BTC波动率:一周回顾2024年8月12日–8月19日

Odaily星球日报Published on 2024-08-20Last updated on 2024-08-20

Abstract

整体来说,全球风险市场表现良好,BTC价格在极窄的价格区间内波动,尽管BTC波幅不大,但我们仍观察到高频波动率居高不下,因为市场在58.5k-59.5k的关键区间反复波动,难以稳定在均衡水平...

BTC波动率:一周回顾2024年8月12日–8月19日

关键指标(香港时间 8 月 12 日下午 4 点 -> 8 月 20 日下午 4 点):

BTC/USD + 0.2% ($ 58, 500 -> $ 58, 600),ETH/USD + 2.75% ($ 2, 550 -> $ 2, 620)

BTC/USD 12 月(年底)ATM 波动率 + 0.7% (61.5 -> 62.2), 12 月 25 d 风险逆转波动率 + 0.5% (3.6 -> 4.1)

BTC波动率:一周回顾2024年8月12日–8月19日

  • 整体来说,全球风险市场表现良好,BTC 价格在极窄的价格区间内波动。尽管 BTC 波幅不大,但我们仍观察到高频波动率居高不下,因为市场在 58.5 k-59.5 k 的关键区间反复波动,难以稳定在均衡水平。

  • 预计 BTC 在短期内将维持在 54 k 至 64 k 的价格区间。

  • 市场似乎正在形成一个逐渐收紧的楔形/三角形形态,这表明我们可能会在本周末前见到一个拐点。然而,如果价格未能突破该区间,我们预计实际波动率很难显著上升。

市场大事件:

  • 上周传统金融市场强劲反弹,但有趣的是,加密货币市场表现却明显滞后。令人不由想起美债收益率的走势(尽管从低点反弹,但随后并未显著波动)。

  • 本周末关注焦点是杰克逊霍尔会议上的鲍威尔讲话。市场预期至少会有一次降息(甚至有 50 个基点降息的可能性)。

  • 上周地缘政治相对平静,随着美国劳动节假期临近,市场开始呈现出更多夏季的氛围。

ATM 隐含波动率:

BTC波动率:一周回顾2024年8月12日–8月19日

  • 尽管高频实现波动率较高,但前端波动率在本周内持续下滑,这主要是由于波动区间的收窄(即终端分布)。然而,在本周初期,Vega 获得了不错的买盘,这使得波动率曲线变得更加陡峭。

  • 随着市场对选举的关注增加,市场上出现更多选举日看跌价差的需求。总体而言,选举影响反应在定价里的权重看起来相当合理。

  • 如果现货区间保持稳定,那么预计 8 月的波动率将进一步收窄,使得 9 月会变得更加陡峭。

偏斜/凸性:

BTC波动率:一周回顾2024年8月12日–8月19日

BTC波动率:一周回顾2024年8月12日–8月19日

  • 本周的凸性和偏斜维持横盘;由于 ATM 波动率有所下降,前端的蝶式价差略有上升。

  • 现货-波动率相关性在局部范围内仍表现为负相关,但相比上周有所减弱。在 55-56 k 价格以下,预计会有 Gamma 需求,而在 61-62 k 价格时,预计波动率将保持疲软。

祝您本周交易顺利!

BTC波动率:一周回顾2024年8月12日–8月19日

您可在 t.signalplus.com 使用 SignalPlus 交易风向标功能,获取更多实时加密资讯。如果想即时收到我们的更新,欢迎关注我们的推特账号@SignalPlusCN,或者加入我们的微信群(添加小助手微信:SignalPlus 123)、Telegram 群以及 Discord 社群,和更多朋友一起交流互动。SignalPlus Official Website:https://www.signalplus.com

