以太坊长期清算触及2022年高点,是地平线上的牛市反弹

币界网Published on 2024-08-12Last updated on 2024-08-12

币界网报道:

以太坊最近的大幅下跌引发了投资者的一系列猜测,引发了人们对看跌趋势是否会持续的质疑。

然而,期货市场的新数据表明,由于交易所长期清算的重大变化,可能会出现逆转。CryptoQuant的最新数据突显了以太坊期货市场的一个重大清算事件,达到了自2022年11月以来的最高水平。

这些清算衡量的是由于价格下跌而被迫关闭长期永久头寸,这最近在所有交易所引发了一连串的清算。这一发展可能表明期货市场正处于冷却期,因为许多杠杆头寸已被清除。

CryptoQuant的分析师Shayan强调,这种重置通常可以稳定市场,为投资者重新燃起兴趣铺平道路。如果需求恢复,看涨飙升的可能性就会增加,因为重置期货市场往往会吸引新的买家。

历史背景

从历史上看,以太坊的价格下跌经常引发长期清算的大幅飙升。例如,1月份,价格下跌导致超过5000万美元的清算,随后迅速复苏。

同样,随着以太坊的价格在3月份跌至3200美元以下,清算额超过1.2亿美元,导致市场在反弹前大幅下跌。最近,在8月份,该图表显示,随着以太坊的价格跌至2100美元,清算激增超过1.6亿美元。

从本质上讲,随着杠杆交易员在最近的价格下跌中被淘汰,现货购买压力正在接管,ETH已反弹至2700美元的事实证明了这一点。

新兴购买兴趣?

关键技术指标表明,以太坊市场可能正在企稳,并有可能出现牛市。值得注意的是,需求指数目前略低于零,为-0.1,显示出趋于平稳和略有上升的迹象。这表明抛售压力可能正在减弱,买入兴趣开始重新出现。

源代码交易视图

此外,累积/分布指标呈上升趋势,目前值为1151.9万。这种稳定的积累表明,投资者一直在购买以太坊,这可能预示着价格的大幅波动。随着强有力的手收集资产,未来价格飙升的可能性增加。

撤资与看涨情绪形成对比

与这些潜在的看涨指标相比,链上数据呈现出更令人担忧的局面。以太坊的质押提款量急剧增加,仅本周就有超过122000个ETH从质押池中提款。

以太坊价格与ETH质押提款

这标志着自5月以来的最高提款水平,约为5.21亿美元。提款激增表明,随着投资者撤销以太坊,可能清算其持有的资产,抛售压力增加。市场供应的增加可能会对以太坊的价格造成下行压力,特别是在需求仍然疲软的情况下。

Trending Cryptos

Related Reads

Report Interpretation: J.P. Morgan Details Micron's Pre-Earnings Sentiment, Current Hardware Sector Dynamics

Morgan Stanley analyst Joshua Meyers' report (June 21, 2026) highlights key trends in the hardware and semiconductor sector ahead of Micron's earnings. The core takeaways are: 1. **Micron & Memory:** Memory remains a high-conviction long theme, driven by strong AI demand and rising ASPs. However, investor focus is shifting to the sustainability of Micron's >80% gross margins and the specifics of potential new long-term supply agreements (SCAs). 2. **Hardware Supply Chain:** AI-related demand for servers, networking, and storage remains robust, but company performance is diverging. Celestica (CLS) shows improved margin confidence, Western Digital and Seagate benefit from pricing, Fabrinet (FN) sees predictable AI optics growth, and Teradyne (TER) anticipates a new Google customer. 3. **AI Capex & WFE Forecasts:** JPMorgan increased its Wafer Fab Equipment (WFE) market growth forecasts to 28% in 2026 and 29% in 2027. AI infrastructure financing is evolving, with higher project-level debt reducing constraints on capex expansion. The report signals that while the AI-driven hardware cycle is strong, the market is entering a phase focused on execution verification (e.g., Micron's SCA details, Fabrinet's ramp with Amazon) and valuation sustainability. Key near-term signals include Micron's guidance, Arista Networks' outlook, and the pace of demand normalization post potential tariff-related pull-ins.

marsbit4h ago

Report Interpretation: J.P. Morgan Details Micron's Pre-Earnings Sentiment, Current Hardware Sector Dynamics

marsbit4h ago

Research Report Analysis: The Fed's New Chair's Debut – New Leader, But Same Script?

