日本研究表明,随着波动性的上升,XRP可能会出现价格飙升

币界网Published on 2024-08-19Last updated on 2024-08-19

币界网报道:

最近在日本进行的研究表明,XRP可能会在2024年第四季度进入波动加剧的时期。

XRP社区人物Eri重点介绍了X的报告,证实该报告来自区块链公司HashHub。基于历史市场行为的研究数据表明,这种波动性的增加可能会导致价格大幅上涨。

2023年和2024年观察到的稳定性

该研究强调了XRP在2023年和2024年上半年的相对稳定性。研究中使用的小提琴图表明,在此期间,XRP的市场价格保持了强劲的支撑水平,特别是在0.52美元左右。

尽管存在波动,但加密货币表现出了弹性,价格保持在这些关键水平之上。2023年第三季度,XRP的平均价格为0.574美元,中位数价格为0.521美元。

然而,平均值上升至0.593美元,而中位数在2023年第四季度达到0.613美元,表明看涨趋势更强。这标志着XRP的波动性增加,导致价格迅速飙升。

XRP波动性| HashHub研究

与此同时,在2024年第一季度,随着整合的出现,平均价格和中位数分别小幅调整至0.577美元和0.575美元。2024年第二季度,出现了下降趋势,平均价格降至0.523美元,中位数降至0.518美元,表明势头减弱。

波动性可能上升可能引发XRP反弹

这些数据表明了一种普遍的稳定模式,XRP设法保持在关键支撑位之上。然而,如果这种模式重演,2024年最后一个季度可能会出现这种稳定性的转变。

历史数据支持这一预测,表明当XRP在过去进入波动性增加的时期时,价格会出现大幅波动。例如,在2023年第三季度,XRP的平均价格和中位数都出现了飙升,在此之前波动性明显增加。

Santiment的数据支持了这一观点。值得注意的是,XRP 4周波动率的上升在历史上与价格飙升相吻合。2017年12月,这一指标上升到0.62,导致XRP大幅增长。2021年4月,它飙升至0.47,与XRP价格上涨至1.96美元相吻合。

XRP价格波动| Santiment

XRP周线图和历史波动率

XRP的每周历史波动率(HV)进一步支持了价格飙升的可能性。HV指标衡量XRP价格随时间波动的程度。图表显示,XRP的HV仍处于较低水平。然而,历史数据表明,每当这种波动性飙升时,它往往先于价格上涨。

例如,2022年9月,XRP的HV大幅上涨导致价格在短短一周内上涨了37%。2023年7月也出现了类似的模式,在HV再次飙升后,XRP在一周内上涨了59%。

XRP 1W图表

与此同时,Chande Kroll Stop也表明XRP目前处于中性位置。然而,任何重大的市场走势都可能引发一种新的趋势,这与今年晚些时候波动性增加的预测是一致的。

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941 Total ViewsPublished 2024.04.01Updated 2024.12.03

What is XRP 2.0

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