Matrixport投研:看好BTC Q4行情

Odaily星球日报Published on 2024-08-02Last updated on 2024-08-02

Abstract

BTC交易区间正在收窄,预示着其或将很快突破盘整期。

Matrixport 研究院最新研究表示,

  • BTC Q4 行情预期良好,技术角度分析 BTC 有望突破盘整

  • 不排除央行可能会在未来 12 个月大幅降息

  • BTC 即将进入月度疲软期,特朗普可能拉动加密市场

BTC Q4 行情预期良好,技术角度分析 BTC 有望突破盘整

目前正处于第三季度中期,BTC 正在经历历史最具挑战性的一个季度。加上即将到来的疲弱时期,充满挑战的交易环境可能还将持续数周。不过,BTC 在第四季度的行情预期良好。

从技术角度来看,BTC 交易区间正在收窄,预示着其或将很快突破盘整期。基于美联储降息预期和第四季度利好,加上美国总统选举结果可能带来的助推力,不排除 BTC 或将在未来几周取得突破。

不排除央行可能会在未来 12 个月大幅降息

一如所料,美联储并没有调整利率。美联储主席鲍威尔曾表示,如果通胀按照预期发展,将有可能在九月会议上决定降息。我们的通胀模型也预测了 CPI 在未来 12 个月会逐渐下跌。美联储降息可能会持续几个季度,在每一次会议上降低 25 个基点。这将为 BTC 等风险资产提供流动性和刺激。

当前利率为 5.25% ,通胀率为 3.0% ,两者之差反应了美联储的限制性利率政策。这意味着央行可能会在未来 12 个月大幅降息。

BTC 即将进入月度疲软期,特朗普可能拉动加密市场

根据历史规律, 8 月的回报率走势通常会横盘,而 9 月会进入表现疲弱时期。出现这种周期规律可能有几个因素,包括夏日假期较低的交易量,以及交易者观望秋季经济指标和央行政策决定所带来的市场不确定性。

如果特朗普胜选,他即将采取的一系列政策和行动将有可能拉动加密资产市场。他的政府班子可能会采取对加密资产更有利的监管立场,从而减少监管不确定性,并且促进创新。

上述部分观点来自 Matrix on Target, 与我们联系获取 Matrix on Target 完整报告。

免责声明:市场有风险,投资需谨慎。本文不构成投资建议。数字资产交易可能具有极大的风险和不稳定性。投资决策应在仔细考虑个人情况并咨询金融专业人士后做出。Matrixport 不对基于本内容所提供信息的任何投资决策负责。

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