Mt.Gox资金转移的线索跟踪与市场解读

Odaily星球日报Published on 2024-07-22Last updated on 2024-07-22

Abstract

短期空头将利用Mt.Gox事件对市场展开攻击?

下文中 Mt.Gox 资金转移分析,由Web3数据基础设施服务商 iChainfo 提供独家解读:

7 月 22 日,Mt.Gox 钱包地址再次发生异动,Mt.Gox 地址1JJ8oBaqcuLUcCkLwaVqdvJJpERYKwukJz向四个属于 Bitstamp 的钱包分别转移了 0.000017 BTC。

Mt.Gox资金转移的线索跟踪与市场解读

图一: 7 月 22 日 Mt.Gox 资金转移分析

虽然交易金额较低,但是这非常有可能是 Mt.Gox 在大额转账之前进行地址测试,此前 Mt.Gox 在给 Kraken 交易所进行转账之前,也有过此类的操作。

上周开始,备受关注的 Mt.Gox 交易所赔付工作已经展开,Mt.Gox 已经向 Kraken、BitBank 和 SBI VC Trade 转移过比特币,在所有五个可以处理赔偿的交易所中,只剩下 Bitstamp 和 Bitgo 没有收到比特币,今天的操作可能意味着 Mt.Gox 将会向最后两家交易所转移资金。

search.ichainfo.com对 Mt.Gox 交易所的转出资金流向进行了跟踪分析,通过资金流梳理发现,Mt.Gox 钱包中的资金主要流入了六个地址当中,其中有四个地址的后续资金变动,需要投资者格外关注。

我们分析的核心地址是1JbezDVd9VsK9o1Ga9UqLydeuEvhKLAPs6,该地址是 Mt.Gox 交易所资金早期的汇集地址,在今年的 5 月 28 日,有 141, 619 枚比特币通过 8 笔交易汇集于该地址中。

Mt.Gox资金转移的线索跟踪与市场解读

图二:Mt.Gox 资金分析图,来源:search.ichainfo.com

该地址中的比特币目前都已经被转出,比如 7 月 16 日 Kraken 交易所收到的地址就是来自于此,该地址中的资金主要有两大类去向,一大去向是转入支持 Mt.Gox 赔付的交易所中,已知的有 Kraken、BitBank 和 SBI VC Trade,另一大去向便是 Mt.Gox 控制的其他地址中。

Mt.Gox资金转移的线索跟踪与市场解读

图三: 1JbezDVd9VsK9o1Ga9UqLydeuEvhKLAPs6 地址中已经没有比特币,来源:search.ichainfo.com

在这些去向中,search.ichainfo.com发现,Mt.Gox 的资金主要流入以下六个地址当中

3JQieEzccKjFS34oW8KZSGBDndiH1YyFrE疑似是 Kraken 交易所地址,该地址在 7 月 16 日转入 48, 641 BTC,目前资金未移动,后续需要重点关注其东西,该地址资金的转出可能意味着 Kraken 开始向用户赔付比特币。

bc1qrv0v2l9ekrx3lnkeusrzvu2hqyha6ex94nxumlhec4mrye8njm7sn7e4v4是 BitBank 热钱包地址,共转入 1, 544 BTC。

34X3kp5PTrqR9dA9Zf9XwivpE6tnNJdHKB是 SBI VC Trade 热钱包地址,共转入 1, 157 BTC。

18vjnBHWAxU4CPGPqF7Gp9JyqdVBHDct9b为 Mt.Gox 冷钱包地址,目前持有 42, 587 BTC,该地址资金的转出需要密切关注。

1AsHPP7WcGnDLzxW2bUa2FcbJP3eZVEqpx为 Mt.Gox 冷钱包地址,目前持有 47, 228 BTC,该地址资金的转出需要密切关注。

1HRAprcXCzx1YqYv7dcCcDzf3vYVGPv3b2为 Mt.Gox 冷钱包地址,目前持有 526 BTC,虽然持币量不多,但是该地址资金的转出同样也需要关注。

Mt.Gox资金转移的线索跟踪与市场解读

图四:Mt.Gox 资金主要去向地址,来源:search.ichainfo.com

我们把 Mt.Gox 赔付比特币形成的市场卖压分为三个阶段:启动器、爆发期、收割期。从近期的比特币走势来看,在德国政府 7 月 12 日抛压完毕后,比特币价格正在逐渐从此前的低谷中走出。然而在投资者开始又恢复乐观情绪的时候,Mt.Gox 的抛压才刚刚开始。

截止发稿前,Mt.Gox 地址又开始了小额比特币的转移测试,目前赔付处于启动前期准备阶段,大部分客户还没有拿到交易所兑付的比特币。在经过近十年的被动锁仓后,这些客户的收益已经超过了 20 倍,显然经过这些年艰难的申诉赔付过程,大多数客户拿到币后第一时间必然选择卖出兑现利润,如果近 10 万枚比特币在 8 月份集中抛售,将对市场又一次形成巨大冲击。相信空头会利用 Mt.Gox 事件对市场展开攻击,search.ichainfo.com将密切关注这些地址的链上转移动向,敬请关注后续跟踪分析。

文:Auguste

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