Frontier Lab加密市场周报|W31

Odaily星球日报Published on 2024-08-04Last updated on 2024-08-04

Abstract

Crypto市场本周重回下跌趋势,比特币本周跌幅较大,主要受到Mtgox赔偿分发事件的影响,以太坊实际波动幅度正在减弱,代表现货ETF“Sell News”的负面影响正在快速降低,这对远期价格有利。

BTC 及 ETH 本周概况

市场表现

Frontier Lab加密市场周报|W31

  • Crypto 市场本周重回下跌趋势;

  • 比特币本周跌幅较大,主要受到 Mtgox 赔偿分发事件的影响;

  • 以太坊实际波动幅度正在减弱,代表现货 ETF“Sell News”的负面影响正在快速降低,这对远期价格有利!

重点事件

Mtgox 赔付事件

  • 概况:Mtgox 破产赔付工作继续,本周继续从地址上转出 BTC 进入到交易所准备赔付,其地址上还剩余 32899 枚。

  • 分析:虽然在赔付计划开始时,BTC 价格并未出现大幅波动,但本周市场上出现了其他不确定性因素。随着这些因素的增多,市场购买力出现下降,Mtgox 赔付事件开始影响市场价格。

美联储议息会议

  • 概况:本周四美联储公布利率维持在 5.25% ,之后鲍威尔发言暗示 9 月份美联储可能降息。

  • 分析:本周美联储公布在 7 月份维持利率不变是符合市场预期的,之后鲍威尔的发言暗示 9 月份将要降息也是符合市场预期。所以在议息会议结束之后市场交易员已经完全定价了 9 月份将要降息, 并且将预期降息幅度由 25 个基点开始转为 50 个基点,从而美股市场开始上涨并且美债市场收益率全面下降。但是导致市场上本来就不充裕的流动性开始向债市和股市转移,从而 Crypto 市场的流动性开始被抽向其他市场,造成了 Crypto 市场流动性不足,购买力下降,出现了美股涨,币市跌的现象。

地缘战争升级

  • 概况: 7 月 31 日哈马斯最高领袖哈尼亚在伊朗德黑兰被空袭致死。

  • 分析:这一突发情况,使得本就动荡不安的中东局势的冲突在未来可能更加升级,普遍分析如果伊朗亲自下场的话,美国会被卷入到战争,从而当日在美股开盘之后都出现了不同程度的下跌。同时也因此造成了原油和黄金价格的短时内上升。

Altcoin 本周概况

整体表现

市场情绪本周下跌至 12% ,处于极度恐惧阶段,相较于上周的 42% 有明显的回撤,主要是由于各种宏观和政策因素的不确定性、地缘战争升级,以及 Mtgox 赔付事件的继续,尤其是美联储在暗示 9 月份降息之后市场的流动性开始流向美债和美股,这使得本来就不多的市场流动性被抽走,从而购市场买力下降。这些因素使 Altcoin 受到非常大的影响,投资者们开始规避风险,持观望的状态。

涨幅榜概况

过去一周市场代币涨幅前 5 名(未计入交易量过小的代币和 meme 币)

Frontier Lab加密市场周报|W31

数据来源:coinmarketcap

涨幅榜并未表现出“板块集中”的特征,上涨代币分散于各个板块,涨幅均低于上周。这表明本周 Altcoin 出现了大幅回调。

Meme 代币涨幅榜

Frontier Lab加密市场周报|W31

数据来源:coinmarketcap.com

本周大盘出现下跌的趋势,Meme 赛道本周表现较差,基本上整体都处于下跌的状态,只有三个代币在本周是呈上涨的态势。

社交媒体热点

根据 LunarCrush 每日增长前五和 Scopechat 中 AI 得分前五的数据得出本周(7.27-8.2)统计数据:

出现次数最多的题材是L1s,上榜代币情况如下(未计入交易量过小的代币和 meme 币):

Frontier Lab加密市场周报|W31

数据来源 lunarcrush 和 Scopechat

题材跟踪

Frontier Lab加密市场周报|W31

数据来源:SoSo Value

从上表中可以看出,按周回报率划分,表现最好的赛道是 SocialFi,表现最差的是 Meme。

SocialFi 赛道表现较好的原因是因为 SocialFi 赛道中发币的项目较少,其中 TON 占比是最大的,根据市值来看能够占据整个赛道比重的 93.62% ,本周 TON 没有跟随大盘下跌,处于比较强势的形态,本周上涨 2.41% ,本周 Crypto 的挣钱效应很差,用户们更喜欢关注 SocialFi 上的一些小项目,达到以小博大的目的。从年回报率来看,TON 更是高达 458.84% ,处于 SocialFi 赛道的绝对龙头。但是其余的 SocialFi 项目均处于下跌的趋势。

Meme 赛道在本周的行情中整体表现较差,在市值排名前 500 的 Meme 项目中仅有三个项目处于上涨,其余所有项目均处于下跌的态势。主要是因为本周大盘一直处于下跌的趋势,市场上用户们均处于避险的原因,尽量减少在市场中的投资然后对市场处于观望的状态,从而导致市场中的流动性较差,并且在大盘每次处于明显的下跌趋势时,Meme 赛道总是跌幅相较于其他赛道而言更大。

下周 Crypto 大事件预告

  • 周二(8 月 6 日)Asia Blockchain Summit;FTX 与美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)和解听证会;亚洲区块链高峰会

  • 周三(8 月 7 日)美国民主党将在 8 月 7 日前确定总统候选人

  • 周六(8 月 10 日)VeeCon 2024 

  • 周日(8 月 11 日)FORESIGHT 2024 香港峰会

下周展望

  • 比特币:Mtgox 赔付继续,目前地址上还剩下 32899 枚。由于近期宏观事件的不确定性增加,以及对美联储在 9 月份降息的完全定价,促使市场上本就不多的流动性开始从 Crypto 回流到美股以及美债,从而导致市场的购买力更加不足。因此,下周 BTC 大概率会继续维持宽幅震荡的趋势。

  • 以太坊:以太坊的现货 ETF 已获通过。市场投资者们继续“Sell the news”,灰度基金的 ETHE 仍然继续保持大量出售,虽然出售量相较于一开始有所下降,但是每天仍有 4 万余枚的出售,使得以太坊在短期内承受了较大的抛压,并且近期内因为市场流动性较差,对 ETH 的购买力并不高,加之市场整体情绪不高,因此出现了较大幅度的回调。

  • Altcoin:由于市场上诸多事件的不确定性增加,受到以太坊价格下降的影响较大,再加上大盘表现不佳,投资者情绪大幅回调,对各个代币的投资也变得更加谨慎。同时,市场上没有出现新的热点赛道或事件,因此下周 Altcoin 可能仍将依托大盘走势,不会出现独立行情。

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363 Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

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