比特币每周观察(8.12~8.18):抄底资金持续流入,BTC在修复中寻找突破机会

Odaily星球日报Published on 2024-08-19Last updated on 2024-08-19

Abstract

美国长期投资者开始在二季度下场,市场资金也在持续流入,8月份或可期待BTC走出震荡行情。

撰文:Shang2046

本报告所提及市场、项目、币种等信息、观点及判断,仅供参考,不构成任何投资建议。

比特币每周观察(8.12~8.18):抄底资金持续流入,BTC在修复中寻找突破机会

美国长期投资者开始在二季度下场,市场资金也在持续流入, 8 月份或可期待 BTC 走出震荡行情

市场一周

本周比特币开于 58717.44 美元,收于 58437.90 美元,最高 61827.20 ,最低 56120.00 美元,振幅 9.72% 。全周受制于周线和双周线压制,运行于牛市上升通道线之下,但仍在新高整理区之内。Coinbase 成交量较上周减少 55% 。

市场仍处于被重创后的缓慢修复中。处于同样环境的美股比 BTC 更为强势,纳指全周上涨 5.29% ,延续了上周的反弹。

BTC 跟上美股的节奏需要资金面的进一步复苏。本周,稳定币通道资金持续大规模流入,但在本轮周期的主力军美国现货 ETF 通道,只维持了微弱的净流入。显示出外部资金暂时处于较慢的节奏之中。如 ETF 通道资金恢复,与稳定币通道资金共振有望解除周线压制,实现下一步突破。

本周值得关注的是,刚结束的美国 13 F 机构持仓报告披露,目前有 701 支新的基金在 Q2 增持了比特币现货 ETF,使总持有者数量达到了 1950 支基金。与上个季度对冲基金占据机构主力不同,此次华尔街巨头的投资顾问成为现货比特币(BTC)ETF 的最大持有者,持有总额超过 47 亿美元。

其中,高盛持有价值 4.18 亿美元的比特币,而摩根士丹利购买了 1.88 亿美元的比特币。

而威斯康星州养老金基金在上季度加倍增持了贝莱德的比特币信托基金。据我们的统计,截止目前,ETF 的平均持仓成本约为 5.8 万美元,最近进场的投资者成本大概率比这些巨头更低。

相信在度过了 90 个交易日的观望期后,越来越多的财富管理公司、保险机构、养老基金、家族办公室等长期投资者的进入才刚刚开始。这将给 BTC 中长期的走势奠定基础。

美联储及经济数据

本周美国没有核心经济数据出炉,多数机构机构认为美国经济实现软着陆的概率增大, 9 月只会以 25 个基点开启降息之路,也有机构(摩根大通)认为即使年内降息 100 个基点,整体美元流动性仍然偏紧缩。美元指数持续走低,黄金突破 2500 美元/盎司。 

资金面

继上周大幅流入 23.36 美元之后,稳定币本周继续把持大规模流入,总计增长 16.55 亿。USDT、USDC 均实现正流入,分别为 12.75、 3.63 亿,USDT 流入规模超过上周。

BTC ETF 通道, 5 个交易日 4 个交易日正流入,但全周净流入仅为 3258 万美元,但结束了此前连续两周的净流出。

筹码供应

本周市场“由短入长”持续,长手持仓成熟 8.21 万枚,而短手减持 6.67 万枚。短手连续 8 周减持,且本周为八周内的第二大减持周。

短手仍处于痛苦的平均亏损区间,且在以亏损价格卖出手中筹码,每日实现数千万美元的亏损。

交易所存量 BTC 本周流出 1.26 万枚,为 6 月 15 日以来最大流出周。表明不只短手抛压被吸收,库存也在被缓慢吸收。矿工群体增持 600 枚,已实现连续 4 周增持。算力值有所下跌,但维持高位。

BTC 链上数据

新增地址、活跃地址在上周修复之后,本周走平或下降。Transactions 持平上周,Gas 收益仍然低迷。

生态分析

Ethereum Eco 恢复较好,新增地址、活跃地址、总转账数均已重回扩张区。

Solana 新增地址、活跃地址、总转账数持续修复,正在重返扩张区。

EMC BTC Cycle 指标

EMC BTC Cycle 链上数据引擎显示,我们仍处于牛市暂时休息时段,指标强度仅为 0.125 。

END

EMC Labs(涌现实验室)由加密资产投资人和数据科学家于 2023 年 4 月创建。专注区块链产业研究及 Crypto 二级市场投资,以产业前瞻、洞察及数据挖掘为核心竞争力,致力于以研究和投资方式参与蓬勃发展的区块链产业,推动区块链及加密资产为人类带来福祉。

更多信息请访问:https://www.emc.fund

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483 Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

What is $BITCOIN

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