Trending Cryptos

Related Reads

Trading

Spot

Hot Articles

What is $BITCOIN

DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN): A Comprehensive Analysis Introduction to DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a blockchain-based project operating on the Solana network, which aims to combine the characteristics of traditional precious metals with the innovation of decentralized technologies. While it shares a name with Bitcoin, often referred to as “digital gold” due to its perception as a store of value, DIGITAL GOLD is a separate token designed to create a unique ecosystem within the Web3 landscape. Its goal is to position itself as a viable alternative digital asset, although specifics regarding its applications and functionalities are still developing. What is DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a cryptocurrency token explicitly designed for use on the Solana blockchain. In contrast to Bitcoin, which provides a widely recognized value storage role, this token appears to focus on broader applications and characteristics. Notable aspects include: Blockchain Infrastructure: The token is built on the Solana blockchain, known for its capacity to handle high-speed and low-cost transactions. Supply Dynamics: DIGITAL GOLD has a maximum supply capped at 100 quadrillion tokens (100P $BITCOIN), although details regarding its circulating supply are currently undisclosed. Utility: While precise functionalities are not explicitly outlined, there are indications that the token could be utilized for various applications, potentially involving decentralized applications (dApps) or asset tokenization strategies. Who is the Creator of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? At present, the identity of the creators and development team behind DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) remains unknown. This situation is typical among many innovative projects within the blockchain space, particularly those aligning with decentralized finance and meme coin phenomena. While such anonymity may foster a community-driven culture, it intensifies concerns about governance and accountability. Who are the Investors of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? The available information indicates that DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) does not have any known institutional backers or prominent venture capital investments. The project seems to operate on a peer-to-peer model focused on community support and adoption rather than traditional funding routes. Its activity and liquidity are primarily situated on decentralized exchanges (DEXs), such as PumpSwap, rather than established centralized trading platforms, further highlighting its grassroots approach. How DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) Works The operational mechanics of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) can be elaborated on based on its blockchain design and network attributes: Consensus Mechanism: By leveraging Solana’s unique proof-of-history (PoH) combined with a proof-of-stake (PoS) model, the project ensures efficient transaction validation contributing to the network's high performance. Tokenomics: While specific deflationary mechanisms have not been extensively detailed, the vast maximum token supply implies that it may cater to microtransactions or niche use cases that are still to be defined. Interoperability: There exists the potential for integration with Solana’s broader ecosystem, including various decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms. However, the details regarding specific integrations remain unspecified. Timeline of Key Events Here is a timeline that highlights significant milestones concerning DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN): 2023: The initial deployment of the token occurs on the Solana blockchain, marked by its contract address. 2024: DIGITAL GOLD gains visibility as it becomes available for trading on decentralized exchanges like PumpSwap, allowing users to trade it against SOL. 2025: The project witnesses sporadic trading activity and potential interest in community-led engagements, although no noteworthy partnerships or technical advancements have been documented as of yet. Critical Analysis Strengths Scalability: The underlying Solana infrastructure supports high transaction volumes, which could enhance the utility of $BITCOIN in various transaction scenarios. Accessibility: The potential low trading price per token could attract retail investors, facilitating wider participation due to fractional ownership opportunities. Risks Lack of Transparency: The absence of publicly known backers, developers, or an audit process may yield skepticism regarding the project's sustainability and trustworthiness. Market Volatility: The trading activity is heavily reliant on speculative behavior, which can result in significant price volatility and uncertainty for investors. Conclusion DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) emerges as an intriguing yet ambiguous project within the rapidly evolving Solana ecosystem. While it attempts to leverage the “digital gold” narrative, its departure from Bitcoin's established role as a store of value underscores the need for a clearer differentiation of its intended utility and governance structure. Future acceptance and adoption will likely depend on addressing the current opacity and defining its operational and economic strategies more explicitly. Note: This report encompasses synthesised information available as of October 2023, and developments may have transpired beyond the research period.

498 Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

What is $BITCOIN

Discussions

Welcome to the HTX Community. Here, you can stay informed about the latest platform developments and gain access to professional market insights. Users' opinions on the price of BTC (BTC) are presented below.

活动图片