透露了以太坊核心开发者在政治上寻求与比特币「数字黄金」抗衡的新口号。然而,这样的提案与政治理想,在现实中却带来了巨大的副作用。


更重要的是,EIP-1559 的争议催生了一种社群风气:寻找「以太坊价值」,非我族类就要排除。这让以太坊陷入了一个充满政治利益博弈的氛围。


核心开发者根本没想到,以太坊今天会如此少人使用……现在所有指标、交易量、Gwei 费用都创下近年来新低,而「通缩资产」带来的涨幅也几乎完全回吐。纵观其他因素,我认为以太坊可能还会继续低迷一段时间。


完美错过 AI 时代红利 


在以太坊完成合并(Merge)到 PoS 之后,也经历了几次巨大的升级,包括上海升级、Dencun 升级。但这些升级对以太坊的用户来说真的有感吗?在讨论群中,我们发起了一次投票,117 人中,只有 3 人认为以太坊有进步,102 人认为完全没有进步,12 人表示不清楚。


时间回到 2022 年 Merge 前夕,当时有多少艺术家进军 NFT 产业,抱怨以太坊的不环保?有多少企业正在寻求 DeFi 与现实金融的结合与实验沙盒,却担忧不符合国际 ESG 潮流?但这些追求的东西,如今与 AI 时代完全脱节了。


曾经以太坊拥有全球最大的计算算力,如果能坚持到 AI 时代,PoW 层可转移算力用于有效计算,那么现在的以太坊或许是世界最重要的平台。试想一个画面,Vitalik 是一个能与黄仁勋同台的创办人,他想要推动的去中心化理想,难道会比现在更难实现吗?


但事实是,以太坊在时代选择上硬生生开了倒车。反观比特币,矿企成为 AI 服务器最喜欢的算力配置场,即使比特币挖矿利润有限,矿企股票与收益依然随 AI 暴涨。而以太坊,却因政治化错失了这一切。


结论:未来的以太坊预测 


未来,以太坊与比特币的价值差距可能会持续拉大,并且以太坊可能会经历一波剧烈的回调。以太坊的品牌影响力已经不如以往,企业即使使用以太坊,创造的价值也不会体现在 ETH 本身,而是体现在企业的代币或股票上。


ETH/BTC 可能会继续下探很长一段时间,哪怕有大量企业进驻以太坊协议,也不会成为 ETH 的利好,因为「通缩资产」叙事已经破灭……


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