SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240719):一盆冷水

Odaily星球日报Published on 2024-07-19Last updated on 2024-07-19

Abstract

已破产的比特币交易所Mt.Gox在过去24小时里报告了多次未经授权的债权人账户登陆尝试,引发了债权人对剩余资产的安全以及币价可能遭受抛压带来的担忧。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240719):一盆冷水

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240719):一盆冷水

已破产的比特币交易所 Mt.Gox 在过去 24 小时里报告了多次未经授权的债权人账户登陆尝试,引发了债权人对剩余资产的安全以及币价可能遭受抛压带来的担忧,市场或担心该事件会对短期币价产生不利影响,再加上近两天的 ETF 流量骤减,逐渐蔓延的避险情绪催生了对资产的抛售,使得 BTC 价格回调至 64000 美元下方,再度测试关键支撑位。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240719):一盆冷水

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240719):一盆冷水

Source: TradingView; Farside Investors

期权方面,整体隐含波动率水平自昨天大幅回落之后表现相对稳定,但仍处在近期高位。值得关注的变化有三点,首先是 BTC 十二月底的 IV 和 RR 都明显走高,或是受到该到期日在 Deribit 市场上大量买 100000-C 的 Flow 影响(见下图)

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240719):一盆冷水

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240719):一盆冷水

Data Source: Deribit,BTC 交易分布

其二是 BTC IV 期限 Curve 走陡的变化相较于 ETH 更加明显,同样是对比七月底和其他更远端的到期日,BTC 到期日之间的差距更为显著,为跨期波动率对冲提供了较好的工具。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240719):一盆冷水

Source: Deribit (截至 19 JUL 16: 00 UTC+ 8)

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240719):一盆冷水

Source: SignalPlus

最后,我们也注意到 2 AUG 24 的 vol skew 与周边期限相比形成了局部高点,然而 BTC 和 ETH 在该到期日上的交易却大相径庭,BTC 70000 C 被大量买入,而 ETH 则是在 3400 C 的位置遭到强力的抛售压力。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240719):一盆冷水

Source: SignalPlus

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240719):一盆冷水

Data Source: Deribit,ETH 交易总体分布

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240719):一盆冷水

Source: Deribit Block Trade

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240719):一盆冷水

Source: Deribit Block Trade

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240719):一盆冷水

您可在 ChatGPT 4.0 的 Plugin Store 搜索 SignalPlus ,获取实时加密资讯。如果想即时收到我们的更新,欢迎关注我们的推特账号@SignalPlus_Web3 ,或者加入我们的微信群(添加小助手微信:SignalPlus 123)、Telegram 群以及 Discord 社群,和更多朋友一起交流互动。SignalPlus Official Website:https://www.signalplus.com

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483 Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

What is $BITCOIN

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