比特币兑黄金会涨 400% 吗？资深分析师怎么说？

比推Published on 2024-09-23Last updated on 2024-09-23

作者：Yashu Gola，CoinTelegraph；编译：白水，金色财经

与传统避险对手黄金相比，比特币的市值自诞生以来已飙升了惊人的 350,000%。

新的信号表明，比特币可能即将迎来另一次长期价格上涨，预示着比特币对贵金属的上涨势头将重新增强。

2025 年，比特币兑黄金的汇率可能增长超过 400%

BTC/GLD 比率图比较了资产的表现，可以作为衡量 BTC 相对于黄金的采用率的晴雨表。例如，比率的上升反映了比特币在市值表现方面优于黄金，反之亦然。

据资深市场分析师 Peter Brandt 称，2025 年比特币兑黄金的比率可能会上升超过 400%。Brandt 引用了一个经典的技术模式来表达他极度看涨的前景。

这种模式被称为倒头肩 (IH&S)，当价格形成三个连续的低谷时就会形成，中间的低谷——称为头部——比其他两个谷底（称为左肩和右肩）更深。该模式形成在一条称为颈线的共同支撑线下方。

作为技术分析的规则，当价格突破颈线并伴随交易量上升时，IH&S 模式就会解决。在此过程中，它会上升到颈线和头部最深点之间的最大距离。

RknBYtzm2X9D7PMP5CFVPD9sjkjjtx9W6J49mrtb.jpeg

BTC/GLD 每周比率图。资料来源：Peter Brandt

在 BTC/GLD 比率图上应用相同的技术原理，其上行目标将达到 123 左右。换句话说，1 BTC 的价格最早在 2025 年就可能等于 123 盎司黄金，与 2024 年 9 月 22 日的 24 盎司相比上涨了 400% 以上。

比特币 ETF 市场规模将增长至 2200 亿美元

比特币超越黄金的想法源于其快速普及，尤其是机构投资者的普及，以及比特币交易所交易基金 (ETF) 的推出，这些都增强了比特币在投资组合中的地位。

自 2024 年 1 月以来，比特币 ETF 的批准已带来超过 176.9 亿美元的资金流入，预计到 2027 年，以黄金 ETF 为基准，比特币 ETF 市场规模可能增长至 2200 亿美元。

此外，安东尼·斯卡拉穆奇 (Anthony Scaramucci) 等专家认为，比特币最终将在未来十年内超越黄金的市值，并指出 BTC 具有稀缺性和可移植性等优势。

原文链接:https://www.jinse.cn/blockchain/3698020.html
说明: 比推所有文章只代表作者观点，不构成投资建议
比特币金色财经黄金
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