Galaxy：比特币期货基差飙升，市场乐观情绪再燃

长文源：区块律动Published on 2010-08-24Last updated on 2024-08-10

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Variant: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and ZCash Highly Likely to Become Major Stores of Value

At Variant, our investment philosophy centers on enabling individuals to own their money, identity, and data. We believe all tokens fall into two categories: stores of value (SOV) or equity-like instruments. The SOV framework is particularly useful for evaluating Layer 1 (L1) blockchains, which are major monetary coordination protocols. A good store of value should possess: 1) Technical durability, 2) Scarcity, 3) Censorship resistance, 4) Economic productivity, 5) Strong memetics, and 6) Liquidity. The total addressable market for SOV assets is massive, with gold alone valued at $31 trillion. Three L1 assets stand out as prime candidates for becoming major stores of value: Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and ZCash (ZEC). Bitcoin excels in memetic dominance as "digital gold." Ethereum demonstrates superior technical durability and adaptability through its upgradeable roadmap. ZCash offers exceptional censorship resistance and privacy via its shielded transactions. While digital SOVs outperform traditional ones like gold on many metrics, they still represent a small fraction of the overall SOV market, presenting a significant growth opportunity.

marsbit13m ago

Variant: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and ZCash Highly Likely to Become Major Stores of Value

marsbit13m ago

Can DeepSeek Save China One Trillion Dollars?

"DeepSeek and the $1 Trillion Infrastructure Question" The article examines whether DeepSeek's AI optimization breakthroughs could potentially save China $1 trillion in future AI infrastructure costs. The analysis begins with Nvidia's upcoming Vera Rubin AI platform, costing ~$7.8 million, where memory (HBM4/LPDDR5X) constitutes $2 million—a 435% cost increase in one year, highlighting how AI hardware spending is shifting toward expensive memory components. DeepSeek's approach works in the opposite direction. Through three key technical innovations showcased in DeepSeek V4, the company dramatically improves hardware efficiency: 1. **Memory Compression (MLA)**: Re-engineers the attention mechanism to compress long-context memory (KV Cache) by over 90%, drastically reducing expensive HBM usage. 2. **Selective Activation (MoE)**: Employs Mixture-of-Experts architecture where only a small fraction of parameters (e.g., 49B out of 1.6T in V4-Pro) are activated per token, allowing most parameters to reside in cheaper memory/SSD. 3. **Computation Caching**: Reuses previously computed results via cache hits, replacing expensive GPU computations with cheap memory reads. Combined, these optimizations allow the same hardware to produce approximately 4x more tokens, effectively reducing required hardware investment by 75%. DeepSeek's pricing reflects this: a 10-billion token workload costs ~$522 monthly versus ~$9,000-$10,000 for competitors. The $1 trillion savings projection stems from McKinsey's estimate that global AI infrastructure will require ~$5.2 trillion investment by 2030. As China's daily token consumption grows toward quadrillions, even marginal efficiency gains scale massively. With a conservative 4x throughput improvement, China could avoid building tens of thousands of AI data centers equivalent to ~7 trillion RMB ($1 trillion) in saved investment. Critically, this strategy shifts dependency from scarce, expensive GPU/HBM—where China lags—toward more accessible storage, caching, and systems engineering where domestic suppliers like CXMT are gaining strength. Rather than "replacing Nvidia," DeepSeek rebalances AI's value chain away from monolithic hardware dependency. Ultimately, DeepSeek's technical breakthroughs could lower the barrier to AI adoption across Chinese industries by making advanced capabilities affordable at scale—transforming who can access next-generation AI.

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Can DeepSeek Save China One Trillion Dollars?

