未来4年加密政策指引，梳理特朗普的2024比特币大会演讲核心看点

Odaily星球日报Published on 2024-07-23Last updated on 2024-07-23

Abstract

由于特朗普有极大概率成为下一任美国总统，市场普遍认为其将会在本次演讲中透露更详细的关于加密货币的政策指引。因此我做了一些关于比特币大会的背景，以及市场对于特朗普本次演讲的核心关切的调研与总结，与大家分享。

原文作者：@Web3 Mario（https://x.com/web3_mario）

这段时间笔者正在设计并开发一个很有趣的社交裂变相关的 TON mini app，所以更新稍慢，还请大家见谅。不过笔者依然会对时事新闻保持关注，我认为本周六有一件非常重要的，具有指引性的事件值得被重视，那就是特朗普将要在 2024 纳什维尔比特币大会上进行公开演讲。由于特朗普有极大概率成为下一任美国总统，市场普遍认为其将会在本次演讲中透露更详细的关于加密货币的政策指引。因此我做了一些关于比特币大会的背景，以及市场对于特朗普本次演讲的核心关切的调研与总结，与大家分享。

比特币大会究竟是什么来头

对于刚刚入圈的小伙伴们，可能对比特币大会颇感陌生和疑惑，因为比特币是一个开源协议，并没有一个商业主体负责，而比特币大会看名字像是一个官方会议，那么又是由谁负责策划与主办呢？因此我们首先先来介绍一下比特币大会的背景。

本次特朗普要参加的比特币大会（Bitcoin Conference）指的是由比特币杂志（Bitcoin Magazine）主办的关于比特币及相关技术与应用发展的年度会议。在此之前的一些年份虽也举行过一些同名会议，但主办方并不相同，这也是因为比特币协议并不隶属与某个商业主题，而是被开源社区共有，所以在会议命名上也就相对的宽松很多。

最早的名为比特币大会要追溯到 2013 年，是由比特币基金会（Bitcoin Foundation）主办，这是一个非盈利组织，旨在推广比特币协议，而后陆续有一些商业主体主办过同名会议，但影响力并不是很大。直到 2019 年，比特币杂志所隶属的比特币公司（BTC Inc.）开始主办年度比特币会议，会议规格，会议嘉宾的影响力，参会人数规模等开始有了质的提升，并逐渐被加密社区认可，所以在现在的语义下，“比特币大会”通常指的是 BTC Inc.从 2019 年开始举办的年度会议。

说起 BTC Inc.可能大家会有些陌生，但是其旗下的比特币杂志，相比大部分人都听说过，这是一个最早也是最具影响力的比特币新闻和信息来源之一，专注于比特币及其背后的区块链技术和相关行业。该杂志于 2012 年由 Vitalik Buterin 和 Mihai Alisie 共同创立。创刊初期，V神号称每周花费 10 至 20 小时撰写文章，而 Alisie 则在罗马尼亚进行编辑工作。而 BTC Inc.与 2015 年初收购了比特币杂志，成为了其实际所有者与运营方。

BTC Inc.这家公司成立于 2014 年，是一家总部位于美国田纳西州纳什维尔的公司，专注于区块链和加密货币的媒体和技术解决方案。它的业务包括出版物、会议和技术平台，旨在推动比特币和区块链技术的发展和采用。除了比特币杂志外，旗下的比特币媒体（BTC Media）也是行业内颇具影响力的媒体平台。其创始人大卫·贝利（David Bailey）是加密货币和区块链行业的知名人物。作为早期加密货币布道者之一，其为行业发展也贡献了很大的力量。

说回到比特币大会，自 2019 年由 BTC Inc.主办之后，有哪些亮点呢，我来做一个简单的盘点和回顾：

1. Bitcoin 2019 （旧金山）

  • 时间： 2019 年 6 月

  • 亮点：重点讨论了比特币的技术改进和扩展性问题。此次会议还涉及了比特币的监管问题和未来发展方向。

2. Bitcoin 2021 （迈阿密）

  • 时间： 2021 年 6 月

  • 亮点：这是规模最大的一次大会，吸引了超过 12, 000 名与会者。演讲者包括推特 CEO 杰克·多西（Jack Dorsey）和迈克罗策略（MicroStrategy）CEO 迈克尔·塞勒（Michael Saylor）。萨尔瓦多总统 Nayib Bukele 通过视频演讲宣布计划将比特币作为法定货币。

