比特币破新高为什么这么难？

链捕手Published on 2024-07-30Last updated on 2024-07-30

作者：1912212.eth，Foresight News

 

昨晚 9 时，BTC 在短暂突破 7 万美元之后，随即便被当头棒喝，四小时线跌幅达 2.12%，最终在 6.7 万美元附近企稳。BTC 在盘整数小时之后，今晨 6 时许，BTC 再次迎来一波下跌，最低触及 65862 美元，企稳后在 6.7 万美元上下徘徊。

受 BTC 表现拖累，ETH 也从 3500 美元上方跌落至最低 3087 美元，现回升至 3300 美元附近。山寨币表现普跌。过去 24 小时，全网爆仓 1.68 亿美元，多单爆仓 1.44 亿美元。

本月，德国抛售 BTC 的利空消息被消化之后，市场因川普遇刺以及美国大选而戏剧性开始上涨。从月中的 5.8 万美元升至 6.8 万美元附近，在川普为大选宣布各类比特币相当利好观点后，市场一度回落。但没过多久，利率市场普遍预估美联储会在 9 月进行年内首次降息，BTC 现货 ETF 数据持续净流入，一系列消息利好影响下，BTC 随后便再次开始向上冲击，就在 BTC 突破 7 万美元，距离 3 月份创下的 73777 美元历史高点近在咫尺之时，市场再度受挫走势向下，BTC 价格创新高为什么这么难？

全网 BTC 合约持仓数据创新高，往往是 BTC 短期高点

7 月 29 日下午 6 时，据 Coinglass 数据显示，全网比特币合约持仓量一度达到 394.6 亿美元，创下了历史新高。仅仅 3 小时后，BTC 冲破 7 万美元后开始大幅回落。

合约数据在一定程度上代表市场资金对后市的走势看法，合约数据创历史新高，代表市场在短期过于一致极其看好 BTC 短期走势，不断加杠杆，因此往往迎来回调，以清洗筹码，轻装前行。

2024 年 3 月 4 日、3 月 13 日、3 月 29 日、6 月 7 日，其 BTC 合约数据均在当天创下数据高点，如果再对比一下当天的 BTC 价格，可明显发现即在价格高点处。

以太坊现货 ETF 净流入不敌灰度流出

回看 BTC 现货 ETF 通过之后，BTC 价格也曾迎来一段时间的回落。历史也同样发生在以太坊上，就在市场以为其流入数据将会因不支持质押收益等而表现惨淡之时，其上线首周就吸引了 11.83 亿美元的资金流入。

不过 Grayscale Ethereum Trust（ETHE）流出 15.13 亿美元，这直接导致其以太坊 ETF 现货在计入该数据之后，总体净流出为 3.38 亿美元。

ETH 价格也在从 2800 美元上扬至 3562 美元，小幅回落至 3300 美元附近。

Mt.Gox 赔偿已开启，巨额抛压引市场担忧

7 月 24 日，Mt.Gox 还将 61,558.9 枚 BTC（约合 38.94 亿美元）转入执行赔付分发的交易平台。而进入 Bitbank、SBI VC Trade、Kraken 的 51,342.8 枚 BTC（32.18 亿美元）已经完成了向债权人的赔付分发。

当天晚些时候，Bitstamp 也开始为 Mt.Gox 债权人分发 1.02 万枚 BTC，约合 6.76 亿美元。隔日，便有用户声称已收到其赔付。

大部分被动锁仓的用户，虽然得到币的数量上变少，但因其 BTC 价格在过去十年不断飙涨，在突然收获如此巨额赔付之后，大概率仍会有相当一部分用户选择卖出获利。

今日早间，Mt.Gox 地址又向一新建地址转账 0.02 枚 BTC，或为转账测试，将继续进行赔付行动。可以预料，赔付在未彻底结束之前，市场仍将受其巨额抛压的负面阴影。

美司法部地址巨额转账上演托管 or 抛售悬疑

7 月 28 日，川普在比特币 2024 大会上做演讲表示，若当选总统，美国将不卖出（100% 保留）任何一枚比特币，并作为战略性比特币储备。川普所称的 BTC 即为政府在丝绸之路中没收的数万枚 BTC。

近日，Arkham Intelligence 的区块链数据显示，一个标记为美国政府：丝绸之路司法部的钱包将 29,800 BTC 转移到新地址。随后，该地址又将 19,800 BTC 和 10,000 BTC 转发到两个不同的地址。

