Metrics Ventures 市场观察：当无分歧上涨遇到放量抛压

Odaily星球日报Published on 2024-12-10Last updated on 2024-12-10

Abstract

风雨将至，希望大家能安安稳稳走完剩余的行情。

加密市场二级基金 Metrics Ventures 12 月市场观察导读

1、本月行情堪称波澜壮阔，比特币的声势浩大让不少场外犹豫的资金加快了入场的步伐，同时埋伏筹码稀少的强庄老币赚钱效应明显，带动了大量底部 Alts 向上抢夺筹码真空，但场内市场的实际盈利盘怕是寥寥，前期积累了大量人气的 Meme 已然提早开始了盘整。

2、截至笔者撰写本文之日，对于加密资产的外部事件刺激的边际效应已经明显在逐日减弱，同时 MSTR 和 BTC 都出现了顶部的高换手信号，万事万物都会顺应资产运行规律，一路无分歧的上涨总会有末端和高潮。

3、新增购买力主要源自零售市场新增资金，与圈内一直演绎的逻辑并不兼容，我们也再次见证了场内定价权的转移确认，对于后续的投资工作有重要指导意义。

市场总体行情与市场走势的盘点和点评

近期的市场很是火热，新增资金，尤其是美、韩以及欧洲的零售资金给市场带来了热热闹闹的气氛，合规改善下的 Defi 等都出现了内生性的推盘，但值得注意的是，除了前述的板块以外，一路走来表现较好的币种为老牌强庄币，且全市场在此带动下涨起来的山寨都离奇的没有过大的分歧。

没有分歧的上涨并无意义，如无根之水，尤其在 24 H 连续交易市场，没有分歧更是一种市场羸弱的另类表现，因此，尽管 Tether 一直在增发稳定币，我们依然对大多山寨币的反弹持有悲观态度，我们更倾向于认为这次看似热闹的反弹实则证明了老的 CEX 交易体系的颠覆。

此外，我们想格外提醒的是，MSTR、BTC 在最近两周的密集放量及比特币在 10 万没能继续加速都是相当悲观的短期信号，尽管我们相信趋势仍然存在，但当我们注意到链上的密集套现信号，同时场外密集看 MSTR 涨到 1000 美金、比特币永恒趋势时，此处的风险已然累积到了不容小觑的地步。

从历史经验上来看，没有人能做到完美的择时，但尊重常识和趋势是当前面对数字货币市场的较好决策，我们相信此前的 4 年周期已然改变，本轮周期将继续延长生命周期，因为我们尊重美元体系的脱实向虚大趋势，但风雨将至，希望大家能安安稳稳走完剩余的行情。

关于我们

Metrics Ventures 是数据和研究驱动的加密资产二级市场流动性基金，由经验丰富的加密专业人士团队领导。 该团队拥有一级市场孵化和二级市场交易方面的专业知识，并通过深入的链上 / 链下数据分析在行业发展中发挥积极作用。 MVC 与加密社区资深影响力人物合作，可以为项目提供长期赋能能力支持，如媒体和 KOL 资源、生态协作资源、项目策略、经济模型咨询能力等。

欢迎大家 DM，一起分享和探讨关于加密资产的市场与投资的见解和想法。

我们的研究内容会同步发布在 Twitter 和 Notion，欢迎关注：

Twitter: https://twitter.com/MetricsVentures

Notion: https://www.notion.so/metricsventures/Metrics-Ventures- 475803 b 4407946 b 1 ae 6 e 0 eeaa 8708 fa 2 ?pvs=4

招人中! 诚招交易员，薪酬优渥，工作地点灵活

如果你： 在 40 以下买入过 sol/ 25 以下 ordi/ 14 以下 inj/ 3.2 以下 rndr/ 10 以下 tia 满足以上任意两项，欢迎联系我们 admin@metrics.ventures, ops@metrics.ventures

Trending Cryptos

ctr
CitreaCTR
wstusdt
wrapped stUSDTWSTUSDT
apr
aPrioriAPR
ctx
Cryptex FinanceCTX
audio
AudiusAUDIO
mantra
MantraMANTRA
xvs
VenusXVS
waxl
AxelarWAXL
bill
Billions NetworkBILL
pyth
PYTH (Pyth)PYTH
rune
THORChainRUNE
velodrome
Velodrome FinanceVELODROME
brev
BrevisBREV
zrx
ZRX（0X）ZRX
cake
PancakeSwapCAKE

Related Reads

Bittensor's Intellectual Arbitrage Trap: Capital Only Speculates on Tokens, Quality AI Goes Unpaid

The article critiques the inherent flaws in the Bittensor network's decentralized AI incentive model. While designed to use TAO tokens to reward AI development across specialized subnets (like model training or data crawling), the system prioritizes capital flow over genuine utility. A subnet's reward allocation is primarily determined by the price of its native Alpha token, creating a self-reinforcing loop where buying pressure begets more rewards, detached from the actual quality or real-world adoption of the AI services. Critical vulnerabilities are exposed: the scoring mechanism for AI outputs can be gamed if a majority of validators collude, and "score copying" among validators is possible. The network's value is anchored to speculative trading rather than verified user demand or revenue. Despite these issues, the author acknowledges Bittensor's potential to foster open, distributed AI infrastructure, similar to how past tech bubbles built lasting assets. The pending approval of Bittensor ETFs could bring both significant capital and necessary regulatory scrutiny, potentially forcing the ecosystem to mature and align incentives with tangible value creation.