3. Bitcoin 2022 （迈阿密）

  • 时间： 2022 年 4 月

  • 亮点：有超过 35, 000 名与会者， 450 多位演讲者，包括知名投资者和思想领袖如彼得·泰尔（Peter Thiel）、乔丹·彼得森（Jordan Peterson）和塞雷娜·威廉姆斯（Serena Williams）。大会还包括比特币音乐节（Sound Money Fest），展示了比特币在艺术和文化领域的影响。

4. Bitcoin 2023 （迈阿密）

  • 时间： 2023 年 5 月

  • 亮点：会议继续探讨比特币的技术和市场发展，包括去中心化金融（DeFi）和比特币的全球采用策略。与会者包括加密货币领域的领导者和创新者。

马上要到来的 2024 比特币大会将在美国田纳西州纳什维尔举办，与会的演讲人员相比于以往几届，政界色彩更浓，特别是特朗普的演讲，因此被市场普遍认为会有很多未来美国加密政策的指引信息，所以指的重点关注。那么具体需要核心关注哪些点呢，我有些自己的看法与大家分享。

市场普遍押注特朗普将在本次比特币大会中宣布更多利好的比特币相关政策指引信息

当前市场似乎打破了 7 月初的德国政府抛售的而带动的下跌阴霾，重新变得躁动起来，究其原因在于美国 2024 年总统候选人特朗普在 7 月 13 日遭遇刺杀未遂，一举奠定了其“美国警长”的硬汉形象，让其在 11 月的美国大选中提前取得了巨大优势，伴随而来的拜登退选，民主党新的候选人哈里斯明显在声势上弱了很多，因此市场实际上已经在提前消化特朗普成为新一任美国总统的信息。

考虑到特朗普的政治主张，在经济方面基本可以用以下三个维度来概括：

* 对内低税率，对外高关税；

* 通过降息等手段来降低美元对主要制造业国家的汇率；

* 反对新能源产业，主张提振传统能源产业；

这背后当然与其代表的利益集团——铁锈带蓝领阶级强相关，虽然孤立主义与贸易保护政策对打压国外产品，提振美国本土中低端制造业有明显效果，但考虑到美国目前的产业结构，实施上述政策是需要时间的，且会伴随着较高的通胀压力，即使是特朗普，也需要考虑如何利用美元霸权来一定程度上缓解上述症状。一些迹象表明，其有一定可能选择通过比特币来达成这一目标，因此我的首要关注点即聚焦于此。

为什么这样说，首先特朗普多次阐述了对“美国比特币产能”的关切，例如其主张保证剩余的比特币将在美国生产等，考虑到其对石油相关传统能源产业抱有明显好感，因此刺激比特币矿池这个能源消耗型产业对于提振石油需求，增加产业附加值是一件好事。其次特朗普对比特币的看法相较于上一任期，有明显转变，其从不认可比特币价值，转向认可其作为一种商品的价值，这背后的逻辑还是在于美元定价权优势，由于当前比特币的主要流动性都是与美元锚定的稳定币来维护，因此美元事实上拥有了比特币的定价权优势，通过认定其作为一种商品并极力在全球范围内推广这种共识，将有利于美元资本在该领域建立优势，从而形成收割的效果。

除此之外，在另一个关注点上，笔者的观点与市场较为不同，我认为特朗普将对于 security token 相关的加密货币抱有谨慎的态度，原因在于社会资源的引导，我们知道最近的一个市场热点是 ETH ETF，由此引发了市场对于其他加密资产 ETF 的大规模推出的乐观预期，例如 SOL 等。但我认为考虑到此类加密资产相比于比特币的商品属性，更像是可以获得分红权的股份，而我们知道 ETF 的通过的象征意义更大。这代表官方对于行业态度的转变，这种转变最大的影响在于产业资本的引导效果。这种态度可能造成加密产业与传统产业的资源竞争。考虑到前者属于虚拟经济，高科技与全球范围的特点，明显与民主党更适配一些，而与特朗普的经济政策主张相悖。因此关于这一点，还需要自己观察。

当然不管怎么说，相比于移民政策等，加密政策对于大选来说毕竟是一个较小的议题。而且也不能保证其现在的态度就代表了未来四年就会一直保持，但是短期来看，市场已经开始提前定价了这个乐观预期，所以还是让我们拭目以待。

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