Arkham 分析师预测，其中一笔价值 6.7 亿美元的 10,000 BTC 转账是向机构托管或服务机构存入的存款。彭博高级 ETF 分析师 James Seyffart 猜测，此次转移可能是钱包整理，对收缴比特币进行托管。

目前为止，这些存入的 BTC 到底是被托管还是抛售，市场参与者的看法莫衷一是，但对行情的负面影响仍然在发挥作用。

未来市场走势

QCP Capital ：市场需要更大催化剂才能出现重大突破

QCP Capital 在官方频道发文称，尽管在特朗普的比特币会议演讲期间比特币价格出现波动，但市场并未如期望的那样剧烈波动。比特币价格维持在 67,000 美元至 70,000 美元之间，波动性大幅下降。

特朗普的演讲呼应了行业预期，但市场可能需要更大的催化剂才能出现重大突破。这个催化剂可能会在美国大选临近时，当承诺和政策更加明确时出现。尽管特朗普发表了乐观言论，比特币未能突破其历史最高点，因此比特币可能会继续在一个区间内交易。

GSR 联席首席执行官：山寨币将会卷土重来而且会强势回归

加密做市商 GSR 联席首席执行官兼联合创始人 Rich Rosenblum 在社交媒体发文表示，每次比特币上涨时，我肩膀上的山寨币天使都会喊道：山寨币季来了。而山寨币小恶魔则讽刺地回应：这次不行……山寨币在这种监管环境下无法上涨。天使则说：团队和技术现在都好多了，山寨币会找到办法突围的。这是山寨币小恶魔第一次保持沉默。

比特币的市场主导地位在本月内一直在上升，BTC 可能继续引领牛市周期的下一阶段（或者更确切地说，SOL，即最快的马）。但这是我最有信心的一次，山寨币将会卷土重来，而且会强势回归。

Real Vision 创始人：比特币即将突破巨大的杯柄形态，并进入香蕉区间

高盛前高管、宏观研究机构 Real Vision 创始人 Raoul Pal 在社交媒体发文表示，「比特币即将突破巨大的杯柄形态，并进入香蕉区间。」

Raoul Pal 此前曾表示，「香蕉区间」是 Arthur Hayes 和其经常谈论的一个概念。这是一个周期性很强的阶段，当流动性进入市场，央行需要为所有债务再融资时，用糖果讨好人民。此时，加密货币通常会垂直上涨。这是由宏观经济力量推动的债务再融资周期，影响所有资产价格，但加密货币表现尤其突出。所以最简单的方法就是不要搞砸了。保持一个核心投资组合，大部分资产配置在主要的加密货币中。如果你能在其他资产上做对，你可以在那 10-20% 的投资组合中赚到很多钱，这部分资产风险更高但回报也更大。

BRN 首席分析师：比特币将迎来强劲的上涨，达到新的高点

数字资产研究公司 BRN 首席分析师 Valentin Fournier 表示，除了积累挖矿奖励外，矿业公司似乎还直接从市场上购买比特币以增加储备。他们触发了 Hash Ribbon 信号，这是一种长期看涨指标，显示矿工投降的结束和用于挖掘比特币的处理能力的增加。

Fournier 表示，矿工的近期行为表明他们对比特币的长期价值充满信心。鉴于这种积累行为，Fournier 补充说，交易员将倾向于继续投资于这种顶级加密货币，并引用了一系列强劲的催化因素。周五发布的更低的 PCE 数据、特朗普在 2024 年比特币大会上的讲话、以及来自门头沟 Mt. Gox 和 Grayscale ETF 的抛售压力减轻，都表明比特币将迎来强劲的上涨，达到新的高点。

10x Research：8 月 1 日的美联储利率决议和 8 月 14 日的 CPI 报告将至关重要

10x Research 在社交媒体上发文表示，根据历史数据分析，比特币的回报率在 8 月份趋于平缓，9 月份则有所下降。然而，美国利率政策的利好因素、利率下降和选举日程可能会缓冲 8 月份 10 亿美元代币解锁的任何下行压力。比特币的主导地位正在创造这个周期的新高，并产生了显著的影响。

其认为，预计比特币最终会突破新高，但比特币可能需要「宏观」的帮助，8 月 1 日的美联储利率决议和 8 月 14 日的 CPI 报告将至关重要。

Trending Cryptos

ctr
CitreaCTR
wstusdt
wrapped stUSDTWSTUSDT
apr
CapricornAPR
ctx
Cryptex FinanceCTX
audio
AudiusAUDIO
comp
CompoundCOMP
mantra
MantraMANTRA
waxl
AxelarWAXL
bill
Billions NetworkBILL
pyth
PYTH (Pyth)PYTH
rune
THORChainRUNE
brev
BrevisBREV
zrx
ZRX（0X）ZRX
cake
PancakeSwapCAKE
dos
DAPPOSDOS