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Overturning the Mainstream Approach to Hallucinations: Metacognition is the New Solution for Large Models to Break the Hallucination Barrier

This paper, "Hallucinations Undermine Trust; Metacognition is a Way Forward," proposes a paradigm shift in combating AI hallucination. It argues that the current mainstream approaches—striving for omniscience by scaling data/models or having AI abstain from uncertain answers—are fundamentally flawed. The former has inevitable knowledge gaps, while the latter imposes a crippling "utility tax," requiring the rejection of many correct answers to achieve high accuracy, due to models' poor "discrimination" (the ability to distinguish correct from incorrect answers internally). The core contribution is redefining hallucination not as "being wrong," but as "expressing false information with unwarranted certainty." The proposed solution is **Faithful Uncertainty** or **Metacognition**: enabling AI to accurately perceive its internal uncertainty and honestly express it in its language (e.g., using hedging phrases when unsure). This creates a more reliable assistant that provides useful information while signaling its confidence, minimizing harm from errors. The paper emphasizes that metacognition is critical for the era of AI Agents. Without it, Agents cannot intelligently decide when to use tools like search engines, leading to inefficiency and misuse. Key implementation challenges are highlighted: the "bootstrapping paradox" of training with static uncertainty data, the "alignment distortion signal" where human preference training suppresses internal uncertainty cues, and the difficulty of causally evaluating true metacognition vs. its superficial imitation. The paper concludes that the goal should not be an infallible AI, but one that is honest about the limits of its knowledge, thereby building user trust through transparent communication of its certainty.

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Overturning the Mainstream Approach to Hallucinations: Metacognition is the New Solution for Large Models to Break the Hallucination Barrier

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Hedge by Buying Gold and Oil, Chase Soaring Returns with AI. ‘Dated’ Bitcoin Enters a Bear Market

Bitcoin has recently declined, hitting a two-month low near $66,123, while Ethereum fell to a three-month low around $1,837. Analysts suggest the drop is not merely due to factors like ETF outflows or MicroStrategy's selling but reflects a deeper issue: Bitcoin is losing a broader asset competition. In a near-zero interest rate environment, Bitcoin previously thrived as an outlet for investor dissatisfaction with inflation and limited options. However, the market landscape has shifted. Bitcoin now occupies an "awkward middle ground," facing competition on three fronts. For inflation hedging, investors prefer gold, energy stocks, and commodity producers—assets with tangible backing and clearer pricing power. For growth exposure, AI-related companies with actual revenues and profits are more attractive. Even within crypto, investors can choose stablecoins, exchanges, or infrastructure firms tied directly to adoption, offering clearer business models and leverage. Thus, Bitcoin is no longer the top choice for hedging, growth, or crypto exposure. This shift is evident in market reactions: despite recent warnings about persistent inflation from a Fed official, Bitcoin did not rally as it might have in the past. Instead, capital flowed to assets with direct commodity or energy exposure. The recent ETF outflows and MicroStrategy sales are symptoms, not causes, of this new reality. Investors are becoming more selective, demanding clearer value propositions beyond mere scarcity. The emerging bear case for Bitcoin is not about it being a bubble or failed technology, but that scarcity alone is no longer sufficient.

华尔街日报21m ago

Hedge by Buying Gold and Oil, Chase Soaring Returns with AI. ‘Dated’ Bitcoin Enters a Bear Market

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Missed the AI Stock Surge, What to Do Now?

The article addresses investor anxiety over having missed the explosive, multi-year rally in AI stocks (e.g., NVIDIA, Micron, SK Hynix) across global markets. It notes that despite the broad bull run, data shows most retail investors lost money in 2025, and even major institutions like Bridgewater and Berkshire Hathaway significantly reduced holdings or held excessive cash, thereby missing substantial gains. The piece highlights common pitfalls: panic selling during corrections, misdirected investments into underperforming AI verticals, and premature profit-taking. It argues that AI represents a foundational, long-term technological shift comparable to electricity or the internet, implying the opportunity is not over. Citing figures like Jack Ma and Ma Huateng, the article suggests the AI wave is just beginning, with vast potential across the entire产业链, from infrastructure to applications. The conclusion advises against chasing trends blindly. Instead, it recommends a disciplined, long-term approach—focusing on one's own strengths within the expansive AI ecosystem to prepare for the next structural opportunities.

