BTC波动率周回顾(三月10日-三月17日)

Odaily星球日报Published on 2025-03-19Last updated on 2025-03-19

Abstract

比特币现货价格在过去一周持续下跌,但随着币价稳定到80-85千美元区间内,我们终于看到实际波动率开始降低回归。值得注意的是币价上周创下了近期的低点,市场随后几天里在密切关注币价动向,试图猜测下一次大波动是走涨还是走跌。

BTC波动率周回顾(三月10日-三月17日)

关键指标:(三月 10 日 下午四点-> 三月 17 日 下午四点 香港时间)

  • BTC 对 USD 上涨 1.5% ( 82.3 千美元 -> 83.5 千美元),ETH 对 USD 下跌 8.2% ( 2.07 -> 1.9 千美元)

BTC 对 USD 现货技术指标一览

BTC波动率周回顾(三月10日-三月17日)

  • 比特币现货价格在过去一周持续下跌,但随着币价稳定到 80-85 千美元区间内,我们终于看到实际波动率开始降低回归。值得注意的是币价上周创下了近期的低点,市场随后几天里在密切关注币价动向,试图猜测下一次大波动是走涨还是走跌。考虑到我们经历了较长时间的高波动周期,我们认为币价接下来会进行一些微调和稳定,预期接下来一周左右支撑位在 78-80 千美元,最近的阻力位在 85-86 千美元,再往上是 89.5-92 千美元。

  • 如果币价跌破 78-80 千美元,市场可能会重新回到高波动区间。相反如果突破 92 千美元我们会重新开始试探 98-100 千美元这个更加具有意义的长期阻力位。我们对比特币的中期走势持乐观态度,但仍在等待更多证实修正周期结束的迹象。

市场主题

  • 又是波动相当剧烈的一周。标普 500 指数在持续的股票基金多空平衡以及去杠杆下创下新低。传言称多项资产均值发生了巨大的回撤,但在叙事层面上并没有什么新鲜事可以支撑这一消息。市场开始对来来回回的关税政策感到麻木,最终这只是一次早该进行的修正以及去杠杆,但多年以来市场一直乐观地忽视了这一风险。结构上来看波动逐渐在本周期中显现出来,VIX(恐慌指数)不大可能会在接下来的几个月内维持在十几的水平。当然中间也会穿插平静和稳固的时期。

  • 至于加密货币,上周比特币数次跌破 8 万美元,市场继续清理余量仓位。与此同时以太坊跌破了 2 千美元的关键支撑,自此以后未能夺回上涨势头。周内比特币币价相比标普 500 和纳斯达克指数表现更好,但在纽约时段仍然较为沉重,之后在亚盘时段触底反弹。然而总体来说目前各类市场的头寸都更加干净,我们认为跨资产上的高相关性不会再继续。只有在标普指数出现实质性的下跌后比特币才会跌出新低。

BTC 隐含波动率

BTC波动率周回顾(三月10日-三月17日)

  • 周一纽约时段标普指数的下降导致美股隐含波动率激增,同时拉高比特币的隐含波动率,在本周随后的时间内大幅下降。实际波动率也在本周逐步降低,单周实际波动率在近几周内首次跌破 50 点变成 40 出头,隐含波动率的降低在短期到期日中更加显著,而在曲线远端小幅降低。6 月底的到期日上出现卖压,因为中期玩家在清理结构性的买涨仓位。

  • 从目前的情况来看我们预期市场会继续稳定,等待新的催化剂,因此实际波动率将保持相对平稳。4 月 4 日的到期日会引起更多关注,因为特朗普会在 4 月 2 日宣布下一轮的关税措施,在美股指数和外汇的波动率曲面上已经定出了相当高的溢价。

BTC 偏度/峰度

BTC波动率周回顾(三月10日-三月17日)

  • 本周在短期到期日上偏度从激烈地偏向下行恢复。因为上周日到周一的清算后市场下方头寸非常干净,下一次币价回调时不会有太多仓位引发清算。在期限结构远端,偏度的价格保持相对稳定,因为结构上来看中长期玩家对币价下方并不感兴趣。

  • 峰度本周以基本不变结束。但周内随着隐含波动率的变化大幅波动。尽管我们认为持有多头峰度仍然不错,但短期上由于币价在局限的区间内波动,多头峰度可能会亏在 Theta 上。因此我们更加认可在曲线远端持有多头峰度,寻求叙事的改变时币价会突破大选以后的 70-105 千美元区间。

祝大家本周好运!

BTC波动率周回顾(三月10日-三月17日)

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603 Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

What is $BITCOIN

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