Bitwise Exec预测,以太坊在ETF推出后将达到5000美元

币界网Published on 2024-07-17Last updated on 2024-07-17

币界网报道:

Bitwise Asset Management的首席投资官Matt Hougan周三预测,在以太坊ETF推出后,以太坊的价格可能会飙升至5000美元以上。

他宣称:“[ETF]流入将推动价格创下历史新高,超过5000美元。”。“到年底,我相信会创下新高。”

Hougan的预测是基于这样一种信念,即ETF流入将通过创造新的需求来源来显著影响以太坊的价格,这与比特币基金推出后的情况类似。但这需要一些时间。

他写道:“我认为前几周可能会出现波动,因为110亿美元的灰度以太坊信托基金(ETHE)在转换为ETF后可能会流出资金。”。

他说,预期价格飙升的主要驱动力是供需之间的相互作用。ETF在不改变以太坊潜在供应基本面的情况下引入了新的需求。Hougan指出,自1月份推出以来,比特币ETF已购买263965 BTC,而矿工生产的BTC为129181 BTC,导致价格大幅上涨。

Hougan概述了以太坊可能比比特币受到更大ETF流入影响的三个关键原因。

首先,以太坊的通货膨胀率在过去一年一直是0%,这意味着以太坊的供应量一直保持在1.2亿。这与比特币推出ETF时1.7%的通货膨胀率形成鲜明对比。Hougan表示,基于以太坊的稳定币和代币化基金支持ETH创造和消费之间的平衡,从而导致价格上涨。

其次,霍根指出了利益相关者的动态。与需要出售开采的BTC来支付运营成本的比特币矿工不同,以太坊的利益相关者并没有受到同样的压力。霍根指出:“以太坊每天的强制抛售比比特币少。”。

最后,他指出,ETH的很大一部分被质押或锁定在去中心化金融(DeFi)合约中。他写道:“目前,28%的以太坊被抵押,这意味着它实际上已经退出市场。”。

Hougan表示,他预计以太坊ETF将在前18个月吸引150亿美元的新资产,这一大量涌入可能会推动以太坊从目前约3400美元的交易价格达到新的高度。

以太坊的交易价格约为3400美元,仅比历史最高点低29%,Hougan得出结论,ETF的引入和由此产生的需求动态使以太坊有可能挑战并超越其之前的记录。

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