比特币主导地位受阻、山寨币则崛起为主流

币界网Published on 2024-08-20Last updated on 2024-08-20

币界网报道：

人们越来越多地猜测山寨币季节是否已经开始，比特币（BTC）的主导地位（BTC.D）正努力摆脱上涨楔形。

由于比特币在 60,000 美元左右面临持续阻力，分析师认为这些情况可能为山寨币季节奠定基础。

比特币正在衰退吗？

截至撰写本文时，BTC.D 价格为 56.91%。8 月 5 日，它未能突破上涨楔形的上线，此后一直呈下跌趋势。

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比特币的主导地位

未能突破上涨楔形通常被视为看跌信号，暗示比特币的主导地位可能达到顶峰或下跌。随着比特币的主导地位减弱，它为山寨币创造了获得市场份额的机会。自 8 月 5 日以来上涨的 TOTAL2 就是这种情况。

TOTAL2 衡量了前 125 种山寨币的市值总和。截至发稿时，这一数字为 8700 亿美元，自 BTC.D 开始下跌以来已上涨 2%。

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比特币的市值

BTC.D 最近的走势进一步加剧了加密货币分析师的猜测。比特币的主导地位面临着下行趋势的强大阻力，阻止其突破楔形，从而进一步引发猜测。

BTC 主导地位止步于较大的下行趋势线，未能突破其上涨楔形看涨趋势。这对山寨币来说是个好消息，因为这种趋势在不久的将来逆转的可能性增加。

BTC.D 是“结束对角线”。结束对角线是技术分析中使用的术语，用于描述表明潜在趋势逆转的K线走势图模式。

如果 BTC.D 形成收尾对角线形态，则表明市场情绪发生重大转变。这种转变通常表明比特币的主导地位即将结束，通常会导致山寨币活动大幅上涨和价格上涨。

只有少数货币能超越领先货币

不管分析师的立场如何，重要的是要注意，当排名前 50 的山寨币中至少有 75% 在过去 90 天内的表现优于比特币时，山寨币季节就开始了。目前，只有 14 种山寨币（占 28%）做到了这一点。

FAoBLnGqbWX8BPvPea7YpzWhLcDfOMwn7ubRU8L7.jpeg

山寨币的季节指数

此外，从日线图来看，TOTAL2 的趋势位于水平通道内。当买入和卖出压力相对平衡时，就会形成该通道，从而阻止其价格向任一方向强劲发展。

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TOTAL2 每周分析

当 TOTAL2 成功突破形成阻力的通道上线时，山寨币季节将全面开始。这一突破将确认更强劲的势头，标志着比特币主导地位的转变，并为其他加密的增长开辟空间。

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