BTC波动率:一周回顾2024年10月21日–10月28日

Odaily星球日报Published on 2024-10-28Last updated on 2024-10-28

Abstract

BTC现货市场上周表现非常克制,坚守在69.5k到65k之间。我们持续观察到市场被困在长线旗形图案的支撑位和其上方$70.25k的阻力位之间。因此预期市场在接下来的几天内会继续保持在这个区间...

BTC波动率:一周回顾2024年10月21日–10月28日

关键指标:( 21 Oct 4 pm 香港时间 -> 28 Oct 4 pm 香港时间)

  • BTC/USD 价格稳定($ 68, 500->$ 68, 500), ETH/USD 价格下跌-7.5% ($ 2, 725->$ 2, 520)

  • BTC/USD 年底 ATM vol 下降-1.6 点( 55.9->54.3), 年底 25 d 偏度 下降-0.6 点( 4.3->3.7)

现货技术指标一览

BTC波动率:一周回顾2024年10月21日–10月28日

  • BTC 现货市场上周表现非常克制,坚守在 69.5 k 到 65 k 之间。我们持续观察到市场被困在长线旗形图案的支撑位和其上方$ 70.25 k 的阻力位之间。因此预期市场在接下来的几天内会继续保持在这个区间。

  • 考虑到市场的现状和特朗普获选胜算的不断攀升,我们认为接下来的一周延续到大选到来前,市场会向上尝试突破这个区间。

市场主题

  • 全球市场整周保持平静,大家都在热切地观望美国大选的结果。总体上来讲,“没有消息就是好消息”。在美国方面数据保持相对稳定的前提下,风险资产继续小幅上涨。

  • 尽管以色列在周末向伊朗的军事基地发射火箭进行反击,市场普遍认为这是一种缓和举措。因为这次反击非常有针对性而且伊朗否认受到影响。从这一事件来看美国对以色列的影响占据了上风并消除了这一地缘政治带来的尾部风险。

  • 《华尔街日报》周五晚间报道了美国政府对泰达币(Tether)进行的调查,导致 USDT 短暂跌破锚定价并给整个加密货币市场带来了压力。然而,泰达币的首席执行官否认了这一猜测性的报道,周末没有再出现进一步的证实性消息。加密货币市场随后重新回升,USDT 的价格也随之回到略微低于锚定价的水平。

  • 特朗普获选胜算持续攀升( 65-66% 的支持率),同时共和党全面胜出的赔率也从 42% 上升到 48% 。其他市场明显已经开始为特朗普获胜而做准备,但加密货币群体还在等待进一步的证实消息,然后才会尝试向上突破 BTC 的历史高点。

BTC 隐含波动率

BTC波动率:一周回顾2024年10月21日–10月28日

  • 又是一周低迷的实际波动率。大选前,比特币价格持续在$ 65 k 到$ 70 k 之间稳定。比特币下探到$ 65 k 到$ 66 k 区间时得到了良好的支撑,同时在几次尝试突破$ 69 k 失败后币价难以再展现出任何上涨的动能。

  • 伴随着平静的现货市场和更多来自年底 vs 明年三月的卖压,隐含波动率水平在本周普遍呈下降趋势(11 月到期的合约除外)。尽管隐含波动率的绝对水平看起来较低,但与实际波动相比仍然存在相当高的溢价。

  • 11 月到期日的隐含波动率逆流而上从上周的低位上升。随着美国大选的临近,市场对期权的需求量开始增加。市场的兴趣从纯粹的买入跨式/宽跨式,买入看涨期权价差再到买入看跌保护不等。由于当日盈亏平衡点依然在 6% 左右徘徊,我们预计接下来的一周中 11 月到期合约的期权需求将继续增加。