Report Analysis: Federal Reserve's New Chair Debut – A New Captain, But the Same Script? Morgan Stanley's chief global economist Seth B. Carpenter analyzes the first FOMC meeting under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh in a June 21 report. Warsh deliberately avoided providing forward guidance on interest rates, aligning with his philosophy. However, market expectations for a rate hike this year were reinforced. Key signals lie elsewhere: inflation may fall more than expected, and quantitative tightening (QT) could be more aggressive than anticipated. The FOMC's "dot plot" suggests only one rate hike in 2026. Carpenter argues that if inflation undershoots forecasts, the logic for even a single hike weakens, especially as projections indicate potential rate cuts in 2027. On QT, Warsh's stance is clear. Carpenter notes that measures like halving the Treasury's account balance could shrink the Fed's balance sheet by around $500 billion with minimal market impact. Combined with adjustments to reserve interest and liquidity rules, the ultimate QT scale may exceed expectations, though its market effect might be less disruptive unless the Fed actively sells Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS). While Warsh initiated a review of the Fed's policy framework, the 2% inflation target remains intact for now. The report concludes that the market may be overestimating the significance of reduced forward guidance and the near-term rate hike risk, while potentially underestimating the scope and manageable nature of the coming balance sheet reduction. The key debates will hinge on upcoming core PCE data, the specifics of the QT path, and the framework review's findings.

marsbit5h ago

Research Report Analysis: The Fed's New Chair's Debut – New Leader, But Same Script?

marsbit5h ago

Critical Game Week: BTC Retracement Confirmation vs. HYPE Support Battle | Guest Analysis

This weekly analysis outlines a critical juncture for BTC and HYPE markets, focusing on key price level confirmations. **BTC Analysis:** BTC is at a pivotal point after a five-wave rally from the June 5th low of $59,100. The price has broken below a short-term rising channel's lower boundary, with the current move seen as a pullback to test this breakdown. Failure to reclaim this level could lead to a retest of the $59,000-$60,000 support zone. The core scenario hinges on this channel retest outcome. * **Key Levels:** Resistance at $64,500-$65,000 (channel boundary) and $69,500-$70,500. Support at $59,000-$60,000 and $55,000. * **Strategy:** A core bearish stance is maintained (20% short from last week), with short-term plans for tactical trades. Three detailed contingency plans (A/B/C) are provided for short positions on resistance tests or breakdowns, emphasizing strict stop-loss discipline. **HYPE Analysis:** HYPE shows strong momentum but is currently in a corrective phase after hitting a new high of $76.94. The price is retesting the crucial $64-$66 support area. * **Key Levels:** Resistance near $77 and $80-$82. Support at $64-$66 and $52-$54. * **Strategy:** The short-term approach is "buy on dips, avoid chasing rallies." A long position is considered only if clear stabilization signals appear at the $64-$66 or deeper $52-$54 support zones, with tight risk controls. **General Risk Management:** A standardized trailing stop-loss protocol is emphasized: set initial stop, breakeven at +1% profit, then trail stops upward to lock in gains. *Disclaimer: All analysis is presented as a personal trading framework, not investment advice. Market conditions are complex and require dynamic adjustment.*

marsbit5h ago

Critical Game Week: BTC Retracement Confirmation vs. HYPE Support Battle | Guest Analysis

marsbit5h ago

Trading

Spot
Futures

Hot Articles

Discussions

Welcome to the HTX Community. Here, you can stay informed about the latest platform developments and gain access to professional market insights. Users' opinions on the price of ETH (ETH) are presented below.

活动图片