10X Research: Ethereum найдет дно в течение 2-4 месяцев

cryptonews.ruPublished on 2024-03-13Last updated on 2024-09-13

Пока большинство инвесторов не сводит глаз с биткоина, аналитики из 10X Research предлагают обратить внимание на Ethereum (ETH). И поводов для этого более чем достаточно.

Ethereum: в поисках дна

По данным биржи Bitstamp, вторая по капитализации криптовалюта сейчас торгуется на уровне $2 358, демонстрируя снижение менее чем на 1% за последние сутки. Но если взглянуть на месячную динамику, картина вырисовывается куда более драматичная — падение на целых 15%!

1-дневный график ETH/USD. Источник: Bitstamp/TradingView

Однако эксперты из 10X Research не спешат бить тревогу. Наоборот, они полагают, что Ethereum может приближаться к состоянию долгосрочной перепроданности. Правда, они тут же добавляют ложку дегтя в бочку меда: не стоит ожидать моментального отскока. По их прогнозам, формирование дна может занять от двух до четырех месяцев.

«Трейдерам стоит следить за среднесрочными индикаторами разворота, такими как RSI и стохастик», — советуют аналитики 10X Research. Эти индиакторы могут сигнализировать о развороте тренда после достижения глубоко перепроданных уровней.

Что скрывается за сухими цифрами?

Для тех, кто не погружен в мир технического анализа по уши, поясню: RSI (индекс относительной силы) измеряет скорость и изменение ценовых движений, помогая определить, когда актив перекуплен или перепродан. А стохастический осциллятор сравнивает цену закрытия с диапазоном цен за определенный период, что может помочь предсказать потенциальные развороты рынка.

Но давайте будем честны: даже самые продвинутые индикаторы не дают 100% гарантии. Рынок криптовалют непредсказуем, и порой даже самые опытные аналитики оказываются в роли незадачливых гадалок на кофейной гуще.

ETF: битва титанов

Тем временем, пока Ethereum ищет дно, на рынке ETF разворачивается настоящая драма. 12 сентября Ethereum-ETF в тот же день продемонстрировали чистый отток в $20,1 млн. И главным «виновником» этого стал фонд Grayscale (ETHE). Похоже, инвесторы пока не готовы делать ставку на эфир, предпочитая более консервативный биткоин.

Движение средств в Ethereum-ETF США. Источник: Farside Investors

Взгляд в будущее

Джеймс Дэвис (James Davies), сооснователь и директор по продуктам Crypto Valley Exchange CVEX.XYZ, отмечает влияние более широких экономических факторов на рынок. «Технологические акции по всему миру демонстрируют рост, хорошие данные по инфляции, улучшение показателей роста повсеместно создают условия для инвестиций», — говорит он.

Дэвис также подчеркивает важность позитивных сигналов из Китая и потенциальное снижение процентных ставок в США как факторы, способствующие росту рынка.

Что касается предстоящих президентских выборов в США, Даррен Франческини (Darren Franceschini), соучредитель Fideum, прогнозирует период бокового движения цен вплоть до ноября. «Результат этих выборов может оказать значительное влияние на будущее принятие и регулирование криптовалют на финансовых рынках США», — резюмирует он.

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