BTC横盘、山寨新低，牛市结束了吗？

marsbitPublished on 2025-02-07Last updated on 2026-07-07

Trump 上台之后对加密货币市场没有显著的政策面的促进作用，除了家族 WLFI 基金不停地买币，还些许传出丑闻，与项目方「可能有密谋做市关系」；Trump 儿子喊单买入 ETH，基金「疑似偷偷割肉」ETH。Trump 政府向 Sec 施压降息也没有起到作用，成立的加密货币委员会等政府机构，也都是雷声大雨点小。

反而是 Trump 政府的宏观经济强美元弱美股的政策对加密货币产生了巨大冲击，对墨西哥、加拿大加征 25% 关税然后又推迟取消的左右横跳让加密货币市场动荡不堪，更加致命的是，当 BTC 反弹的时候，山寨币「跟跌不跟涨」，大部分的山寨币创出了近两年新低。

很多人都在怀疑：牛市还在吗？在这轮周期中，当前的现状 Trump 同名 meme 币产生暴富神话 Trump 上台呼唤「永恒大牛」，不禁想起上轮牛市中以 SHIB 的暴富神话和 Coinbase 上市，集体呼喊「永恒牛市」结束，刻舟求剑来说似乎一般无二。牛市真的还在吗？山寨还有「解套之日」吗，让我们看看交易员的看法。

市场

技术分析

@Xbt886

市场


山寨币的流动性目前并没有回归，更多山寨币的流动性退出了选择进入 BTC 的流动性。


市场


之前认可的两种可能的路径，目前看来已经走了第二种。


@YSI_crypto

市场


92,000 美元附近，就是我图中画的绿色区域。这里属于整个箱体震荡中的箱体下边界，价格在这里反弹的话，可以作为进场点，跌破即止损。目前这里属于箱体中间，多空都很难受，等待合适的入场机会。


@Patrade_Buer

市场


BTC 已经完成了掠夺 eqh。空头请注意你的仓位，多头关注回踩买入机会。


@CryptosLaowai

比特币处于震荡行情。市场逻辑是寻找流动性：那里最多人止损+爆仓去哪里，比特币日线收了两个长腿十字星，下周涨的可能性加大了，小周期还有最后一次下探的可能性，跌到 94600 左右，然后如果收回 95600+，那么拉升行情就要开始了，下周如果拉升，目标最低 100500，最高 103000。


市场


数据分析

@Andre_Dragosch

2024 年以来最大的 BTC 移出交易所的状况刚刚发生了，超过 17000 个 BTC 离开了交易所，其中 15000 个是从 CoinBase 中被移出，大量的巨鲸在这里购买底部筹码。


市场


@Phyrex_Ni

交易所的存量 BTC 确实在价格跌破 100,000 美元后，断崖式下跌，已经快达到近 6 年的最低点了，横跨了两个后期，这说明更多的投资者在买入后选择持币观望。

市场


宏观分析

@Phyrex_Ni

刚刚公布了非农数据。和预期的基本一样，失业率少许下降回到了 4%，低于前值，这个数据不是很好，说明目前的劳动力市场仍然很强劲，非农就业人数下浮的还是挺大的，大幅低于预期，这个数据倒还是可以，工资增速也在提升，总体来说整个劳动力市场并没有明显的降温，这可能并不符合部分美联储官员的期望。但也说明了美国经济的强劲。

三月降息的可能几乎是不存在了，当然本来就没有，现在的劳动力数据更是会消减三月的降息概率，这本身到是在市场的预期之内，三月先看点阵图吧，说实话现在的宏观数据对市场的帮助实在是有限。

毕竟鲍威尔自己都说了，劳动力市场的关注不是很大了，还是多看看通胀数据吧，尤其是住房通胀。总的来说今天的这份劳动力数据利好经济，但不利于美联储增加降息次数。


市场


数据公布后美联储的卡什卡利发表了讲话，主要的内容和鲍威尔的观点是一样的，「如果看到良好的通胀数据，且劳动力市场保持强劲，那么这将促使我支持进一步降息。」有意思的是，这个观点和昨天发言的洛根是完全不同的，认为劳动力市场强劲是件好事。

而通胀的下降主要是看住房通胀，卡什卡利说「如果通胀下行，我看不出为什么要维持利率不变。」并预计今年通胀将继续下降，美联储的降息也会温和进行。

基本上给劳动力数据定性了，尤其是劳动力数据是利好于经济，距离衰退又远了一步。


@MaoShu_CN

首先时隔一周时间，BTC 市值基本保持不变，但是市场以及 #ETH 山寨出现了的缩水，通过占比变化清晰发现，BTC 占比大幅度吸血市场，目前占比已经突破 58% 更加接近 59%，反观 ETH 占比直接跌破 10%，惨不忍睹。

交易量方面简单来看，除了 BTC 依旧保持一定的活性，ETH 山寨基本活跃度已经继续走低，情绪较差。


市场


资金方面出现大量增幅，本周资金增加 89 亿，场内稳定币总量 2315 亿美金，

USDT: 官网显示目前市值 1413.55 亿，对比上周日增加 19.51 亿，亚欧市场本周回复流入并且出现了增幅流入的情况。

USDC: 数据网址显示资金增加 28.17 亿，美区资金同样保持了增量流入。

就业数据公布后 BTC 伴随着美股开启反弹突破，不过通胀预期走引发风险市场下跌，本周恐怕要以下跌收场，目前价格依旧处于弱势区！

今晚的就业数据公布之后，虽然数据不是利好，但是介于本周的下跌走势基本出清利空走势，只要不是利空，都会让市场再次反弹，

数据公布之后盘面也是如此展现，短期 BTC 价格突破了 1 小时/4 小时区间。

不过随即而来密歇根大学通胀预期引发风险市场的通胀担忧，导致美股下跌，BTC 跟跌，直接打断了 BTC 的反弹上涨势头，导致目前 BTC 价格依旧处于弱势区。


@CryptoPainter_X

失业率下降，非农小于预期，交易员押注的恢复降息节点目前卡在今年 6 月份，而且看起来还不是很稳固，等于说是第 1~2 季度都不用等降息了，最早也要等到 6 月中旬的议息会议了。


市场

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Notable aspects include: Blockchain Infrastructure: The token is built on the Solana blockchain, known for its capacity to handle high-speed and low-cost transactions. Supply Dynamics: DIGITAL GOLD has a maximum supply capped at 100 quadrillion tokens (100P $BITCOIN), although details regarding its circulating supply are currently undisclosed. Utility: While precise functionalities are not explicitly outlined, there are indications that the token could be utilized for various applications, potentially involving decentralized applications (dApps) or asset tokenization strategies. Who is the Creator of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? At present, the identity of the creators and development team behind DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) remains unknown. This situation is typical among many innovative projects within the blockchain space, particularly those aligning with decentralized finance and meme coin phenomena. While such anonymity may foster a community-driven culture, it intensifies concerns about governance and accountability. Who are the Investors of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? The available information indicates that DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) does not have any known institutional backers or prominent venture capital investments. The project seems to operate on a peer-to-peer model focused on community support and adoption rather than traditional funding routes. Its activity and liquidity are primarily situated on decentralized exchanges (DEXs), such as PumpSwap, rather than established centralized trading platforms, further highlighting its grassroots approach. 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What is $BITCOIN

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