Foresight News12m ago

Bittensor's Intellectual Arbitrage Trap: Capital Only Speculates on Tokens, Quality AI Goes Unpaid

Foresight News12m ago

‘Walled off’ – Hyperliquid, Phantom press CFTC for 3 DeFi demands

Hyperliquid and Solana-based wallet Phantom have urged the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to modernize regulations for decentralized finance (DeFi). In a letter, they made three key requests: first, that non-custodial software developers not be automatically treated as brokers or exchanges; second, that existing no-action relief for self-custodial wallets be formalized into guidance; and third, that the CFTC create a framework allowing regulated entities to use blockchain for trading and settlement. They argue these changes are necessary to prevent stifling innovation and pushing activity offshore. The request responds to a CFTC inquiry on barriers to fintech partnerships. Similar exemptions are under discussion in the proposed CLARITY Act. However, granting these requests could face legal challenges from traditional market participants like the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), which has previously sued the CFTC over crypto product approvals. Traditional players argue DeFi platforms should meet the same regulatory standards as conventional exchanges. With the CLARITY Act's future uncertain, any CFTC action on DeFi exemptions may lead to further litigation.

ambcrypto15m ago

‘Walled off’ – Hyperliquid, Phantom press CFTC for 3 DeFi demands

ambcrypto15m ago

Walsh Is Quietly Reshaping the Federal Reserve Through Five Working Groups

In an effort to subtly reshape the Federal Reserve, Chair Kevin Wash has established five "Chair's Advancement of Monetary Policy" working groups. These groups, led entirely by 15 external experts and supported by Fed staff, cover the entire monetary policy "operating system": data inputs, productivity/employment/inflation models, balance sheet tools, and external communications. The initiative centralizes agenda-setting, knowledge production, data access, and public narrative control under the Chair's office, while formal decision-making power remains with the FOMC and Board. Analysts note this mirrors tactics like China's use of central working groups—bypassing bureaucratic inertia, creating parallel reporting channels, and enabling rapid "top-level design" to reset policy agendas. This suggests Wash may hold off on major policy moves until the groups conclude their studies. Key future questions are whether these groups become permanent and if their conclusions effectively become pre-determined policy for the FOMC to ratify.

marsbit55m ago

Walsh Is Quietly Reshaping the Federal Reserve Through Five Working Groups

marsbit55m ago

WEEX TradFi Trading Competition Kicks Off, 50,000 USDT Prize Pool First-Come, First-Served, Open a Position and Get 5 U

WEEX Exchange Launches "TradFi Trading Competition" with a 50,000 USDT Prize Pool Amidst a crypto market downturn, WEEX Exchange highlights the growth of tokenized traditional finance (TradFi) assets as a key trend, allowing users to trade stocks, ETFs, and commodities using crypto. The platform has launched a "TradFi Trading Competition" from July 9th to 23rd, featuring a 50,000 USDT prize pool. The campaign offers three reward tiers: 1. **New User Bonus (25,000 USDT pool):** New users depositing ≥100 USDT, completing a specified spot trade, and one TradFi contract trade (margin ≥10 USDT) receive 200 USDT. 2. **Volume-Based Rewards (20,000 USDT pool):** All users can earn tiered bonuses for achieving TradFi contract trading volumes of 5,000 USDT (3 USDT), 20,000 USDT (10 USDT), and 100,000 USDT (50 USDT). Rewards are stackable. 3. **Participation Reward:** Any user opening a TradFi contract trade during the event receives 5 USDT instantly. The article promotes WEEX's TradFi features, which include trading tokenized shares of companies like NVIDIA and Tesla using USDT, 24/7 trading, fractional share investing starting from $5, and high leverage up to 100x for hedging. It positions these features as solutions to traditional investing barriers like high fees, strict trading hours, and high share prices. The summary concludes by encouraging users to join the competition and leverage WEEX's platform to access global TradFi markets.

marsbit1h ago

WEEX TradFi Trading Competition Kicks Off, 50,000 USDT Prize Pool First-Come, First-Served, Open a Position and Get 5 U

marsbit1h ago

Switching Chains for Another Shot at Success: Can It Really 'Change One's Destiny'?

