预测：比特币价格需要2个月才能回到“宏观趋势之上”

tokeninsight_newsPublished on 2024-11-05Last updated on 2024-11-05

据 Cointelegraph 报道，分析师预测，2025 年初比特币价格将以强劲势头反弹，但美国总统选举将影响比特币多头，直到就职日。

新的预测显示，比特币将在“宏观趋势之上”反弹，但这将仅发生在 2025 年。

在 11 月 4 日的最新 X 内容中，交易资源 Material Indicators 的共同创始人基思·艾伦（Keith Alan）表示，美国总统选举将在两个月内对比特币价格走势产生影响。

比特币将“无论如何”超越宏观趋势

比特币交易者在美国选举日的到来之际仍然准备好迎接波动和意外变动，但一些人已经开始关注结果之外的事情。

对于艾伦来说，特朗普获胜将引发比特币/美元的“本能反应”，而如果民主党继续执政，则会出现相反情况。

“在选票统计之前，比特币不会创下新高，”他在关于短期比特币价格表现的四个“假设”之一中总结道。

艾伦指出，包括 2021 年 4 月的中期高点和 21 天简单移动平均线（SMA）在内的各种支撑线未能形成有效支撑，69,000 美元也未能成为支撑位。

“50 日移动平均线的技术支撑正日益受到关注，21 周移动平均线的二级支撑也在看涨，但波动性可能会摧毁技术面，”该帖子承认。

前景展望

展望未来，由于地缘政治变动，比特币可能面临长期困扰。

市场可能需要等到新政府正式执政后才能再次表现出色，这将在 1 月中旬发生。

“在 1 月 20 日的就职日之前，我们不会免于这场由政治引发的焦虑、压力、混乱或市场波动的‘风暴’，”艾伦总结道。

“无论谁赢得 2024 年的选举，到 2025 年第二季度，比特币将返回其超越宏观趋势的轨迹。”

比特币价格趋势线被视为下行支撑

正如 Cointelegraph 持续报道的那样，市场参与者仍然认为比特币会迎来历史新高。

一些预测显示，未来几个月将发生重大价格发现事件，包括在 2025 年初达到 100,000 美元。

上周，比特币/美元的价格几乎与 3 月创下的当前纪录持平。

“如果情况开始恶化，不要排除回落到 50 周移动平均线以及潜在的宏观趋势线的可能性，”Material Indicators 在其帖子中警告道。

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