Solana 交易者应该关注 SOL/BTC 交易对的 2 个原因

金色财经Published on 2024-08-29Last updated on 2024-08-29

在大盘不稳定的情况下，SOL/USD 最近面临着与其他加密货币对类似的挑战，在过去 24 小时内下跌了 4.52%。事实上，在撰写本文时，它的交易价格为 147.09 美元，尽管在本周开始时曾达到 162 美元的峰值。 

此外，SOL/BTC 对从本周开盘高点 0.0025359 美元下跌至 0.0024544 美元。这一趋势表明各种 SOL 对都存在脆弱性，这些对很有可能会遭受更多损失。

SOL 的前景看淡吗？

SOL/BTC 正在模仿 ETH/BTC 的走势，这引发了人们对这一趋势影响的担忧。

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该图表指出了这两对货币的历史相似性。ETH/BTC 在 2017 年达到峰值后暴跌了 90%，但随后又飙升了 500%。目前它正处于另一个下跌阶段。

同样，SOL/BTC 也复制了这一轨迹，在 2021 年创下历史新高后下跌了 90%，随后又上涨了 500%。如果这种历史模式持续下去，SOL/BTC 可能会在年底前面临 ETH/BTC 交易的重大下滑。

不过，尽管前景黯淡，但我仍然对该货币对在此次调整阶段后的长期复苏持乐观态度。 

据了解：“SOL 将反弹至 2025 年，然后在 2026 年再次下降。”这种修正不仅会影响 SOL/BTC，还会影响其他 SOL 对，例如 SOL/USDT 和 SOL/USD。这些货币对交易范围更广，因此更容易受到类似下跌的影响。

SOL/BTC 修正将影响其他 SOL 对

SOL/BTC（蓝线）和SOL/USD （紫线）的比较表明，这些资产的走势非常相似——尽管偶尔出现差异，但高点和低点基本一致。

下图显示了它们价格走势的这种一致性，显示出非常相似的总体趋势。进入修正阶段后，SOL/BTC 可能会抹去长期交易者和投资者的收益。 

wdwH3Wb9Ln6PQRHjCI5CxAjb0Vw8p0sToFKtwHJj.jpeg

然而，如果 SOL/BTC 成功突破 ETH/BTC 的现行趋势，攀升至更高水平，那么预计其他相关货币对也会出现相应的上涨。

上升三角形可能会改变 SOL/BTC 的叙事

在撰写本文时，SOL/BTC 在每日时间范围内处于看涨上升三角形模式内。 

这种形成通常要求价格在较长时间内维持在该模式内，然后才有可能飙升至更高的水平。

SN2wx2UAMW1X8M1Ocohw04pBMM69fZXoOlKwfFoh.jpeg

这种模式至关重要——2021 年的类似形成是 SOL/BTC 创下 0.0046700 美元的历史新高 (ATH) 的前兆。

如果这种模式持续下去，则可能意味着 SOL/BTC 与 ETH/BTC 长期建立的相关性被打破，并有可能将其推向新的高度。

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