Matrixport投研：看好BTC Q4行情

Odaily星球日报Published on 2024-08-02Last updated on 2024-08-02

Abstract

BTC交易区间正在收窄，预示着其或将很快突破盘整期。

Matrixport 研究院最新研究表示，

  • BTC Q4 行情预期良好，技术角度分析 BTC 有望突破盘整

  • 不排除央行可能会在未来 12 个月大幅降息

  • BTC 即将进入月度疲软期，特朗普可能拉动加密市场

BTC Q4 行情预期良好，技术角度分析 BTC 有望突破盘整

目前正处于第三季度中期，BTC 正在经历历史最具挑战性的一个季度。加上即将到来的疲弱时期，充满挑战的交易环境可能还将持续数周。不过，BTC 在第四季度的行情预期良好。

从技术角度来看，BTC 交易区间正在收窄，预示着其或将很快突破盘整期。基于美联储降息预期和第四季度利好，加上美国总统选举结果可能带来的助推力，不排除 BTC 或将在未来几周取得突破。

不排除央行可能会在未来 12 个月大幅降息

一如所料，美联储并没有调整利率。美联储主席鲍威尔曾表示，如果通胀按照预期发展，将有可能在九月会议上决定降息。我们的通胀模型也预测了 CPI 在未来 12 个月会逐渐下跌。美联储降息可能会持续几个季度，在每一次会议上降低 25 个基点。这将为 BTC 等风险资产提供流动性和刺激。

当前利率为 5.25% ，通胀率为 3.0% ，两者之差反应了美联储的限制性利率政策。这意味着央行可能会在未来 12 个月大幅降息。

BTC 即将进入月度疲软期，特朗普可能拉动加密市场

根据历史规律， 8 月的回报率走势通常会横盘，而 9 月会进入表现疲弱时期。出现这种周期规律可能有几个因素，包括夏日假期较低的交易量，以及交易者观望秋季经济指标和央行政策决定所带来的市场不确定性。

如果特朗普胜选，他即将采取的一系列政策和行动将有可能拉动加密资产市场。他的政府班子可能会采取对加密资产更有利的监管立场，从而减少监管不确定性，并且促进创新。

上述部分观点来自 Matrix on Target, 与我们联系获取 Matrix on Target 完整报告。

免责声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成投资建议。数字资产交易可能具有极大的风险和不稳定性。投资决策应在仔细考虑个人情况并咨询金融专业人士后做出。Matrixport 不对基于本内容所提供信息的任何投资决策负责。

Trending Cryptos

ctr
CitreaCTR
wstusdt
wrapped stUSDTWSTUSDT
apr
aPrioriAPR
ctx
Cryptex FinanceCTX
audio
AudiusAUDIO
mantra
MantraMANTRA
xvs
VenusXVS
waxl
AxelarWAXL
bill
Billions NetworkBILL
pyth
PYTH (Pyth)PYTH
rune
THORChainRUNE
velodrome
Velodrome FinanceVELODROME
brev
BrevisBREV
zrx
ZRX（0X）ZRX
cake
PancakeSwapCAKE

Related Reads

Semiconductor Stock Rebound: Is the Technical Correction Over or a Trend Reversal?

The core of recent semiconductor stock volatility is not about daily price swings, but rather the market questioning whether AI-driven semiconductor pricing has entered a new phase. Following a sharp sell-off in Korean stocks on June 23rd, led by Samsung and SK Hynix, a subsequent rebound is seen more as a technical positioning adjustment rather than a confirmed trend reversal. The key variable is HBM (High Bandwidth Memory), essential for AI chips. Its supply-demand imbalance granted memory makers significant pricing power. The current market focus is on whether this dynamic remains strong enough to justify elevated valuations. All eyes are on Micron's upcoming earnings report. The critical factor is not whether results meet already high expectations, but whether the company's guidance confirms that AI memory pricing power, order visibility, and future margins are still expanding. Micron's outlook will serve as a crucial test for the broader AI semiconductor chain, including Samsung, SK Hynix, and other infrastructure players. The recent bounce appears to be a pre-earnings positioning repair. For it to evolve into a sustained uptrend, concrete evidence is needed that the AI infrastructure expansion cycle's fundamentals—particularly for high-end memory—remain robust and can continue to surpass elevated market expectations. The risk is that strong demand alone may not be sufficient if future guidance hints at peaking momentum or increasing supply-side pressures.

marsbit14m ago

Semiconductor Stock Rebound: Is the Technical Correction Over or a Trend Reversal?

