SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240722):拜登退选

Odaily星球日报Published on 2024-07-22Last updated on 2024-07-22

Abstract

昨日凌晨美国民主党总统候选人拜登突然在推特上宣布退选,引发了加密市场的震荡。期权方面,隐含波动率近期呈现出震荡走高的大趋势,由于周末流动性不佳,最近一次新闻事件带来的IV波动显得更为剧烈。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240722):拜登退选

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240722):拜登退选

昨日凌晨美国民主党总统候选人拜登突然在推特上宣布退选,引发了加密市场的震荡,BTC 先一度短线下跌至 66000 下方,而后快速收复全部失地,并在亚盘开市前攀登至 68500 美元阻力位下方,展现出 V 型反转走势。分析师们对于该事件的观点并不统一,有人认为拜登的弃选使得特朗普获胜机会增加,考虑到特朗普曾表示可能会采用比特币作为战略储备资源等一系列拥护加密货币的言论,这则消息对币价产生利好;另外也有人指出,自今年 1 月 6 号的骚乱事件发生以后,美国群众对特朗普的信任也有所减弱,特朗普现在的竞争对手改为贺锦丽,尽管他的胜算仍然高,但比起对拜登时的压倒性差距,新候选人的威胁并不小。随着枪击生还的激情褪去,特朗普获胜的前景似乎又变得有点模糊了起来。但无论如何我们都看到了今年美国政治局势的走向对币价的影响正在逐步放大,两党接下来进一步的任何动作都可能会对短期内币价走势造成影响。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240722):拜登退选

Source: TradingView

宏观方面,本周有制造业/服务业指数/GDP/PCE 等重磅指标发布,考虑到下周即将举行的 FOMC 会议,这周的数据至关重要。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240722):拜登退选

Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar

期权方面,隐含波动率近期呈现出震荡走高的大趋势,由于周末流动性不佳,最近一次新闻事件带来的 IV 波动显得更为剧烈。从期限 IV Curve 上能解读出部分市场的观点,BTC 方面,计划于本月 25-27 号开展的 Bitcoin 2024 大会成为了人们关注的焦点,届时总统候选人特朗普将作为头号嘉宾发表讲话,市场对其定价了高度的不确定性,使得会议之后的到期日 2 AUG 24 获得了较高的 Vol Premium;ETH 方面,原定于 7 月 23 号开始交易的现货 ETF 受到社区的狂热期待,前端的 IV 大步走平,升至 70% Vol 的高位。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240722):拜登退选

Source: Deribit (截至 2 MAY 16: 00 UTC+ 8)

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240722):拜登退选

Source: SignalPlus

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240722):拜登退选

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240722):拜登退选

Data Source: Deribit, ETH 交易总体分布/26 JU L2 4 交易分布

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240722):拜登退选

Data Source: Deribit,BTC 交易总体分布

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240722):拜登退选

Source: Deribit Block Trade

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240722):拜登退选

Source: Deribit Block Trade

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240722):拜登退选

您可在 ChatGPT 4.0 的 Plugin Store 搜索 SignalPlus ,获取实时加密资讯。如果想即时收到我们的更新,欢迎关注我们的推特账号@SignalPlus_Web3 ,或者加入我们的微信群(添加小助手微信:SignalPlus 123)、Telegram 群以及 Discord 社群,和更多朋友一起交流互动。SignalPlus Official Website:https://www.signalplus.com

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What is $BITCOIN

DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN): A Comprehensive Analysis Introduction to DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a blockchain-based project operating on the Solana network, which aims to combine the characteristics of traditional precious metals with the innovation of decentralized technologies. While it shares a name with Bitcoin, often referred to as “digital gold” due to its perception as a store of value, DIGITAL GOLD is a separate token designed to create a unique ecosystem within the Web3 landscape. Its goal is to position itself as a viable alternative digital asset, although specifics regarding its applications and functionalities are still developing. What is DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a cryptocurrency token explicitly designed for use on the Solana blockchain. In contrast to Bitcoin, which provides a widely recognized value storage role, this token appears to focus on broader applications and characteristics. Notable aspects include: Blockchain Infrastructure: The token is built on the Solana blockchain, known for its capacity to handle high-speed and low-cost transactions. Supply Dynamics: DIGITAL GOLD has a maximum supply capped at 100 quadrillion tokens (100P $BITCOIN), although details regarding its circulating supply are currently undisclosed. Utility: While precise functionalities are not explicitly outlined, there are indications that the token could be utilized for various applications, potentially involving decentralized applications (dApps) or asset tokenization strategies. Who is the Creator of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? At present, the identity of the creators and development team behind DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) remains unknown. This situation is typical among many innovative projects within the blockchain space, particularly those aligning with decentralized finance and meme coin phenomena. While such anonymity may foster a community-driven culture, it intensifies concerns about governance and accountability. Who are the Investors of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? The available information indicates that DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) does not have any known institutional backers or prominent venture capital investments. The project seems to operate on a peer-to-peer model focused on community support and adoption rather than traditional funding routes. Its activity and liquidity are primarily situated on decentralized exchanges (DEXs), such as PumpSwap, rather than established centralized trading platforms, further highlighting its grassroots approach. How DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) Works The operational mechanics of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) can be elaborated on based on its blockchain design and network attributes: Consensus Mechanism: By leveraging Solana’s unique proof-of-history (PoH) combined with a proof-of-stake (PoS) model, the project ensures efficient transaction validation contributing to the network's high performance. Tokenomics: While specific deflationary mechanisms have not been extensively detailed, the vast maximum token supply implies that it may cater to microtransactions or niche use cases that are still to be defined. Interoperability: There exists the potential for integration with Solana’s broader ecosystem, including various decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms. However, the details regarding specific integrations remain unspecified. 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Note: This report encompasses synthesised information available as of October 2023, and developments may have transpired beyond the research period.

480 Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

What is $BITCOIN

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