偏度/峰度

BTC波动率:一周回顾2024年10月21日–10月28日

BTC波动率:一周回顾2024年10月21日–10月28日

  • 整体而言,偏度的价格普遍回到上周初的高点,泰达币消息后稍有下跌,但本周结束时仅比周初略微下跌。市场对持有 50 k~ 60 k 行权价范围内的期权普遍缺乏兴趣(除了可能会为选举进行短期尾部对冲),这抵消了现货实际波动在价格高点表现不佳的影响。更具体的来讲,市场对特朗普获选/共和党大胜后创下币价历史新高的上行风险更感兴趣,这一表现支撑了波动率的偏度。

  • 峰度的水平变化不大,市场在波动率下跌环境中对翼部的交易兴致缺缺。然而,如果币价出现大幅波动,波动率的变化和偏度的变化会在两翼均有显现,这为峰度停留在目前的水平提供了支撑。

希望大家在接下来的一周交易顺利!

BTC波动率:一周回顾2024年10月21日–10月28日

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What is $BITCOIN

DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN): A Comprehensive Analysis Introduction to DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a blockchain-based project operating on the Solana network, which aims to combine the characteristics of traditional precious metals with the innovation of decentralized technologies. While it shares a name with Bitcoin, often referred to as “digital gold” due to its perception as a store of value, DIGITAL GOLD is a separate token designed to create a unique ecosystem within the Web3 landscape. Its goal is to position itself as a viable alternative digital asset, although specifics regarding its applications and functionalities are still developing. What is DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a cryptocurrency token explicitly designed for use on the Solana blockchain. In contrast to Bitcoin, which provides a widely recognized value storage role, this token appears to focus on broader applications and characteristics. Notable aspects include: Blockchain Infrastructure: The token is built on the Solana blockchain, known for its capacity to handle high-speed and low-cost transactions. Supply Dynamics: DIGITAL GOLD has a maximum supply capped at 100 quadrillion tokens (100P $BITCOIN), although details regarding its circulating supply are currently undisclosed. Utility: While precise functionalities are not explicitly outlined, there are indications that the token could be utilized for various applications, potentially involving decentralized applications (dApps) or asset tokenization strategies. Who is the Creator of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? At present, the identity of the creators and development team behind DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) remains unknown. This situation is typical among many innovative projects within the blockchain space, particularly those aligning with decentralized finance and meme coin phenomena. While such anonymity may foster a community-driven culture, it intensifies concerns about governance and accountability. Who are the Investors of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? The available information indicates that DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) does not have any known institutional backers or prominent venture capital investments. The project seems to operate on a peer-to-peer model focused on community support and adoption rather than traditional funding routes. Its activity and liquidity are primarily situated on decentralized exchanges (DEXs), such as PumpSwap, rather than established centralized trading platforms, further highlighting its grassroots approach. How DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) Works The operational mechanics of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) can be elaborated on based on its blockchain design and network attributes: Consensus Mechanism: By leveraging Solana’s unique proof-of-history (PoH) combined with a proof-of-stake (PoS) model, the project ensures efficient transaction validation contributing to the network's high performance. Tokenomics: While specific deflationary mechanisms have not been extensively detailed, the vast maximum token supply implies that it may cater to microtransactions or niche use cases that are still to be defined. Interoperability: There exists the potential for integration with Solana’s broader ecosystem, including various decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms. However, the details regarding specific integrations remain unspecified. Timeline of Key Events Here is a timeline that highlights significant milestones concerning DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN): 2023: The initial deployment of the token occurs on the Solana blockchain, marked by its contract address. 2024: DIGITAL GOLD gains visibility as it becomes available for trading on decentralized exchanges like PumpSwap, allowing users to trade it against SOL. 2025: The project witnesses sporadic trading activity and potential interest in community-led engagements, although no noteworthy partnerships or technical advancements have been documented as of yet. Critical Analysis Strengths Scalability: The underlying Solana infrastructure supports high transaction volumes, which could enhance the utility of $BITCOIN in various transaction scenarios. Accessibility: The potential low trading price per token could attract retail investors, facilitating wider participation due to fractional ownership opportunities. 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Note: This report encompasses synthesised information available as of October 2023, and developments may have transpired beyond the research period.

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