marsbit14m ago

Global Tech Stocks Plunge: Another Stress Test for the AI Bull Market

Global tech stocks plummeted in a sharp selloff on June 23, with South Korea's KOSPI index crashing nearly 10%, triggering a trading halt. The plunge was led by semiconductor giants Samsung and SK Hynix, dragging down major Asian and US tech indexes and levered ETFs. The immediate trigger was a confluence of three signals within 24 hours: 1) reports that SK Hynix was slowing HBM4 expansion, raising doubts about a key AI chip bottleneck; 2) profit-taking ahead of Micron's earnings report after its massive year-to-date rally; and 3) a warning from Korean regulators about the risks of single-stock leveraged ETFs. The selloff's severity was amplified by Korea's uniquely leveraged market structure: record-high retail margin debt, over $30 billion in volatile single-stock leveraged ETFs requiring daily rebalancing (which creates selling pressure during declines), and the surprising shift of the National Pension Service from a net buyer to a net seller. The event reignited debates about an AI bubble. Analysts differed on timing—some warned of imminent rupture, others saw a temporary liquidity-driven correction—but agreed that sky-high valuations, a shift to retail/leveraged buying, and rising rates created a fragile setup. The parallel steep drop in SpaceX's stock, alongside its massive debt raise for AI infrastructure, underscored a broader market shift from narrative-driven "infinite imagination" to a "return on investment" calculation phase. All eyes are now on Micron's upcoming earnings report, seen as a key test for the AI hardware trade's fundamental logic. A strong report could stabilize markets, while a miss could validate deeper fears. The episode serves as a stark warning: when a bull run becomes dependent on leveraged bets on a single narrative, a violent and rapid correction should not be a surprise. The core question for investors is how much drawdown they are willing to tolerate to stay invested.

marsbit16m ago

Global Tech Stocks Plunge: Another Stress Test for the AI Bull Market

marsbit16m ago

Ethereum Foundation Cuts 20% of Staff, 54 Depart: The Survival Logic Behind the Restructuring

The Ethereum Foundation (EF) has announced a major restructuring, resulting in the departure of 54 staff members, representing approximately 20% of its workforce. This reorganization is not merely a cost-cutting measure but a strategic refocusing. The EF will now concentrate its resources on what it deems critical and unique tasks, structured around five new operational clusters. The new structure comprises clusters dedicated to: the Protocol Layer (ensuring Ethereum's core properties like censorship resistance and security); the Access Layer (enabling trusted, non-intermediated user interactions); the User Layer (grounding decisions in real user needs and constraints); the Community Layer (representing EF's stance and building alliances); and the Institutional Layer (engaging with enterprises, governments, and academia to promote principled adoption). The foundation stated that the layoffs were a difficult but necessary step to align its organization and spending with its long-term mandate, insulating its core work from short-term market fluctuations. Affected employees were offered a severance package and transition support. The restructured EF emerges as a leaner and more focused organization, poised to prioritize the development and preservation of Ethereum's foundational promise of self-sovereignty. Further details on the new operational model are expected in the coming weeks.

marsbit19m ago

Ethereum Foundation Cuts 20% of Staff, 54 Depart: The Survival Logic Behind the Restructuring

marsbit19m ago

Talking About Returns But Not Collection? Goldfinch's Liquidation Sounds the Alarm for RWA Credit

Goldfinch, a crypto lending platform connecting investors with real-world borrowers, has proposed a full wind-down via governance proposal GIP-87. The plan would halt all new development, shut down its flagship Goldfinch Prime product, and allocate 150,000 USDC to manage the collection of outstanding loans. While the proposal is under community vote, it highlights a critical shift for the RWA (Real World Asset) lending sector: the transition from a growth phase focused on yields to a difficult recovery phase focused on collections. The proposal reveals that while the protocol's on-chain TVL is low, it still holds tens of millions in active, non-performing loans off-chain. This gap underscores that tokenizing debt makes tracking exposure transparent but does not simplify the offline, labor-intensive, and legally complex process of loan recovery. The case of the Lend East pool, where only an estimated 42% of a $10.15 million loan may be recovered, exemplifies the potential for significant investor losses. The wind-down plan forces token holders to govern not expansion but the maintenance of a debt collection system, including funding legal trust structures and preserving user access for repayments. This move starkly contrasts with the sector's typical narrative of rapid, AI-powered underwriting and high yields, exposing the often-overlooked necessity for robust borrower vetting, standardized disclosure, and sustainable collection mechanisms. Ultimately, Goldfinch's situation serves as a crucial stress test for the entire RWA lending space. It demonstrates that a platform's true resilience is tested not during capital deployment but during the protracted, costly, and uncertain process of recovering defaulted loans from real-world borrowers, a challenge blockchain transparency alone cannot solve.

