2024 加密融资新格局：基建之外，DePIN 与消费应用成黑马

链捕手Published on 2024-12-17Last updated on 2024-12-17

原标题：《Crypto VC Deal Flow | 2024 Data Insights》

作者：Tiffany Monteverde

编译：深潮TechFlow

 

过去两年多来，我一直致力于帮助风投 (VC) 寻找优质交易流，并协助初创公司完成融资。从 2023 年初开始，我开始系统地整理风投和初创公司融资的相关数据。最初，这只是一个个人管理工具，我并未深入分析，因为实时与初创公司和风投的互动已经让我对市场有了直观的了解。

然而，经过 2024 年对超过 1000 家初创公司的审阅，我收集了大量有价值的数据。而借助 Notion 新增的图表功能，我得以将这些数据可视化，并回顾这一年的市场趋势。

热门领域

在所有审阅的融资交易中，基础设施 (Infrastructure) 依然是最受欢迎的融资领域，其次是去中心化金融 (DeFi)。与 2023 年相比，数据分析和工具 (Data Analytics and Tooling) 的融资热度显著下降，而 DePIN (去中心化的物理基础设施网络)、游戏 (Gaming) 和面向消费者的应用程序今年则表现出强劲增长。

这种变化主要受到市场情绪的驱动。当市场回暖、链上活动激增时，面向消费者的应用往往会吸引更多关注。

此外，还需注意，不同领域的启动成本差异较大。例如，基础设施和 DeFi 项目往往需要更高的资金投入，不仅包括技术开发和流动性引导资金，还涉及市场营销和业务拓展等费用，尤其是在代币生成事件 (TGE) 之前，需要额外的成本来激发市场兴趣并建立强大的社区支持。

需要强调的是，并非所有初创公司都适合寻求风投融资（更多内容请参见此处）。如今，随着基础设施工具的不断完善，初创公司可以更轻松地推出原型，并通过迭代优化进行测试。这种方法在 Telegram 小程序中尤为流行（稍后会进一步讨论）。

顶级子领域

在第一季度 BTC 价格上涨的推动下，投资重点仍集中在基础设施领域，同时比特币生态系统 (Bitcoin Ecosystem) 也吸引了更多关注。对特定用例（如 Staking、跨链流动性等）的需求增加，使得这一领域的初创公司数量在第二季度显著增长。这种趋势反映了风投资金关注的后续效应。

值得一提的是，市场价格（如 BTC）往往与风投资本的部署呈现一定的相关性，而这又进一步影响了初创公司的融资数量和估值（稍后会详细探讨）。

重复出现的模式

在特定领域中，交易流的增加与风投资金的部署方向密切相关，这种模式一再出现。例如，Telegram/TON 生态系统上的交易数量在 Q3 显著增长，这与 Pantera 在 5 月宣布投资后直接相关。如今，Telegram 已成为快速启动项目、测试用户需求并建立社区互动的热门平台。

一个持续吸引关注的领域是加密与 AI 的交汇点。在 AI/ML 领域的交易数量不断增加，即使在 2023 年，这一领域的初创公司也成功吸引了风投和用户（包括加密用户和非加密用户）对不断发展的 AI 领域的浓厚兴趣。

另一个值得注意的趋势是，尽管市场在 Q2 至 Q3 期间相对平静，但 9 月的交易数量却显著上升。这主要源于市场对牛市将在 2024 年底或 2025 年初到来的预期，许多项目希望借此预期，在最佳时机推出代币。

“什么时候发币？”

受牛市预期的影响，2024 年第 4 季度成为项目最热门的代币发行时间，其次是 2024 年第 3 季度和 2025 年第 1 季度。

成功推出代币需要高昂的成本，包括吸引社区兴趣、通过营销活动获得关注、建立强大的合作伙伴关系，以及与做市商和流动性提供商合作。因此，许多初创公司会在代币生成事件 (TGE) 之前开放私募/预售轮以及 KOL 融资轮，以筹集足够资金。

观察 TGE 前的融资时间安排，大多数初创公司会提前一个季度开启融资轮，以确保能及时达到筹资目标。然而，2024 年 Q3 和 Q4 的数据表明，许多项目的计划 TGE 日期与融资轮开启时间重叠。这可能是因为部分初创公司未能及时完成筹资，最终不得不推迟 TGE 日期，以确保所有准备工作到位。

根据我自 2022 年以来的经验，尽管风投资本的部署有所增加，但整体复苏缓慢，2023 年至 2024 年的增长并不显著。这也反映在交易进入日期与计划 TGE 日期的对比中，许多初创公司因融资困难而推迟了 TGE。

估值的变化

分析交易量数据和与风投资本部署及 TGE 趋势相关的领域变化后，可以发现全年融资轮的平均估值呈下降趋势。

平均估值通常与融资轮阶段（如种子轮、私募轮、预售轮等）相关，反映了项目的成熟度以及是否有过融资历史。

在我的数据集中，45% 的项目处于种子轮融资，32% 处于私募/预售轮融资，18% 处于种子前轮融资，其余为 OTC、A 轮和 B 轮融资。

估值下降的主要原因如下：

  1. 风投资本部署与投资意愿

      2024 年风投资本的部署与 2023 年相比并未显著增加（可参考 Galaxy 的报告），并且与市场价格（尤其是 BTC 的波动）密切相关。这让许多初创公司更难筹集到资金并完成融资目标。

  2. 普通用户对公开代币发行的反应

      市场情绪低迷，加之代币发行时全面稀释估值 (FDV) 高企的历史趋势，削弱了散户投资者的热情。许多散户认为风投以折扣价提前获得代币，而自己却不得不以高估值购买，导致回报预期降低。今年早期发行代币的项目中，大多数未能维持其发行时的 FDV，代币价格普遍下跌。

      为了恢复散户投资者的信心，许多初创公司在融资时选择较低的估值，以避免 TGE 时价格过高，从而确保更可持续的市场动态。

结语

尽管历史数据和模式无法准确预测未来，但理解市场、风投和初创公司之间的动态及其相互影响仍然非常有意义。

在这个充满未知的行业中，唯一可以确定的是：加密世界永远充满惊喜——这片“狂野西部”总会带来意想不到的变化。

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