过度杠杆导致连环清算?8 张数据图带你看懂市场态势

链捕手Published on 2024-12-11Last updated on 2024-12-11

作者:Ltrd

编译:1912212.eth,Foresight News

 

这次暴跌是自 2021 年以来最大的清算。我想从微观结构的角度来分析整个情况。

首先,需要确定抛压最大的地方。我们发现——Coinbase 上的交易员在此次大规模暴跌发生前近一小时就开始大举卖出。

当然,最大的跌幅是由连环清算引发的,但这种持续的卖压,将价格推入杠杆被强平区域中起到了重要作用。那么我们如何判断市场过热了呢?很简单——资金费率以及未平仓合约数量的增长。这两个因素是当前市场的驱动因素,它表明人们使用过度杠杆。

在暴跌之后,ETH 产生了强劲的买盘。最近几天相对强势也很明显——会不会有人在买入呢?

我个人非常喜欢分析市场影响。如果我只能专注于市场中的一个特征,那一定是市场影响。在这里,你会看到一些令人震惊的事情——Coinbase 上 XRP 的市场影响相当大。

在相对成熟的大市场中,我们目睹了一连串的大额卖单,这导致市场下跌超过 5%。我们还不清楚具体发生了什么,但这显然不寻常。

你可以看到这些卖单并不正常。在接下来的几天里,这种情况可能值得关注。也许某个大玩家被迫抛售。

当类似的情况发生时,通常是强制平仓的卖单连锁反应。做市商吸收了这种卖压并进行对冲,导致信号在各大交易所之间传播。对于永续合约交易所来说,这意味着止损和清算被触发,最终的影响会更加显著,尤其是当这种情况发生在几分钟之内时。

像 XRP 这样的币种,即使市值与美国最大的公司相当,也能够飙升数百个百分点。相对于市值,市场中的 XRP 流动性仍然较差。

在火热的市场中,下一个常见的现象就是价格从最低点迅速反转。此时会有大量的清算、流动性限制,还有不少盈利的玩家想要抄底。

成交量图表显示暴跌期间的累计成交量。令人惊讶的是,USDC 和 FDUSD 都有显著的成交量,但 ADA 的成交量特格外大。

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