Related Reads

Anthropic Eyes 'Training Chips'? Reportedly Considered Acquiring AI Chip Company MatX for $7 Billion

AI giant Anthropic reportedly discussed acquiring AI chip startup MatX for approximately $7 billion to accelerate its in-house chip development, specifically targeting "training chips" for large language models. This move follows OpenAI's recent unveiling of its own inference chip, "Jalapeño," highlighting a growing trend of major AI companies vertically integrating into hardware. However, the MatX deal was ultimately abandoned, with talks shifting toward potential collaboration instead. Anthropic's interest in MatX, a company founded in 2023 by former Google TPU engineers, underscores its strategic push to secure faster and more cost-efficient computing power for its Claude model. The company's broader chip ambitions are further evidenced by its recruitment of key industry veterans, including former Google TPU leader Amir Salek and ex-OpenAI chip engineer Clive Chan, to build an internal chip team. Anthropic is also actively meeting with several other AI chip startups to evaluate different architectures. Despite this significant investment in chip design capabilities, Anthropic reportedly plans to maintain a multi-vendor strategy, continuing its partnerships with major suppliers like Nvidia and Google. Developing advanced chips remains a costly and time-intensive endeavor, making the acquisition of an established startup like MatX an attractive, though currently unrealized, shortcut to gain expertise and potentially reduce long-term costs.

marsbit37m ago

Anthropic Eyes 'Training Chips'? Reportedly Considered Acquiring AI Chip Company MatX for $7 Billion

marsbit37m ago

Fed Chair Warsch 'Hawkish', Goldman Still Not Buying a 'September Hike', JPMorgan Says 'Still Have to See August Jobs and CPI'

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh struck a more hawkish tone in his Jackson Hole speech, emphasizing that inflation remains the Fed's "primary focus." He expressed concern that underlying price trends have not shown substantial improvement, citing data showing a high proportion of PCE basket items with price increases above 3%. While the speech pushed market-implied odds of a September rate hike above 50%, major Wall Street banks remain unconvinced. Both JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs maintain that a September hike is not their base case. JPMorgan's economists see the upcoming August nonfarm payrolls and CPI reports as the critical data points for the September decision, and the bank maintains its forecast for a December hike. Goldman Sachs expects core inflation to rise around 0.2% month-over-month in August, a pace they believe would keep the FOMC on hold. They suggest a September move would only be likely if the August CPI and PPI data come in significantly stronger than expected. In his remarks, Warsh clarified two controversial points from July, affirming the Fed's commitment to its 2% inflation target and identifying the short-term interest rate as the primary policy tool. He also described the economy as "impressive" and current broad financial conditions as not restrictive.

marsbit42m ago

Fed Chair Warsch 'Hawkish', Goldman Still Not Buying a 'September Hike', JPMorgan Says 'Still Have to See August Jobs and CPI'

marsbit42m ago

Weekly Editor's Picks (0822-0828)

