BTC波动率周回顾（1月20日-27日）

Odaily星球日报Published on 2025-01-28Last updated on 2025-01-28

Abstract

BTC 对 USD 的价格在特朗普就职典礼前飙升，但在相当波动的一周后，周五结算时基本保持不变。随后在平静的周末后，周一晨时被激烈抛售，似乎与低迷的美盘科技股相关。最终币价在 98-100 千美元的支撑区间试探。如果该支撑位被突破，我们可能会在一个修正走势中看到更大的偏离，而这种走势在 12 月中旬至 1 月中旬一直占据着主导地位。

BTC波动率周回顾（1月20日-27日）

关键指标：（1 月 20 日 下午四点-> 1 月 27 日 下午四点 香港时间）

  • BTC 对 USD 下跌 7.9% ( 107.3 千美元->98.8 千美元), ETH 对 USD 下跌 9.2% ( 3.38->3.07 千美元)

BTC波动率周回顾（1月20日-27日）

  • BTC 对 USD 的价格在特朗普就职典礼前飙升，但在相当波动的一周后，周五结算时基本保持不变。随后在平静的周末后，周一晨时被激烈抛售，似乎与低迷的美盘科技股相关。最终币价在 98-100 千美元的支撑区间试探。如果该支撑位被突破，我们可能会在一个修正走势中看到更大的偏离，而这种走势在 12 月中旬至 1 月中旬一直占据着主导地位。

  • 我们的基本判断是 98 千美元的支撑位足够支持币价在接下来几周内大幅上涨，因此依然持有看涨观点。但如果币价再次被拖回 92-98 千美元的波动区间，我们需要重新进行评估。

市场主题

  • 本周所有的焦点都集中在特朗普的就职典礼和随后的行政条款上。总体而言这些条款没有什么意外之处，唯一的重大惊喜是对关税立场的缓和（尤其对中国），导致先前一致看多美元对 G 10 和人民币的观点部分消除。在“美国优先”政策的背景下，美股继续保持上涨势头。而加密货币市场在条款宣布前明显表现地过于热情，尽管有一些中期的利好消息包括进行发展加密货币为美国政府储备的工作，但我们最终还是没能突破历史高点，而是回落至波动区间内。

  • 在中国农历新年前的周末，我们有幸见证了 DeepSeek 的 R 1 模型（以及字节跳动的豆包 1.5），更加凸显了正在进行的 AI 军备竞赛，并造成美盘科技/AI 股的大规模清算，其中英伟达（NVDA）昨日一度下跌超过 15% 。这种局势是否会持续造成美股估值下降仍有待观察-但毫无疑问，对许多传统金融基金来说，这无疑是一个“痛苦的交易”，因为大家已经对“特朗普时代”的到来达成共识。但这件事很明显展示了加密货币和美股之间仍存在密切的相关性。在亚洲早盘时段流动性较弱时，比特币和以太坊下跌超 6% ，但稍晚收回了部分损失。

BTC 隐含波动率

BTC波动率周回顾（1月20日-27日）

  • 在隐含波动率上，就职典礼的事件不确定性最初占据了主导地位。涵盖特朗普演讲的当日隐含波动率最高时达到了 140 点。但在就职演讲上未有提到加密货币后，前端迅速回落。但期限结构上仍存在后续行政条款不确定性的风险溢价，尤其使得 1 月 31 日和 2 月初的到期日保持抬高。在周四，有传言称加密货币条款将在当天晚些时候签署，致使币价和波动率双双暴增，但只是昙花一现。尽管确实颁发了一些建设性的条款，但热度由于币价未能突破 106 千美元而回落，最后导致周末时，随着币价波动区间逐渐稳定以及为事件准备的看涨波动率头寸逐渐清仓，短期到期日隐含波动率持续下跌。自后本周一在 DeepSeek 消息的推动下下跌的币价再次推高隐含波动率。

  • 总体而言，本周短期到期日波动率的波动相当剧烈，其中 1 月 31 日到期日的隐含波动率以 76->58->65->50->63 的走势波动。期限结构远端，隐含波动率较为平缓下跌，因为美国储蓄政策即刻生效的尾部不确定性已经消失。但在略微偏低的隐含波动率水平上存在合理的双边交易并限制了隐含波动率的崩塌。

  • 值得一提的是除了上周一就职典礼前的激增外，实际波动率整周都在逐步下降。尽管有一些突发新闻和局部的波动，高频和小时级的实际波动率锁定在 40 刚出头的水平。哪怕考虑到本周一出现大幅波动的情况依然如此。因此我们合理猜测目前实际波动率会在 40-50 之间的水平，当前在曲面上看到的 55-60 vol 隐含波动率水平可能会下调 5-7 点。

BTC 偏度/峰度

BTC波动率周回顾（1月20日-27日）

  • 本周偏度保持相当安静。虽然市场缺乏对顶部的实质性突破，但大部分玩家仍认为加密货币行政条款在情绪上是利好的。因此理论上随着美国解冻监管允许更多的资金流入加密货币领域，在回落时市场会持续看到上涨的动力。唯一的例外是本周一早上由于美股重新定价导致的下跌修正，导致短期偏度激烈地扭转至看跌。

  • 除短期就职典礼相关的到期日外，峰度在远端相当平缓。短期上玩家们多以看涨价差或者看涨蝶式对价格上方进行交易，并对市场的峰度施加卖压。但是考虑到实际波动率的波动相当高，以及我们局部的波动区间会在 90-110 千美元期间，我们认为值得空仓区间内的行权价同时多头区间外的行权价。短期的峰度在本周一现货价格下跌时大幅抬升，主要由于市场在购买较便宜的下方行权价以保护结构性的现金多头头寸。

祝大家本周好运，假期愉快！

BTC波动率周回顾（1月20日-27日）

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DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN): A Comprehensive Analysis Introduction to DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a blockchain-based project operating on the Solana network, which aims to combine the characteristics of traditional precious metals with the innovation of decentralized technologies. While it shares a name with Bitcoin, often referred to as “digital gold” due to its perception as a store of value, DIGITAL GOLD is a separate token designed to create a unique ecosystem within the Web3 landscape. Its goal is to position itself as a viable alternative digital asset, although specifics regarding its applications and functionalities are still developing. What is DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a cryptocurrency token explicitly designed for use on the Solana blockchain. In contrast to Bitcoin, which provides a widely recognized value storage role, this token appears to focus on broader applications and characteristics. 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