BTC波动率 : FOMC会议

Odaily星球日报Published on 2024-09-19Last updated on 2024-09-19

Abstract

美联储开启降息周期,宣布降息50个基点,主席鲍威尔对美国经济状况很有信心...

BTC波动率 : FOMC会议

关键指标(香港时间 9 月 19 日凌晨 12 点 -> 中午 12 点):

  • BTC/USD 现货 + 4.5% ($ 59, 400 -> $ 62, 100)

  • BTC/USD 9 月 27 日 ATM 波动率 -7.0 v ( 54.5 -> 47.5) ;12 月(年底)ATM 波动率 -1.4 v ( 59.6-> 58.2), 12 月 25 d 风险逆转波动率 -0.3 v ( 2.3 -> 2.0)

FOMC 会议纪要

  • 美联储开启降息周期,宣布降息 50 个基点,主席鲍威尔对美国经济状况很有信心(“如果你问大多数市场参与者,他们会说经济状况良好”)

  • 市场的即时反应是美股上涨,美元走低(相对于法定货币和黄金)和收益率下降。然而,会议结束后大部分涨跌被市场重新调整消化。BTC/USD 和 ETH/USD 在会议期间表现较为平静,但亚洲早盘时段出现 4% 的反弹。受风险偏好情绪推动,山寨币普遍走高

  • 市场整体反应平淡,跨市场隐含波动率承压,美国大选成为市场在 10 月关注的下一个重要事件。同时,市场和美联储将密切关注接下来的经济增长数据

BTC/USD 波动率回顾

  • 本周初,市场相对平静。然而,临近会议时,市场对事件风险的关注明显上升,隐含波动率的交易也随之增多。昨晚隔夜波动率从 65 上升到 90 ,意味着隔夜跨式期权的盈亏平衡点为 3.5% 。最终,现货价格由于今晨的波动达到了盈亏平衡点,但事件本身的价格波动表现平淡,到纽约时间下午 5 点,现货价格稳定在 6 万美元附近。由于市场对 Gamma 的需求增加,稍远期限的波动率也被推高。9 月 27 日到期的波动率一度从 51.5 上升至 54.5 ,但随后迅速回落至目前的 47.5 。

BTC波动率 : FOMC会议

  • 曲线较远端的成交量相对平淡,隐含波动率在事件前后逐渐下行,市场仍在寻找新的叙事打破当前的区间震荡交易。今晨现货价格突破引发的短暂波动很快被市场消化,今早价格的突破使得 IV 短暂上行,但很快由此前 Long Vega 的人在该时点出货而回吐涨幅

BTC波动率 : FOMC会议

  • 波动率偏斜定价非常平稳,尽管现货价格有所上涨,但市场的看涨情绪尚未回归。意料之中,隐含波动率在现货价格的上下两侧都难以出现显著波动(实际上,现货价格上升时遇到了一些顶部卖压)

BTC波动率 : FOMC会议

加密货币波动率展望

  • 短期内,除非现货价格出现新的上涨突破,否则我们预计前端隐含波动率将继续承压,实际波动率指标保持低迷(高频和固定期限均值约在 45 附近),并且近期没有即将发生的事件风险。市场参与者很可能会利用现货价格的上涨阶段,卖出短期顶部看涨期权,作为其核心多头现货头寸的对冲(今晨已经观察到部分这样的操作)

  • 由于前端波动率承压持续到周末,市场可能会低估美国大选后的到期期权定价;我们估计当前市场对美国大选日期的定价总方差约为 5-6% 。考虑到其对加密货币周期的重要性,这一定价水平似乎偏低(市场昨晚对 FOMC 定价为 4% 附近(盈亏平衡点),而为 8 月份比特币 2024 峰会定价约为 5.5% )

  • 鉴于市场对大选的概率为 50: 50 ,我们预计波动率偏斜在事件前将保持相对稳定。因为初期无论结果如何,因为在初期,市场对两种可能结果的反应可能比较对称(即对哈里斯/‘现状’结果的失望与对特朗普的看涨预期)。

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BTC波动率 : FOMC会议

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615 Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

What is $BITCOIN

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