Matrixport 投研:全球流动性上升可能不再推动 BTC 价格上涨

链捕手Published on 2025-03-29Last updated on 2025-03-29

随着全球经济逐步复苏,流动性指标普遍出现反弹,全球流动性(特别是 28 家中央银行的总货币供应量)与 BTC 的价格涨幅密切相关,但这一关系可能正在逐渐失效。

全球流动性与 BTC 价格的关系逐渐减弱

过去,当美联储等主要央行增加货币供应量时,这些新增资金通过购买政府债券等资产流入金融系统,最终流向更广泛的经济,部分进入加密货币市场,推动 BTC 价格上涨。理论上,流动性增加意味着资金供给充裕,能支持风险资产价格,尤其是 BTC 。然而,当前的市场表现表明,全球流动性的上涨未能如预期那样直接推动 BTC 价格继续攀升。

流动性指标的滞后效应引发质疑

虽然货币供应增长与 BTC 价格之间的滞后效应一度被认为是可靠的预测指标,但这种“13 周”的滞后期并没有强有力的理论支撑。 BTC 交易者常通过观察全球流动性图表来预测价格走势,假设流动性激增会直接带来价格上涨。然而,这一假设存在一定的问题。 BTC 与全球流动性这两个时间序列都有趋势性变化(非平稳),这可能导致相关性分析出现误差,给投资者带来误导。

进一步分析发现, BTC 价格和全球流动性(如 M2)之间的比较具有误导性。毕竟, BTC 和全球流动性的规模差异巨大,将二者进行直接对比不仅没有数学依据,还可能误导市场预期。

BTC 与科技股的关系未如预期般增强

在过去的七年中, BTC 与美国股市(如纳斯达克)的相关性虽然偶尔飙升,但始终未达到一个稳定的高水平。即使推出了 BTC ETF (交易所交易基金),这一相关性仍远低于 COVID 期间达到的 60% 水平。 BTC 在市场中仍然更多是按其自身规律交易,而非作为其他风险资产(如美国科技股)的代理。因此,过度依赖全球流动性和其他宏观指标来预测 BTC 走势的有效性正在减弱。

缺乏明确催化剂,需寻找加密货币原生推动因素

BTC 的未来走势仍需依赖明确的市场催化剂。在缺乏外部推动的情况下, BTC 市场可能仍会继续盘整,全球流动性上升不再是推动价格上涨的决定性因素。对加密市场感兴趣的投资者应更关注加密原生的驱动因素,例如加密政策的变化、行业内的技术革新或支持加密货币的政治领导层,这些可能比单纯依赖全球流动性指标更能影响 BTC 的价格走势。

免责声明:市场有风险,投资需谨慎。本文不构成投资建议。数字资产交易可能具有极大的风险和不稳定性。投资决策应在仔细考虑个人情况并咨询金融专业人士后做出。Matrixport 不对基于本内容所提供信息的任何投资决策负责。

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591 Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

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