Recent months have witnessed a wave of established blockchain projects migrating to new public chains, notably Base and Arbitrum, coupled with strategic pivots in their business models—essentially "re-starting" elsewhere. Examples include Sophon (moving from ZKsync to Base to cut $3M+ annual costs and focus on consumer apps), Moonbeam (shifting from Polkadot to Base to pursue decentralized AI), and Secret Network (planning a move from Cosmos to Arbitrum to explore privacy-AI integrations, though its token price plunged 30% post-announcement). A common thread is that these migrating projects are primarily layer-1 or layer-2 chains now seeking relevance in AI and real-world consumer applications. This trend highlights the relative stagnation of ecosystems like Polkadot and Cosmos, which are seeing significant outflows. However, the community remains skeptical about whether such chain-hopping truly enables a turnaround. Historical cases like y00ts NFTs (which moved from Solana to Polygon and back to Ethereum) and Synthetix (which retreated from a multi-chain strategy) show that migration often fails to deliver expected benefits and can add complexity. In today's more rational market, devoid of easy narrative or airdrop红利, simply changing chains is unlikely to be a silver bullet. For both migrating projects and destination chains, the real challenge lies not in attracting projects but in developing actual use cases that retain users.

marsbit1h ago

Switching Chains for Another Shot at Success: Can It Really 'Change One's Destiny'?

marsbit1h ago

Trading

Spot

Hot Articles

What is $BITCOIN

DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN): A Comprehensive Analysis Introduction to DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a blockchain-based project operating on the Solana network, which aims to combine the characteristics of traditional precious metals with the innovation of decentralized technologies. While it shares a name with Bitcoin, often referred to as “digital gold” due to its perception as a store of value, DIGITAL GOLD is a separate token designed to create a unique ecosystem within the Web3 landscape. Its goal is to position itself as a viable alternative digital asset, although specifics regarding its applications and functionalities are still developing. What is DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a cryptocurrency token explicitly designed for use on the Solana blockchain. In contrast to Bitcoin, which provides a widely recognized value storage role, this token appears to focus on broader applications and characteristics. Notable aspects include: Blockchain Infrastructure: The token is built on the Solana blockchain, known for its capacity to handle high-speed and low-cost transactions. Supply Dynamics: DIGITAL GOLD has a maximum supply capped at 100 quadrillion tokens (100P $BITCOIN), although details regarding its circulating supply are currently undisclosed. Utility: While precise functionalities are not explicitly outlined, there are indications that the token could be utilized for various applications, potentially involving decentralized applications (dApps) or asset tokenization strategies. Who is the Creator of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? At present, the identity of the creators and development team behind DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) remains unknown. This situation is typical among many innovative projects within the blockchain space, particularly those aligning with decentralized finance and meme coin phenomena. While such anonymity may foster a community-driven culture, it intensifies concerns about governance and accountability. Who are the Investors of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? The available information indicates that DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) does not have any known institutional backers or prominent venture capital investments. The project seems to operate on a peer-to-peer model focused on community support and adoption rather than traditional funding routes. Its activity and liquidity are primarily situated on decentralized exchanges (DEXs), such as PumpSwap, rather than established centralized trading platforms, further highlighting its grassroots approach. How DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) Works The operational mechanics of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) can be elaborated on based on its blockchain design and network attributes: Consensus Mechanism: By leveraging Solana’s unique proof-of-history (PoH) combined with a proof-of-stake (PoS) model, the project ensures efficient transaction validation contributing to the network's high performance. Tokenomics: While specific deflationary mechanisms have not been extensively detailed, the vast maximum token supply implies that it may cater to microtransactions or niche use cases that are still to be defined. Interoperability: There exists the potential for integration with Solana’s broader ecosystem, including various decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms. However, the details regarding specific integrations remain unspecified. Timeline of Key Events Here is a timeline that highlights significant milestones concerning DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN): 2023: The initial deployment of the token occurs on the Solana blockchain, marked by its contract address. 2024: DIGITAL GOLD gains visibility as it becomes available for trading on decentralized exchanges like PumpSwap, allowing users to trade it against SOL. 2025: The project witnesses sporadic trading activity and potential interest in community-led engagements, although no noteworthy partnerships or technical advancements have been documented as of yet. Critical Analysis Strengths Scalability: The underlying Solana infrastructure supports high transaction volumes, which could enhance the utility of $BITCOIN in various transaction scenarios. Accessibility: The potential low trading price per token could attract retail investors, facilitating wider participation due to fractional ownership opportunities. Risks Lack of Transparency: The absence of publicly known backers, developers, or an audit process may yield skepticism regarding the project's sustainability and trustworthiness. Market Volatility: The trading activity is heavily reliant on speculative behavior, which can result in significant price volatility and uncertainty for investors. Conclusion DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) emerges as an intriguing yet ambiguous project within the rapidly evolving Solana ecosystem. While it attempts to leverage the “digital gold” narrative, its departure from Bitcoin's established role as a store of value underscores the need for a clearer differentiation of its intended utility and governance structure. Future acceptance and adoption will likely depend on addressing the current opacity and defining its operational and economic strategies more explicitly. Note: This report encompasses synthesised information available as of October 2023, and developments may have transpired beyond the research period.

706 Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

What is $BITCOIN

Discussions

Welcome to the HTX Community. Here, you can stay informed about the latest platform developments and gain access to professional market insights. Users' opinions on the price of BTC (BTC) are presented below.

活动图片

Top Questions