**Weekly Editor's Picks (Aug 22-28)** **Theme:** This weekly digest curates in-depth analysis from the fast-moving information flow, filtering noise to deliver insights. **Macro & Geopolitics** * **US Treasury Strategy:** Wall Street expects potential signals in November regarding future borrowing through more short-term bills and notes, alongside expanded bond buybacks to ease long-term yield pressure. A direct cut in long-term bond issuance is also a rising possibility. * **Gold Outlook:** Goldman Sachs sees fundamental buying, ETF inflows, and options activity driving gold above $4,600/oz. They maintain a year-end target of $4,900, noting potential upside from increased macro hedging demand. Options positions could amplify moves in either direction. **Investment & Crypto** * **Arthur Hayes Interview:** The BitMEX co-founder argues crypto is the primary release valve for central bank liquidity. He predicts ETH could reach $30,000 and sees FLOP potentially surpassing ETH. The Clarity Act is criticized as harmful to US crypto innovation. He views war as the biggest market risk. * **Crypto Leverage Plays:** Analysis of crypto-correlated stocks (MSTR, COIN, etc.) during BTC's 24% weekly surge, ranking their leverage and risk profiles. * **Altcoin Season:** The altcoin market cap surpassed $1 trillion, with 92% of tokens rising. The rally is becoming more fundamentals-driven. * **ZEC & TAO ETFs:** Zcash hit an 8-year high, fueled by Grayscale's progress in converting its Zcash Trust to a spot ETF. A similar "trust-to-ETF" path is noted for Bittensor (TAO). * **Tokenomics Shifts:** Hyperliquid (HYPE) activated a new revenue stream for buybacks. Ethena (ENA) announced a buyback of locked VC tokens and canceled future monthly unlocks, significantly reducing sell-side pressure. **AI & Semiconductors** * **NVIDIA Earnings:** Approaching $100B in quarterly revenue, with growth potentially continuing at 70% next year. Demand is broadening beyond major cloud providers. Supply remains a constraint. * **SK Hynix:** A technical and fundamental analysis following a significant pullback. The company announced a major share buyback. Key risks include competition from Samsung and high stock volatility. **CeFi & DeFi** * **DeFi Picks:** Highlights protocols with strong revenue metrics (UNI, AAVE, JUP, etc.) as potential opportunities. * **Crypto Credit Lines:** Galaxy Digital launched a credit line product allowing users to borrow against BTC, ETH, and SOL portfolios at 8.99% APR, targeting holders needing liquidity without selling assets. **Ethereum & Scaling** * **BitMine's ETH Holdings:** The public company is nearing a 5% stake in all ETH. Analysis discusses the lack of direct network control but highlights concentration risks, regulatory implications, and the company's leveraged bet on a single asset. Fundstrat's Tom Lee suggests buying won't stop at 5% and sees a $10,000 price target for ETH. **Other Notable Topics** * **Meme Coin Drama:** The cycle of rumors, pumps, and dumps around potential "Trump-themed" tokens. * **SOL Burn Proposal:** A vote could significantly increase the daily SOL burn rate. * **Security Incident:** A high-profile Chinese influencer alleged a multi-million dollar crypto scam. * **Weekly Recap:** Key events included BTC reclaiming $80k, speculation about crypto trading on X, and significant altcoin market cap growth.

marsbit51m ago

Weekly Editor's Picks (0822-0828)

marsbit51m ago

Strive Executive: Rethinking the Bitcoin Price Flywheel

"Strive Executive: Rethinking Bitcoin's Price Flywheel" Bitcoin's maturation process may not follow a simple trend of ever-shrinking returns, as suggested by its long-term power-law trajectory. Instead, a multi-stage "flywheel" effect could emerge, driven by falling volatility. In its early stages, Bitcoin exhibited extreme returns and high volatility, limiting large-scale investment and its use as collateral. As it matures (Stage 2), both returns and volatility decline, improving its risk-adjusted returns. While this seems to point toward diminishing gains, it crucially enhances Bitcoin's appeal to institutional capital and its quality as collateral for loans. Lower volatility allows existing investors to allocate more capital without increasing portfolio risk. More importantly, it significantly increases the amount of debt the system can safely issue against Bitcoin holdings. With shallower potential drawdowns, lenders can extend more credit against the same collateral value, making leveraged Bitcoin accumulation strategies more feasible and resilient. This sets the stage for Stage 3: a self-reinforcing cycle. Improved fundamentals attract more equity capital. Simultaneously, Bitcoin's enhanced collateral status enables the expansion of dollar-denominated credit (e.g., bank loans, bonds) used to acquire more Bitcoin. Fixed Bitcoin supply meets growing demand from both equity and newly created debt, potentially reigniting price acceleration. Thus, the very process of maturation—declining volatility—creates the conditions for a capital and credit flywheel. This could push Bitcoin's USD price to break above its historical power-law trend, analogous to the final, rapid failure stage in a metal fatigue curve where the stressed "material" is the fiat credit system itself.

marsbit1h ago

Strive Executive: Rethinking the Bitcoin Price Flywheel

marsbit1h ago

Breaking News: OpenAI Completely Cuts Off Cursor

OpenAI has announced it will completely terminate its direct model supply to Cursor, the AI-powered code editor, on November 12. This decision follows the acquisition of Cursor by SpaceX (and thus Elon Musk) in a $60 billion deal two weeks prior. OpenAI cites Musk's history of contractual violations as the core reason, including past instances where xAI (now part of SpaceX) used OpenAI data for model training against terms of service. The move severs Cursor's official bundled access to OpenAI models like GPT. Crucially, it also explicitly excludes access to OpenAI's upcoming, highly capable "Astra" model, which is considered a strategic asset. Developers can continue using OpenAI models within Cursor by supplying their own API key, but this shifts costs from a bundled subscription to a direct, usage-based payment model, effectively raising prices for heavy users. Cursor's CEO confirmed negotiations are ongoing and emphasized Cursor's long-standing relationship with OpenAI, framing the decision as a departure from OpenAI's claimed platform neutrality. The article frames this event as part of a broader industry trend where model providers (like OpenAI and Anthropic) are increasingly cutting off integrated access to their models in tools owned by competitors or entities they distrust. The conclusion is that control over the foundational AI models has become the ultimate source of power, deciding who gets access to the most advanced capabilities.

