BTC波动率周回顾 (十一月18日-十一月25日)

Odaily星球日报Published on 2024-11-26Last updated on 2024-11-26

Abstract

价格上涨的趋势仍在继续延续,但实际波动率正在减缓且动量在逐渐停滞。这些迹象暗示短期内的最高点或许正在出现(但我们是否已经到达最高点还是继续突破10万美元的价格,依然有待观察)。

BTC波动率周回顾 (十一月18日-十一月25日)

关键指标:(十一月 18 日 下午四点-十一月 25 日 下午四点 香港时间)

  • BTC 对 USD 上涨 7.0% ($ 91, 750-$ 98, 200),ETH 对 USD 上涨 8.6% ($ 3, 140-$ 3, 410)

  • BTC 对 USD 年底(十二月) ATM 波动率上涨 3.0 点( 57.0->60.0),年底 25 d 偏度降-1.0 点( 5.9->4.9)

BTC波动率周回顾 (十一月18日-十一月25日)

  • 价格上涨的趋势仍在继续延续,但实际波动率正在减缓且动量在逐渐停滞。这些迹象暗示短期内的最高点或许正在出现(但我们是否已经到达最高点还是继续突破 10 万美元的价格,依然有待观察)。

  • 我们认为洗仓不会导致币价大幅下跌,因为价格在 85 k-93 k 美元之间有非常不错的支撑,MSTR 导致的混乱与狂热会暂时给市场提供足够的买单。市场价格的动向与我们一直在追踪的艾略特波动理论很好地契合。

  • 如果币价突破 100-104 k 美元,会进一步打开第三波上涨行情的空间(如图),并意味着上涨会延续到 130-150 k 美元,而不是我们目前认为的 115-120 k 美元。

市场主题

  • 在过去一周中,“特朗普交易”还在持续进行。美元兑其他法币走高,美国国债收益率也在持续上升。加密货币的表现再次与美元脱钩。比特币试探到了 99.8 k 美元的高点,在 100 k 美元的关键心理点位前失去了前进的动力。其他小币也出现了令人惊叹的涨势,ETH 也终于从沉寂中苏醒。

  • 斯科特 贝森特被确认为特朗普的财政部长,消除了霍华德 卢特尼克可能获选的潜在看涨因素。

  • 上周,MSTR 宣布购买了 55 k 个比特币(平均价格为 97, 862 美元,总价值达 54 亿美元),充分使用了他们从卖股和发行可转债筹集的基金。在价格接近高点时,ETF 持有者重新平衡持仓的影响超过了 MSTR 的持续购买,因此在 97-100 k 美元的价格区间内,市场整体的供求保持相当平衡。

ATM 隐含波动率

BTC波动率周回顾 (十一月18日-十一月25日)

  • 尽管本周价格一度冲击 10 万美元,但考虑到所有因素,稳定的短期隐含波动率非常合理,因为实际波动率并没有因为币价的活跃有实质性的增高。远期存在更多上涨侧机会的需求,导致三月/六月隐含波动率上升。

  • 如果现货价格难以突破 90-100 k 美元,我们预计市场会在年底之际在短期头寸上获利了结,并导致短期曲线的压力增加,特别是感恩节和圣诞节即将到来。自然地这将会导致期限结构走陡。

偏度/峰度

BTC波动率周回顾 (十一月18日-十一月25日)

BTC波动率周回顾 (十一月18日-十一月25日)

  • 本周偏度保持相对平稳。由于币价没能突破 10 万大关,市场对币价向下修正的不安正在日益增长。此外,隐含/实际波动率在价格高点难以提升,尤其是在短期,这抑制了价格-波动率之间的相关性,并进一步抑制了偏度。在曲线更远的地方,价格-波动率之间的相关性更明显(三月/六月/九月的隐含波动率在价格高点更高),因此偏度在曲线远端获得了更好的支撑。

  • 伴随着实际波动率的波动在本周大幅上升,峰度也大幅上涨。我们观察到市场上存在对翼侧行权价的需求,尤其是上方的 100 k 附近。同时,市场上也出现对短期下方行权价的需求,主要是为了保护现货和保证金。

祝大家接下来的一周好运!

BTC波动率周回顾 (十一月18日-十一月25日)

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689 Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

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