Foresight News24m ago

Talking About Returns But Not Collection? Goldfinch's Liquidation Sounds the Alarm for RWA Credit

Foresight News24m ago

Meta Launches Prediction Market, Code-Named "Arena": Not Using Real Money, 3.56 Billion Daily Active Users Are Its Biggest Bargaining Chip

Meta, under the codename "Arena," is developing a standalone prediction market application, according to a June 23 report by The New York Times. Initially, the app will operate on a points-based system rather than real-money betting, though future integration of financial transactions is not ruled out. Meta plans to leverage its vast ecosystem of apps, boasting 3.56 billion daily active users, to distribute the product. The strategy aims to lower user acquisition costs and navigate regulatory complexities associated with real-money prediction markets, which are overseen by bodies like the CFTC. News of Meta's entry caused stock dips for established players like DraftKings and Robinhood, reflecting market concerns over Meta's potential to disrupt incumbents like Polymarket and Kalshi with its massive scale. The prediction market sector has seen explosive growth, with monthly trading volume on major platforms surging to approximately $24 billion as of April 2026. This marks Meta's second foray into the space, having launched and later shut down a similar virtual-points app called Forecast in 2020. While Arena poses a competitive threat to crypto-based platforms like Polymarket, its mainstream reach could also significantly expand the overall user base and awareness for prediction markets. The project remains in development with no public launch timeline, but its announcement has already impacted market sentiment.

marsbit29m ago

Meta Launches Prediction Market, Code-Named "Arena": Not Using Real Money, 3.56 Billion Daily Active Users Are Its Biggest Bargaining Chip

marsbit29m ago

Trading

Spot
Futures

Hot Articles

What is $BITCOIN

DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN): A Comprehensive Analysis Introduction to DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a blockchain-based project operating on the Solana network, which aims to combine the characteristics of traditional precious metals with the innovation of decentralized technologies. While it shares a name with Bitcoin, often referred to as “digital gold” due to its perception as a store of value, DIGITAL GOLD is a separate token designed to create a unique ecosystem within the Web3 landscape. Its goal is to position itself as a viable alternative digital asset, although specifics regarding its applications and functionalities are still developing. What is DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a cryptocurrency token explicitly designed for use on the Solana blockchain. In contrast to Bitcoin, which provides a widely recognized value storage role, this token appears to focus on broader applications and characteristics. Notable aspects include: Blockchain Infrastructure: The token is built on the Solana blockchain, known for its capacity to handle high-speed and low-cost transactions. Supply Dynamics: DIGITAL GOLD has a maximum supply capped at 100 quadrillion tokens (100P $BITCOIN), although details regarding its circulating supply are currently undisclosed. Utility: While precise functionalities are not explicitly outlined, there are indications that the token could be utilized for various applications, potentially involving decentralized applications (dApps) or asset tokenization strategies. Who is the Creator of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? At present, the identity of the creators and development team behind DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) remains unknown. This situation is typical among many innovative projects within the blockchain space, particularly those aligning with decentralized finance and meme coin phenomena. While such anonymity may foster a community-driven culture, it intensifies concerns about governance and accountability. Who are the Investors of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? The available information indicates that DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) does not have any known institutional backers or prominent venture capital investments. The project seems to operate on a peer-to-peer model focused on community support and adoption rather than traditional funding routes. Its activity and liquidity are primarily situated on decentralized exchanges (DEXs), such as PumpSwap, rather than established centralized trading platforms, further highlighting its grassroots approach. How DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) Works The operational mechanics of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) can be elaborated on based on its blockchain design and network attributes: Consensus Mechanism: By leveraging Solana’s unique proof-of-history (PoH) combined with a proof-of-stake (PoS) model, the project ensures efficient transaction validation contributing to the network's high performance. Tokenomics: While specific deflationary mechanisms have not been extensively detailed, the vast maximum token supply implies that it may cater to microtransactions or niche use cases that are still to be defined. Interoperability: There exists the potential for integration with Solana’s broader ecosystem, including various decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms. However, the details regarding specific integrations remain unspecified. Timeline of Key Events Here is a timeline that highlights significant milestones concerning DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN): 2023: The initial deployment of the token occurs on the Solana blockchain, marked by its contract address. 2024: DIGITAL GOLD gains visibility as it becomes available for trading on decentralized exchanges like PumpSwap, allowing users to trade it against SOL. 2025: The project witnesses sporadic trading activity and potential interest in community-led engagements, although no noteworthy partnerships or technical advancements have been documented as of yet. Critical Analysis Strengths Scalability: The underlying Solana infrastructure supports high transaction volumes, which could enhance the utility of $BITCOIN in various transaction scenarios. Accessibility: The potential low trading price per token could attract retail investors, facilitating wider participation due to fractional ownership opportunities. Risks Lack of Transparency: The absence of publicly known backers, developers, or an audit process may yield skepticism regarding the project's sustainability and trustworthiness. Market Volatility: The trading activity is heavily reliant on speculative behavior, which can result in significant price volatility and uncertainty for investors. Conclusion DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) emerges as an intriguing yet ambiguous project within the rapidly evolving Solana ecosystem. While it attempts to leverage the “digital gold” narrative, its departure from Bitcoin's established role as a store of value underscores the need for a clearer differentiation of its intended utility and governance structure. Future acceptance and adoption will likely depend on addressing the current opacity and defining its operational and economic strategies more explicitly. Note: This report encompasses synthesised information available as of October 2023, and developments may have transpired beyond the research period.

439 Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

What is $BITCOIN

Discussions

Welcome to the HTX Community. Here, you can stay informed about the latest platform developments and gain access to professional market insights. Users' opinions on the price of BTC (BTC) are presented below.

活动图片

Top Questions