道指勉强结束50年最长连跌,美光跌16%,美元再创两年最高,美债石油比特币下挫

华尔街日报Published on 2024-12-19Last updated on 2024-12-19

道指一度反弹近461点,有望结束1974年以来首次连跌十天的遭遇:

  • 美股三大指数冲高回落。标普500指数涨近1.1%后涨幅砍半。与经济周期密切相关的道指盘初涨近461点或1.1%后回吐多数涨幅。科技股居多的纳指涨近1.2%后小幅回落。

  • 行业ETF盘初普涨。区域银行ETF和银行业ETF至少涨超2.4%,金融业ETF、全球航空业ETF、网络股指数ETF、能源业ETF至少涨1.1%,半导体ETF则仍然跌超0.3%,生物科技指数ETF跌超0.8%。
  •  “科技七姐妹”普涨特斯拉一度涨近3.7%,亚马逊一度涨超2.3%,谷歌A一度涨近2.5%,Meta一度涨近2.4%。苹果一度涨超1.1%,据媒体报道,苹果与腾讯、字节初步接洽,考虑将二者AI模型嵌入在华销售的iPhone。微软一度涨近1.3%,英伟达一度涨超2.4%。
  • 芯片股涨跌不一。费城半导体指数涨超0.4%后跌超0.4%。迈威尔科技一度涨超4.6%,博通涨近2%后涨幅砍半,而美光科技一度跌超17.6%。
  • AI概念股多数走高。英伟达持股的SoundHound AI一度涨超14%,Palantir一度涨超7.1%,BigBear.ai涨超18.5%后回吐多数涨幅,甲骨文一度涨超2.7%,而C3.ai一度跌超7.8%。

  • 中概股多数上涨。纳斯达克金龙中国指数一度涨近0.7%。热门中概股中,理想汽车一度涨超4.5%,蔚来一度涨超3%,极氪一度涨超3.3%,B站一度涨超2.6%,老虎证券一度涨2.9%。
  • 量子计算概念股涨跌各异。Quantum Corporation(QMCO)一度跌超44%,Quantum Computing(QUBT)一度跌近35.3%,D-Wave Quantum(QBTS)一度跌超24.4%,霍尼韦尔(HON)盘初涨超2.9%后回吐多数涨幅。
  • 其他重点个股中:Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc.(VRTX)一度跌16%,创2020年10月份以来最差盘中表现。中期临床研究结果表明,该公司止痛药的效果并不优于安慰剂。公司将继续测试该药品。

以下为22:00以前更新内容

12月19日周四,隔夜美国股债双杀拉爆亚太股市,欧股低开低走,美股盘前小幅上涨,油、金、比特币重挫,美元飙升至两年来高位施压全球市场,日元跌破157关口,韩元跌出15年新低。

隔夜,美联储暗示放缓降息步伐,鲍威尔表示,美联储正处于“进程的新阶段”,借贷成本接近中性利率。点阵图显示,美联储预计2025年仅降息2次25bp,比9月点阵图少两次,比市场对点阵图的普遍预期还少一次。

北京时间今晚20:00,英国央行公布最新利率决议;美国经济分析局将于21:30公布三季度GDP和核心PCE物价指数。

美股三大期指盘前上涨

道指期货涨0.29%,标普500指数期货涨0.37%,纳斯达克100指数期货涨0.46%,罗素2000指数期货涨0.47%。

科技股普涨。特斯拉涨超3%,Meta涨超1%,英伟达涨超2%。

由于公司对下个财季的指引仅“符合市场预期”远远不够,美光科技延续跌势,现跌逾14%。

美联储鹰派施压下,欧股集体低开,亚太股市普跌

欧洲斯托克50指数开盘跌1.4%,德国DAX指数跌1%,英国富时100指数跌1.1%,法国CAC 40指数跌1.2%。

今日亚太股市普跌,日、韩、印三国股市集体下挫。

截至收盘,日经225收跌0.87%,韩国KOSPI综指收跌1.87%。印度NIFTY 50指数和SENSEX指数均跌逾1%,澳大利亚股指一度跌2%创三个月最大跌幅,澳大利亚债券收益率上涨,

IG驻悉尼分析师Tony Sycamore表示:

美债收益率上升和美元飙升的双重影响,应该会导致亚洲股市开盘下跌1.5-2%,而日元走弱将为抑制日经指数的下跌提供缓冲。

美元创出两年新高,非美货币大跌,日元跌破157

美元兑其他货币周三上涨,触及两年来最高水平。

衡量美元对六种货币的美元指数一度升至108.260,创下2022年11月以来的最高水平,最新涨至108.16。

离岸人民币兑美元汇率为7.321,稳定在13个月低点附近。

欧元兑美元日内涨幅达0.5%,报1.0403。

日本央行宣布12月继续推迟加息该行行长植田和男午后发言称经济、通胀仍具较高不确定性,日元加速跌势,日内接连跌破155、156、157关口,日内跌幅达1.4%。

有分析表示,日元跌破关键水平可能引发日本当局口头干预,并放大日央行加息的压力。

韩元兑美元跌1.5%至1美元兑1460.2韩元,创2009年3月份以来最低水平。

英国央行预计也将维持利率不变,美联储做出决定后,英镑兑欧元和美元均小幅走低。英镑跌至三周低点。

富国银行高级经济学家迈克·普格利斯表示,自特朗普上个月赢得大选以来,美元一直在上涨,因为人们预期关税将引发新一轮通胀,但美联储周三的决定“火上浇油”。

隔夜美国股债双杀

隔夜,美国国债收益率全线走高,对政策敏感的两年期国债收益率和10年期国债收益率均上涨逾10个基点,并自5月份以来首次收于4.5%上方。

标普500指数遭遇8月份以来的最大单日跌幅,创下2001年以来美联储决议公布当日的最大跌幅。纳斯达克100 指数下跌3.6%,为今年第二糟糕的单日跌幅,也是自7月份以来的最大跌幅。

富兰克林邓普顿投资解决方案高级副总裁戈克曼称,鲍威尔是“披着鸽派外衣的鹰派”。

尽管他淡化了近期通胀放缓的现象,同时夸耀经济增长势头强劲,但2025 年两次降息的预测是必要的,因为政策必须保持限制性。

高盛惠特尼·沃森预计,美联储将在1月份避免降息,并在 3 月份恢复宽松政策。

比特币延续跌势,黄金小幅回升

隔夜鲍威尔表示美联储无意参与任何政府持有全球最大加密货币的行动后,比特币一度大跌5%,现延续跌势跌逾2%。

隔夜黄金价格再次受到重击并跌破100日均线,现涨超1%,报2620.17美元/盎司。

原油价格因美联储鹰派立场而下滑,WTI原油价格回落至70美元附近。

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