Vitalik铸造的预测市场NFT:有何用例与权益?协议价值如何评估?

Odaily星球日报Published on 2024-11-20Last updated on 2024-11-20

Abstract

NFT将是代币空投凭证;代币换算总市值达2500万美元,仅有治理权利。

原创 | Odaily星球日报(@OdailyChina

作者|南枳(@Assassin_Malvo

Vitalik铸造的预测市场NFT:有何用例与权益?协议价值如何评估?

昨日晚间约 19 时,VItalik 地址向 Base 跨链了 32 枚 ETH,并铸造了 400 个名为 Oracle Patron 的 NFT,被社区关注后铸造速度飙升。OpenSea 数据显示,铸造完毕后交易价格由 0.08 ETH 的成本快速上升至最高 0.25 ETH,截至发文时地板价仍达 0.232 ETH,涨幅近 200% ,总市值约为 1080 万美元。 

(注:VItalik 地址为0xd8dA6BF26964aF9D7eEd9e03E53415D37aA96045

Oracle Patron NFT 出自什么项目?有哪些用例或者权益?Odaily星球日报将于本文解析。

预测市场 Truemarkets

Oracle Patron NFT 的发行方为 Truemarkets,这是一个二元预测市场,其交易机制与 Polymarket 基本一致,针对每个事件将问题简化为是与否两种答案,并创建对应的二元交易市场。而两方答案则根据市场感知的结果赔率实时定价,由提供 YES 和 NO 代币流动性的交易者和做市商进行市场均衡。当结果落定后,与正确答案相对应的代币可按 1 美元赎回,而相反代币则价值归零。

(参考阅读:《超详细揭秘 Polymarket 背后的技术实现方式》、《美国大选临近,Polymarket 的数据更可信吗?》)

Vitalik铸造的预测市场NFT:有何用例与权益?协议价值如何评估?

有何不同?

与 Polymarket 通过提案审核从而创建市场的流程不同,目前 Truemarkets 的市场创建仅限于白名单地址。在官方文档中 Truemarkets 表示,市场创建还将委托给 AI Agent,并将于 2025 年实现无需许可的市场创建,但尚未披露具体流程与方法。

NFT 与代币用例

据官方文档,当前 Oracle Patron NFT 唯一的用途是作为代币 TRUE 空投的权益证明每个 NFT 分配 2666.67 枚 TRUE 代币,共计 4019 万枚,占代币总量的 40.19% 。因此根据当前 NFT 市值倒推,代币总市值为 2500 万美元。

那么代币有何用途?根据当前的官方文档TRUE仅作为治理代币使用,代币持有者具有控制协议费用、管理预言机委员会等权限,而预言机委员又负责管理市场创建、激励分配、争议处理等事务,尚未看到代币具有实质性激励的有关内容。

Vitalik铸造的预测市场NFT:有何用例与权益?协议价值如何评估?

大选之后,预测市场们还好吗?

美国大选无疑是支撑其 Polymarket 以及其他预测市场的关键,在特朗普胜选后,DefiLlama 数据显示,预测市场 TVL 由最高点的 5.45 亿美元下跌至当前的 1.34 亿美元,并在该水平横盘一周。TVL 排行中 Polymarket 独占鳌头,约 1 亿美元,第二名的 Azuro 则为 780 万美元,断档明显。

产品方面,Polymarket 已多日没有更新,当前的重点仍在更新各类市场,目前排名第一的市场为“美联储 12 月将降息多少个基点”。

Vitalik铸造的预测市场NFT:有何用例与权益?协议价值如何评估?

同样地,Azuro 在产品与机制方面近几个月也没有重大更新,其重点同样着力于拓宽市场。10 月末,Azuro 推出特殊市场(Special markets),允许创建常规体育或政治范围外的事件,其举例“CZ 出狱后会重返币安吗”、” BTC 会在 2024 年 12 月之前创下新高吗?“等事件。

Vitalik铸造的预测市场NFT:有何用例与权益?协议价值如何评估?

由此可见,预测市场机制方面已进入一个相对成熟、稳定的阶段,如何发现与创建“人民喜闻乐见”的下注题材将是未来较长一段时间内的发展重点。

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EternaFi Agents represents an AI-NFT infrastructure project that aims to blend the capabilities of AI with blockchain technology in a coherent ecosystem. The essential feature of this project is the creation of NFTs that serve as financial instruments, representing fractions of ownership in Nova Club's proprietary AI infrastructure. Each NFT symbolizes direct exposure to the economic performance of the underlying AI system, providing a lucrative opportunity for investors. The project operates on the Base blockchain, known for its scalability and efficiency, thus ensuring manageable transaction costs while facilitating a seamless operational experience. One of the notable features includes a revenue-sharing mechanism, wherein NFT holders can receive portions of subscription income generated by the AI services provided on the platform. 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