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Missed the AI Stock Surge, What to Do Now?

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What is $BITCOIN

DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN): A Comprehensive Analysis Introduction to DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a blockchain-based project operating on the Solana network, which aims to combine the characteristics of traditional precious metals with the innovation of decentralized technologies. While it shares a name with Bitcoin, often referred to as “digital gold” due to its perception as a store of value, DIGITAL GOLD is a separate token designed to create a unique ecosystem within the Web3 landscape. Its goal is to position itself as a viable alternative digital asset, although specifics regarding its applications and functionalities are still developing. What is DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a cryptocurrency token explicitly designed for use on the Solana blockchain. In contrast to Bitcoin, which provides a widely recognized value storage role, this token appears to focus on broader applications and characteristics. Notable aspects include: Blockchain Infrastructure: The token is built on the Solana blockchain, known for its capacity to handle high-speed and low-cost transactions. Supply Dynamics: DIGITAL GOLD has a maximum supply capped at 100 quadrillion tokens (100P $BITCOIN), although details regarding its circulating supply are currently undisclosed. Utility: While precise functionalities are not explicitly outlined, there are indications that the token could be utilized for various applications, potentially involving decentralized applications (dApps) or asset tokenization strategies. Who is the Creator of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? At present, the identity of the creators and development team behind DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) remains unknown. This situation is typical among many innovative projects within the blockchain space, particularly those aligning with decentralized finance and meme coin phenomena. While such anonymity may foster a community-driven culture, it intensifies concerns about governance and accountability. Who are the Investors of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? The available information indicates that DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) does not have any known institutional backers or prominent venture capital investments. The project seems to operate on a peer-to-peer model focused on community support and adoption rather than traditional funding routes. Its activity and liquidity are primarily situated on decentralized exchanges (DEXs), such as PumpSwap, rather than established centralized trading platforms, further highlighting its grassroots approach. How DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) Works The operational mechanics of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) can be elaborated on based on its blockchain design and network attributes: Consensus Mechanism: By leveraging Solana’s unique proof-of-history (PoH) combined with a proof-of-stake (PoS) model, the project ensures efficient transaction validation contributing to the network's high performance. Tokenomics: While specific deflationary mechanisms have not been extensively detailed, the vast maximum token supply implies that it may cater to microtransactions or niche use cases that are still to be defined. Interoperability: There exists the potential for integration with Solana’s broader ecosystem, including various decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms. However, the details regarding specific integrations remain unspecified. Timeline of Key Events Here is a timeline that highlights significant milestones concerning DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN): 2023: The initial deployment of the token occurs on the Solana blockchain, marked by its contract address. 2024: DIGITAL GOLD gains visibility as it becomes available for trading on decentralized exchanges like PumpSwap, allowing users to trade it against SOL. 2025: The project witnesses sporadic trading activity and potential interest in community-led engagements, although no noteworthy partnerships or technical advancements have been documented as of yet. Critical Analysis Strengths Scalability: The underlying Solana infrastructure supports high transaction volumes, which could enhance the utility of $BITCOIN in various transaction scenarios. Accessibility: The potential low trading price per token could attract retail investors, facilitating wider participation due to fractional ownership opportunities. Risks Lack of Transparency: The absence of publicly known backers, developers, or an audit process may yield skepticism regarding the project's sustainability and trustworthiness. Market Volatility: The trading activity is heavily reliant on speculative behavior, which can result in significant price volatility and uncertainty for investors. Conclusion DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) emerges as an intriguing yet ambiguous project within the rapidly evolving Solana ecosystem. While it attempts to leverage the “digital gold” narrative, its departure from Bitcoin's established role as a store of value underscores the need for a clearer differentiation of its intended utility and governance structure. Future acceptance and adoption will likely depend on addressing the current opacity and defining its operational and economic strategies more explicitly. Note: This report encompasses synthesised information available as of October 2023, and developments may have transpired beyond the research period.

363 Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

What is $BITCOIN

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