marsbit1h ago

Breaking News: OpenAI Completely Cuts Off Cursor

marsbit1h ago

Trading

Spot

Hot Articles

What is $BITCOIN

DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN): A Comprehensive Analysis Introduction to DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a blockchain-based project operating on the Solana network, which aims to combine the characteristics of traditional precious metals with the innovation of decentralized technologies. While it shares a name with Bitcoin, often referred to as “digital gold” due to its perception as a store of value, DIGITAL GOLD is a separate token designed to create a unique ecosystem within the Web3 landscape. Its goal is to position itself as a viable alternative digital asset, although specifics regarding its applications and functionalities are still developing. What is DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a cryptocurrency token explicitly designed for use on the Solana blockchain. In contrast to Bitcoin, which provides a widely recognized value storage role, this token appears to focus on broader applications and characteristics. Notable aspects include: Blockchain Infrastructure: The token is built on the Solana blockchain, known for its capacity to handle high-speed and low-cost transactions. Supply Dynamics: DIGITAL GOLD has a maximum supply capped at 100 quadrillion tokens (100P $BITCOIN), although details regarding its circulating supply are currently undisclosed. Utility: While precise functionalities are not explicitly outlined, there are indications that the token could be utilized for various applications, potentially involving decentralized applications (dApps) or asset tokenization strategies. Who is the Creator of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? At present, the identity of the creators and development team behind DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) remains unknown. This situation is typical among many innovative projects within the blockchain space, particularly those aligning with decentralized finance and meme coin phenomena. While such anonymity may foster a community-driven culture, it intensifies concerns about governance and accountability. Who are the Investors of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? The available information indicates that DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) does not have any known institutional backers or prominent venture capital investments. The project seems to operate on a peer-to-peer model focused on community support and adoption rather than traditional funding routes. Its activity and liquidity are primarily situated on decentralized exchanges (DEXs), such as PumpSwap, rather than established centralized trading platforms, further highlighting its grassroots approach. How DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) Works The operational mechanics of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) can be elaborated on based on its blockchain design and network attributes: Consensus Mechanism: By leveraging Solana’s unique proof-of-history (PoH) combined with a proof-of-stake (PoS) model, the project ensures efficient transaction validation contributing to the network's high performance. Tokenomics: While specific deflationary mechanisms have not been extensively detailed, the vast maximum token supply implies that it may cater to microtransactions or niche use cases that are still to be defined. Interoperability: There exists the potential for integration with Solana’s broader ecosystem, including various decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms. However, the details regarding specific integrations remain unspecified. Timeline of Key Events Here is a timeline that highlights significant milestones concerning DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN): 2023: The initial deployment of the token occurs on the Solana blockchain, marked by its contract address. 2024: DIGITAL GOLD gains visibility as it becomes available for trading on decentralized exchanges like PumpSwap, allowing users to trade it against SOL. 2025: The project witnesses sporadic trading activity and potential interest in community-led engagements, although no noteworthy partnerships or technical advancements have been documented as of yet. Critical Analysis Strengths Scalability: The underlying Solana infrastructure supports high transaction volumes, which could enhance the utility of $BITCOIN in various transaction scenarios. Accessibility: The potential low trading price per token could attract retail investors, facilitating wider participation due to fractional ownership opportunities. Risks Lack of Transparency: The absence of publicly known backers, developers, or an audit process may yield skepticism regarding the project's sustainability and trustworthiness. Market Volatility: The trading activity is heavily reliant on speculative behavior, which can result in significant price volatility and uncertainty for investors. Conclusion DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) emerges as an intriguing yet ambiguous project within the rapidly evolving Solana ecosystem. While it attempts to leverage the “digital gold” narrative, its departure from Bitcoin's established role as a store of value underscores the need for a clearer differentiation of its intended utility and governance structure. Future acceptance and adoption will likely depend on addressing the current opacity and defining its operational and economic strategies more explicitly. Note: This report encompasses synthesised information available as of October 2023, and developments may have transpired beyond the research period.

2.4k Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

What is $BITCOIN

Discussions

Welcome to the HTX Community. Here, you can stay informed about the latest platform developments and gain access to professional market insights. Users' opinions on the price of BTC (BTC) are presented below.

活动图片

Top Questions