散户做空 ETH——它是否会出现空头挤压?

mediumPublished on 2025-02-25Last updated on 2025-02-25

Abstract

以太坊(ETH)的散户空头头寸正在上升,而长期头寸则呈下降趋势。空头比例已经超过30%,而多头比例已跌破75%。

尽管MACD确认看涨交叉,但Binance仍在大量抛售以太坊及其他加密货币。

以太坊(ETH)的散户空头头寸正在上升,而长期头寸则呈下降趋势。空头比例已经超过30%,而多头比例已跌破75%。

这一变化伴随着开放兴趣(OI)的增加,表明零售投资者正在押注以太坊价格下跌。

截至目前,ETH价格已突破$2,775,但如果看空情绪持续,ETH可能会回调至$2,700。

另一方面,如果OI持续上升,而空头头寸遭遇挤压,ETH可能突破$2,825并向更高的价位挑战。随着多头头寸减少,这可能表明投资者对以太坊短期增长潜力的担忧。

如果这一趋势持续,ETH可能会测试更低的支撑位。反之,如果市场情绪发生变化,且多头头寸开始增加,我们可能会看到ETH反弹至$2,800或更高。

Binance继续大量抛售以太坊

投资者的情绪与Binance一致,后者一直在将大量以太坊转移到中心化交易所桥接和做市商账户。这些转账金额从1,003个ETH(价值279万美元)到1,520个ETH(价值425万美元)不等。

这种高频的活动,包括大规模资金流入市场做市商和交易所,可能表明Binance在为市场提供流动性,或可能因应市场情况减少其持有量。

这种行为对以太坊价格的潜在影响复杂。

一方面,如果这些转账是为了满足交易所日益增长的需求或做市目的,可能会因流动性和交易量增加而稳定或甚至推高ETH价格。

另一方面,如果这是Binance在清算其持仓,市场上的供应增加可能会导致价格下跌。

这意味着,来自交易所的进一步卖压可能会确认看空趋势,或者如果足够的买盘需求出现,可能会导致看涨反转。

MACD确认看涨交叉

然而,以太坊的价格走势显示出看涨信号,MACD已经突破其信号线。

这一看涨交叉信号,加上在Bybit被黑客攻击后,以太坊在$2,650附近的支撑位稳定,暗示着价格可能会出现上行走势。

紧随其后的目标可能是近期的$3,000阻力位。如果以太坊突破这一障碍,下一重要的关口可能是$4,000及更高。

相反,如果看涨动能减弱并未能维持,ETH可能会重新测试$2,650的支撑位。

跌破这一支撑位可能会导致进一步下行,下一支撑位在$2,490附近。

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